Electoral College Breakdown 2004, April 14th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 4/14/04

[Dales]

Pingaling :-)

[Dales]

Thanks for alerting me to mistakes and to new polls!

[not-alone]

thanks

[KQQL]

Look at the internals of Rasmussen poll,
they all favor Bush and he has Kerry ahead by 1%.
His poll is one day machine JUNK..

His model is a flawed.

Mason dixon, Research 2000 know FL.

-----

[AntiGuv]

Which election featured the first independent media matchup poll, and did it get the election right?

Wasn't there a 1936 poll that had Alf Landon defeating Franklin Roosevelt in a 57-43% landslide?

[txjeep]

Good analysis. I think what will open up the race for Bush is when he has a few head-to-head debates with Kerry. Kerry will come across as angry and unlikeable and Bush will come across as the likeable honest man that he is. The vaunted undecided voters will go with the likeable guy, Bush.

Oh, and you are right on the economy. There is more than 6 months of data proving the economy is strong, maybe too strong. This will become harder for the press to spin and hide as time goes on. Improving job numbers is the real key and March was phenomenal. Iraq will hopefully be a positive by November.

[AntiGuv]

BTW, for any pollsters watching ;^) the states in most dire need of polling are Arkansas and Delaware...

[1Old Pro]

Ah, good to see these again. I like the new color coding where Bush gets the Blue and the commie Dem gets the Red. It's much less confusing that way.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Looks close, thanks for your work!

[Dales]

Is that your final answer? :-)

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I would point out that one of the main reasons Florida was such a nailbiter was the networks calling the state for Algore an hour before the polls in the heavily conservative Panhandle closed, costing Dubya around a 10,000 vote cushion. Bill Sammon recounts how damaging this 'mistake' was to the Bush campaign in "At Any Cost".

[TomEwall]

I knew the Rasmussen poll was coming out and wasn't looking forward to it, although it does show a 2 point move from their previous poll. I share your skepticism. With Florida's economy booming, no Southerner on the ticked, no Lieberman, it's hard to see that Florida would not have moved in Bush's direction.

Most of the other Rasmussen state polls (except Missouri) aren't very kind to Bush either viz a viz other polls.

[BobinIL]

It is a long time until November and if we capture Bin laden, Al Zwaherie (sp) or find some WMD's between now and then its game, set, match

[dead]

Nice work. Bump!

[XBob]

thanks much for the excellent work.

[codercpc]

Does anyone have information to the "keys" of victory for Presidential elections?

I don't know the exact name of the formula, but I remember it from the 2000 election. It has a set of 10-15 criteria that rates incumbents, and if they "turn" a certain number of the keys, it in the past indicated victory or defeat of incumbents.

Any idea of what I am talking about, or is my mind that faulty?

[Aeronaut]

Thanks for posting this. I will still maintain that the Minnesota information is seroiusly flawed due to the "tweak factor" of the Minneapolis Red Star.

[nyconse]

The map lists Georgia as "leaning" come on....Georgia will go to Bush. If they have this wrong then all other data is suspect.

[JerseyHighlander]

I ripped into you for posting your slight edge to Bush in New Jersey in two previous ECB updates. My apologies, you called this one way ahead of the pack. It seems the next question is whether Nader will have any organized support in NJ. And if he will be on the ballot at all.

Pinning the GOP's hopes on Nader.
Getting set up for the fall when Nader withdraws at the last moment and supports Kerry? Is there a "Republicans for Nader" club yet? The problem with the FDU poll is that it says Nader is pulling only from Kerry in NJ, while other comparable states have Nader drawing votes from both candidates. It would be interesting to hear Republican Liberty Caucus and New Jersey Libertarian Party officials take on this unique situation in NJ. If Perot's 1992 showing, if Sabrin's Libertarian gubernatorial results, and Nader's 3% in 2000 indicate anything, is that NJ is beyond party politics.

NEW JERSEY
1,284,173 Bush (40.3%)
1,788,850 Gore (56.1%)
94,554 Nader (3.0%)
19,649 Other (0.6%)

Can Nader pull in another 60000-80000 voters in NJ this year? That's a lot of highly disaffected people to get motivated to even show up for election day.