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How likely is human extinction?
Mail & Guardian Online ^ | Tuesday, April 13, 2004 | Kate Ravilious

Posted on 04/14/2004 6:15:04 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

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To: Einigkeit_Recht_Freiheit
"How can you tell the difference?"

You'll know it when you see it. I don't expect to be here for the final curtain call of humankind.
21 posted on 04/14/2004 7:01:01 AM PDT by familyofman
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To: blam
"Toba" 75,000 years ago and "human gene record" (blam). Wow, this is interesting stuff, I wasn't aware of. Very, very interesting, worth doing some personal research on.
22 posted on 04/14/2004 7:04:45 AM PDT by Brian_Baldwin
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To: Momaw Nadon
I'd say chances are excellent.

I also used to think Human "De-evolution" was impossible. But then we do have a Democratic Party. So there goes that hope.

23 posted on 04/14/2004 7:05:16 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Democrats.. Socialists..Commies..Traitors...Who can tell the difference?)
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To: MattinNJ
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml

Interesting BBC piece (with transcript) on the Yellowstone supervolcano. I'm no vulcanologist, but my read is that there's enough potential energy there to put an all-out nuclear exchange to shame.
24 posted on 04/14/2004 7:05:18 AM PDT by Riley
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To: VadeRetro; jennyp; Junior; longshadow; RadioAstronomer; Physicist; LogicWings; Doctor Stochastic; ..
PING. [This list is for the evolution side of evolution threads, and some other science topics like cosmology. Long-time list members get all pings, but can request evo-only status. New additions will be evo-only, but can request all pings. FReepmail me to be added or dropped. Specify all pings or you'll get evo-pings only.]
25 posted on 04/14/2004 7:11:37 AM PDT by PatrickHenry (Why yes, that IS a gun in my pocket.)
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To: blam
"The explosion of Toba 75,000 years ago reduced the worldwide population of humans to 2,000 and this event is still seen in the human genetic record."

So, what is the evidence in the fossil record recording the similarly large extinction of multiple species that would also have happened along with this?? At this point, color me largely skeptical.

26 posted on 04/14/2004 7:13:22 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Most species seem to have long stable periods followed by a burst of change: not the slow, steady process predicted by natural selection.

I reject the premise that morphological stability equals genetic stagnation, or that morphological change necessarily represents huge genetic changes. The fossil record records only morphology, while this "telomere erosion" hypothesis speaks only to genetics.

27 posted on 04/14/2004 7:21:41 AM PDT by Physicist
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To: blam
Some interesting information I found on Toba, doing some quick research after reading the post in this thread on Toba and which was the first I recall of ever hearing about this ancient event:

The eruption of 2,800 cubic km of magma at Toba caldera 75,000 years ago was the largest eruption in the last 2 million years. The eruption may have release as much as 10E12 kg of sulfuric acid, an order of magnitude more than Laki in 1783 and Tambora in 1815, two of the greatest Holocene eruptions. The Toba eruption may have caused about 3 to 4 degree C cooling at the surface but this impact is hard to detect because of concurrent glacial conditions (Sigurdsson, 1990).

Formed by a stupendous prehistoric volcanic explosion, the 100 km long lake is the largest is Southeast Asia and one of the deepest and highest in the world. The drama of that cataclysmic birth persist in 500 meter cliffs dropping into the blue-green waters, Surrounded by steep, pine covered sloped, the climate is fresh and pleasant, with just enough rain to support the lush vegetation.

Smoke Over Lake Toba, Indonesia(NASA Visible Earth)

The super-eruption of Toba, did it cause a human bottleneck?   FJ Gathorne-Hardy1, WEH Harcourt-Smith2, 1 Archaeology department, West Street, Sheffield University S1 4ET, 2 Palaeontology department, AMNH, Central Park West 79th Street, NYC, NY10024, U.S.A: It has been claimed that the super-eruption of Toba, Indonesia, about 73.5 Ka, caused a global “volcanic winter” which was responsible for a bottleneck in human populations. We show that the eruption’s radius of direct impact was probably less than 350 km and that the global cooling associated with Toba was not unusual. We argue that at 73.5 Ka humans were adaptable and wide-ranging omnivores, so unlikely to suffer greatly from global cooling. No plant or animal extinction is attributed to the effects of the eruption. Genetic evidence appears not to support the hypothesis of a Toba-induced population bottleneck. We conclude that the Toba super-eruption is unlikely to have caused a bottleneck in human populations.

COMMENT: Above argues against effect of Toba on humans. However ...

URI oceanographers investigate link between last Ice Age and Indonesian volcanic eruptions
January 27, 2004
Approximately 75,000 years ago, a massive explosive eruption from a volcano in western Indonesia (Toba caldera) coincided with the onset of the Earth's last Ice Age.
In the current issue of Geology, University of Rhode Island geological oceanographers Meng-Yang Lee and Steven Carey; Chang-Hwa Chen and Yoshiyuki Iizuka of the Academia Sinica in Taiwan; and Kuo-Yen Wei of National Taiwan University describe their investigation into the possibility that eruptions from the Toba caldera on the island of Sumatra caused a severe "volcanic winter" and the initiation of a glacial period.
The magnitude of the oldest Toba eruptions had not previously been documented due to the difficulty in recognizing their widespread erupted products in marine sediments. Lee and the team of scientists present new data on the distribution of volcanic ash from the oldest Toba eruption in Ocean Drilling Program cores and piston cores in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. By using high-resolution litho-, magneto-, and oxygen isotope stratigraphic records, the geologists were able to clarify the correlation between distribution patterns in the cores, refine the age of the layers, and reestimate the eruptive volume of the early eruption of Toba.
The results of their analysis indicate that the glass shards from the first Toba eruption 788,000 years ago were dispersed more than 2000 miles from the source. Fallout from the eruption was deposited from clouds that drifted over both the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, producing an extensive ash blanket that may have been comparable in size to that of the last Toba eruption 75,000 years ago.
Comparing material from the oldest Toba eruption to that of the youngest, or last, Toba eruption, the scientists were able to draw surprising conclusions. The youngest Toba eruption (75,000 years ago) has been proposed as a triggering mechanism for the onset of large-scale glaciation, which brought the last interglacial stage to its end. The coincidence of the oldest Toba eruption with the transition from a glacial stage to an interglacial stage, however, appears to be an opposite effect.
Although the estimated volume of the oldest Toba eruption is not as large as the youngest Toba, they are both enormous eruptions involving discharges of tremendous amounts of magma. However, the warming trend following the oldest supereruption of the Toba appears to suggest that factors other than volcanism have played more influencing roles in governing glacial to interglacial transitions over the last 3 million years.
University of Rhode Island

Genomics, evolution, history, and geography
By polarbearcub , Section Biology
Posted on Mon Apr 22nd, 2002 at 04:04:46 PM PST
Dinosaurs were terminated during KT boundary, which is long long long time ago (65 million years ago). With very limited fossil record and the abrupt extinction of dinosaur, it is difficult and meaningless to study the "evolution" of dinosaur. More interesting is what trigger this event, which is a big unknown, some said asteroid, some said volcano, some said disease.
Human evolution is different, it is recent, there is fossil evidence and genetic evidence and we are not extinct yet =). Genetic evidence (mtDNA, HLA, Y chromosome, Alu sequence) provides us lots of insight about evolution. For example, just by estimate coalescence time and diversity about genetic systems, genetic evidence can tell us about time of human origin, which was around 2 million years ago, and location, which was Africa.
One interesting fact is that human evolution went through a bottleneck event around 75 thousand years ago. And there is evidence that during this bottleneck event, human population went from 100,000 to 10,000. With this short population expansion from a small population after such a recent bottleneck, no wonder we are so similar genetically. So what was going on during this bottleneck? It turns out there was a giant eruption from volcano Toba, in Indonesia. This event was 10,000 more powerful than St. Helen and decreased global temperature by as much as 15 degree Celsius!

COMMENTS: Haven’t found any gene link yet. Found arguments back and forth on the real impact of Toba on human evolution or decrease in population.

28 posted on 04/14/2004 7:22:44 AM PDT by Brian_Baldwin
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To: Brian_Baldwin
Nope, now I am finding information on DNA impact, from the "Free Dictionary" some Genetic site:

Humans DNA dna (lower case) refers the enzymes involved in dna replication. Types dnaA dnaB dnaC dnaG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNA (uppercase) refers to deoxyribonucleic acid. See DNA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Warning: This page may be edited, except for the preamble. The first two paragraphs may not be edited until disputes have been resolved on the discussion page. ..... Click the link for more information. evidence suggests that humans today are a legacy of a population bottleneck which occurred 70,000 years ago. This would have had the result of limiting the overall level of genetic diversity in the human species, possibly by a large amount.

29 posted on 04/14/2004 7:25:47 AM PDT by Brian_Baldwin
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To: Brian_Baldwin
Opps! Left of some information. Also, I don't think the science folks at this site wanted me to post this, but :

massive volcanic eruption changed the course of human history by severely reducing the human populations (called a 'bottleneck In population genetics and evolutionary biology, a population bottleneck (or genetic bottleneck) is an evolutionary event in which a significant percentage of a population or species is killed or otherwise prevented from reproducing, and the population is reduced by 50% or more, often by several orders of magnitude. A graph of this change resembles the neck of a bottle, from wide to narrow; hence the name. ..... Click the link for more information. '): Around 75,000 years ago the Toba Lake Toba is a large lake, 100km long and 30km wide, in the middle of the northern part of the Indonesian island of Sumatra. Geology In 1949 the Dutch geologist Rein van Bemmelen reported that Lake Toba was surrounded by a layer of ignimbrite rocks, and was a large volcanic caldera. Later researchers found rhyolite ash similar to that in the ignimbrite around Toba in Malaysia and India, 3000km away. Oceanographers discovered Toba ash on the floor of the eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. ..... Click the link for more information. supervolcano The term supervolcano has no specifically defined scientific meaning. It was coined by the producers of a BBC Popular Science programme in 2000 to refer to volcanoes that have generated Earth's largest volcanic eruptions. As such, a supervolcano would be one that has produced an exceedingly large, catastrophic explosive eruption and a giant caldera. Because there is no well-defined minimum ..... Click the link for more information. in Indonesia The Republic of Indonesia is a large archipelago located between the South East Asian peninsula and Australia, between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Indonesia borders Malaysia on the island of Borneo, Papua New Guinea on the island of New Guinea and East Timor on the island of Timor. Republik Indonesia (In Detail) (Full size) National motto: Bhinneka Tunggal Ika (Old Javanese: Unity in Diversity) ..... Click the link for more information. erupted with a force three thousand times more powerful than Mount St. Helens Mount St. Helens (MSH) is a volcano in Skamania County, Washington state, in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. It forms part of the Cascade Range. MSH erupted catastrophically at 08:32 on Sunday, May 18, 1980. Before the eruption, the summit of Mount St. Helens was 9,677 feet (2,950 meters). The eruption reduced its peak to 8,364 feet (2,550 m) in elevation and replaced it with a one-mile-wide (1.5 km) horseshoe-shaped crater. ..... Click the link for more information. .

30 posted on 04/14/2004 7:28:21 AM PDT by Brian_Baldwin
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To: camle; Alkhin
Red Dwarf ping...
31 posted on 04/14/2004 7:29:43 AM PDT by null and void (Imagine a world where the "F" in f'in in Kerry stood for FReeper...)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Long before this becomes an issue (and with a little luck) nanotech medicine will figure out how to build up telomeres, especially since they seem related to aging.
32 posted on 04/14/2004 7:29:44 AM PDT by Little Ray (John Ffing sKerry: Just a gigolo!)
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To: MattinNJ
"I remember reading in one of Bill Bryson's books that Yellowstone is a giant volcano and could eventually wipe out mankind."

It's on a 600,000 year cycle and is presently 40,000 years overdue. Recently, portions of Yellowstone have been sectioned off (no public access) because of extreme temperature increases not seen before.

33 posted on 04/14/2004 7:30:00 AM PDT by blam
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To: null and void
is that you, Rimmer?
34 posted on 04/14/2004 7:30:37 AM PDT by camle (keep your mind open and somebody will fill it with something for you))
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To: familyofman
You'll know it when you see it. I don't expect to be here for the final curtain call of humankind.

At this rate, you might be...

35 posted on 04/14/2004 7:31:22 AM PDT by null and void (Imagine a world where the "F" in f'in in Kerry stood for FReeper...)
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To: camle
Kryten, mum...
36 posted on 04/14/2004 7:34:48 AM PDT by null and void (Imagine a world where the "F" in f'in in Kerry stood for FReeper...)
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To: Iron Matron
BTW, the only humans that were likely to have jumped out of trees are democrats, and their extiction would be no great loss.

Depends on what you mean by human. Some of our non-Homo Sapiens ancestors were certainly arboreal, but the hominids that were around 200,000 years ago did not live in trees, AFAIK.

37 posted on 04/14/2004 7:35:27 AM PDT by Modernman (Work is the curse of the drinking classes. -Oscar Wilde)
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To: sheltonmac
oes anyone else find it strange that the theory of evolution must constantly evolve in order to avoid becoming extinct? It's also interesting to note the consistent use of phrases like "current estimates suggest..." and "more experiments need to be done..." as well as references to the baffling phenomenon of sudden "fits and starts" that defy traditional evolutionary thought.

Any honest scientist will tell you that part of the deal of being a scientist is accepting the fact that theories change, are replaced or are disproven over time. That's just the nature of the beast.

38 posted on 04/14/2004 7:38:45 AM PDT by Modernman (Work is the curse of the drinking classes. -Oscar Wilde)
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To: Momaw Nadon
>How likely is human extinction?

Pretty damn likely
if we're to judge the future
by the red hot now . . .

39 posted on 04/14/2004 7:42:48 AM PDT by theFIRMbss
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To: Iron Matron
BTW, the only humans that were likely to have jumped out of trees are democrats, and their extiction would be no great loss.

Jumped? I thought they fell...

40 posted on 04/14/2004 7:48:36 AM PDT by null and void (Imagine a world where the "F" in f'in in Kerry stood for FReeper...)
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