Center-Right to Dominate in European Elections

Deutche Welle ^ | April 14 2004 | EUobserver.com

[knighthawk]

Center-right parties will do well in European elections in Germany, Poland and the UK while making losses in several smaller states, according to a study for public affairs company Burson-Marsteller, which is based on the premise that parties in government will do badly and that large parties in opposition will do well.

The centre-right EPP-ED, which is currently the biggest group in the European Parliament, is expected to get 285 (39%) seats in the 732-seat assembly. The socialists are predicted to come in with 217 (30%) seats and the liberals with 73 (10%) -- exactly the order of the three main groups in the parliament today. However, the study, carried out by Professor Simon Hix of the London School of Economics and Professor Michael Marsh of Trinity College, also predicts some important changes.

The eurosceptic EDD group is "unlikely to secure enough MEPs to form a group" and there "may be as many as 50 non-attached MEPs," according to the report. Also, if the votes fall the way the report predicts, the liberals will play a pivotal role in EU legislation, meaning they could side with the socialists on environmental issues and with the conservatives on economic issues.

If the liberals form an alliance with the centre-right, they would have over 50 percent of the seats in the parliament so they could apply some interesting political leverage when the Parliament chooses top positions in the EU such as the presidents of the European Commission and the Parliament.

[knighthawk]

Europe-list

If people want on or off this list, please let me know.

[bogdanPolska12]

Thank you for your ping Knight.

[BJClinton]

I've been quite confused for sometime about what "conservative" and "liberal" mean in European politics.

[facedown]

Good. Maybe they'll be more amenable to helping out in the ME.

[Doug Loss]

I've been quite confused for sometime about what "conservative" and "liberal" mean in European politics.

It's simple. "Conservative" in Europe means "moderate Democrat" trending toward Liberal in the US. "Liberal" in Europe means "socialist" in the US. "Socialist" in Europe means "communist" in the US. See?

[BJClinton]

Thanks. That's what I figured.

[RussianConservative]

Liberal mean free markets with little government control or taxation, equivalent of American libritarian. That is what it mean liberal in most of world, it is in US that meaning is change. Conservative is equivalent of US republicans.

[RussianConservative]

Liberal mean free markets with little government control or taxation, equivalent of American libritarian. That is what it mean liberal in most of world, it is in US that meaning is change. Conservative is equivalent of US republicans.

[WashingtonSource]

I think the political partiess in Europe are more along the following lines: conservatives are usually center right and sometimes center left (as in France). That would be somewhere between a moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican. Socialists are socialists or even Communists. There are actual Communist Parties beyond this that used to be quite large in places like Italy and France.

Liberals, however, favor free markets. There is no real Liberal Party in France, for example, while Germany does have such a party. Finally, there are the ultra left Greens and also the so called "far right" anti-immigrant nationalist parties (which can otherwise be socialist). In places like Germany, for example, the small Liberal Party often allies with the conservatives (Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists)to form governments in various lander (states) and nationally. The Socialists allie with the Greens to form a ruling coaliation.

[McGavin999]

Conservative means liberal in europe and liberal means communist. :o)

[BJClinton]

Conservative is equivalent of US republicans.

Chiraq is considered 'conservative' by many, I don't see how he could be considered 'Republican' exept as a RINO. I'm not picking on your ethnicity, but aren't Eastern European Communists considered 'conservative' in their respective countries?

[BJClinton]

Now that is much more insightful. Aren't there 'real conservatives' in Holland and Poland?

[Doug Loss]

To be completely fair, the terms Conservative and Liberal measure completely different axes in Europe and the US. It's unfortunate that we use the same terms for them. "Conservative" here means for fiscal restraint, personal responsibility, and limited, well-defined roles for government. "Liberal" means for government as primary decision maker in all aspects of life.

In Europe, I suspect these terms are applied more along a nationalist/internationalist axis, where the "Conservative" is more nationalistic and traditionalist and the "Liberal" is more pan-European in outlook. How about some comments from the Europeans here--does this seem close to accurate?

[knighthawk]

At your service

And thanks for all your pings!

[bogdanPolska12]

Europe is divided in two fundamentally different groups of people. And that really needs to be taken in account.

First; Western Europe, once a bastion of Christianity, became a bastion of socialism ideas. Western Europe is a birth place of communism - Engle’s and Marx ideas came from old Prussia.

Eastern Europe - totally different mentality and value of life. Because of our geopolitical surroundings, in Eastern Europe and natural resources, especially in Russia most of Eastern Countries in Europe where attacked. And most of them safe Western Europe behind. Strong Christian believes in Eastern Europe keeps them strong. Either be Orthodox Russian, or Serbian, or Pole, or others from Eastern Europe our Slavic blood flows with energy and wisdom and strength.

Each part of Europe is different. But each one of them is base on long history of their backgrounds. That does not mean, I don’t like other people from different countries in Europe. I do like them. Except socialist from Brussel with their comunnist ideas.

But because of history and some stupid thing Western Europe has done, we have hesitation to believe them or trust them.

To say, all people in Western Europe are evil would be ridiculous. There are good people in Western and Eastern Europe and they know what is to fight for freedom.

[RussianConservative]

In social values they some what conservative, which is also Putin, in political they leftwing while Putin right wing, in economic Putin liberal while they Leftwing but "conservative" in reference of last 10 years, if reference of nation history as whole then they leftest still.

[RightWhale]

It's different in Canada, too. Conservative appears to mean favoring keeping the Socialist gov't, and Liberal throwing them out. Or something like that. Canadian Conservatives are nothing like Republican Conservatives.

[BJClinton]

I'm so confused. Thanks.