An Open letter to President Bush (End run vs. Outsourcing)

Me | Me

[Havoc]

And it can do this because the U.S. doesn't "protect" old phone operators jobs from being replaced by computers. Ditto for Java programmers being replaced by HTML software design programs, or system administrators from network automation software.

You're talking about obselescence. My job isn't obsolete and isn't going to be. It was taken from me and given to a Mexican because they're Mexican and cheaper as a matter of course. The two things do not compare any more than trying to compare japanese outsourcing to US outsourcing. The Japanese aren't outsourcing to do an end run around their own system to produce goods and services for their own market. Nor are they violating their own constitution on multiple points to do so. It's a dishonest argument or rather I guess we should just call it a lie.. that's all deciet is.

[Sam the Sham]

It may be something that isn't 'smaller gov't', but it will address the issue, head on, and will remove yet another 'Rat talking point. It's an election year, and he's proven he's no dummy (to me, at least.) Any time Pres. Bush appears to be ignoring an issue, and is getting slammed in polls, he comes back. Be patient. (Even though, as Pres., he doesn't have to.)

That would require a paradigm shift for Bush and his circle on the level of their becoming Muslims. They are completely and totally economically on the side of the MNC and the cause of the MNC is outsourcing. What do you think people do after they leave public life ? They work for MNC's. It's like ambassadors to Saudi Arabia turning into Saudi lobbyists. They aren't about to disrupt the gravy train.

Nothing short of abolishing the H1B program instead of doing his best to enlarge it (his amnesty program would amount to no limit on H1B's) or similar steps would help the perception of him at this point.

[lelio]

The difference, of course, is in various transaction costs (e.g. red tape, bribes, crime, chaos, and most of all, in currency valuations).

The biggest difference between China and India versus Nigeria is currency valuations? Not the huge factories built by the state in China nor the paid for university educations and lower cost of living in India?

And if the Dollar plunges (it's already dropped 20% against the Euro since Bush/Greenspan stopped intervening in the currency markets to buy Dollars), then suddenly the cost of Chinese and Indian goods and services skyrockets.

Skyrockets .. by 20-30%. I'm not sure how that's supposed to make a 50 cent an hour Chinese worker 20 cents an hour more expensive versus $30 an hour here.

I believe that currency manipulation is a part of the problem, but it isn't the major one like you claim. Its a combination of a general lower standard of living and government involvment in the economy.

[ARCADIA]

It is this creative destruction that makes us more and more competitive each year.

Layoffs are fine. However, for your theory to hold true we would have to see a correspondent expansion in other sectors (those highly competitive ones) and that has not materialized. No one cares if JAVA programers disappear in favor of XYZ programmers, the majority would simply move on to the more advanced language and some would remain to support the legacy systems. It is when you have no realistic job alternative that we have a problem, and that is where we are today.

[rudypoot]

If you have a solution I'd love to hear it.

[Sam the Sham]

Indeed. Karl Marx's entire point of Das Kapital was that *every* capitalist society would get progressively poorer each year, until things got so bad that the workers all rebelled and overthrew the "ruling classes."

But Marx has a poor historical track record. Socialist nations such as North Korea and Cuba have faired rather poorly compared to their capitalistic neighbors in South Korea and the U.S., for instance.

So I'd take Marx with a grain of salt. If he said it, it's probably wrong.

What Marx did not anticipate was the social welfare state.

Marx lived in an age of limited wars and small, professional armies. After the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 there was a continent wide shift to huge conscript armies comprising practically every male between 18 and 45 and an ever costlier arms race, particularly naval (between 1870 and 1914 naval military technology zoomed from ironclads to armored cruisers to pre-dreadnoughts to dreadnoughts. all very expensive.). This meant that the security of the state now depended on the loyalty of poor people who would now be asked to die for it. So there was a sound national security reason for insuring the loyalty of the working class with social welfare measures.

After the collapse of communism, MNC's frankly don't think they need nation states anymore. Wars in any case are back to being fought by small, professional armies instead of masses of conscript riflemen. So they can act like the "suck it up, loser" capitalism of Marx's time and freely "immiserate the masses".

[Havoc]

I was just trying to jerk a knot in his tail to make him stop and think about the fact that the planet is likely reading this by now. I'm already getting pinged by people from half of everywhere and on a holiday. And I only posted it here. Wonder what would happen if I sent it to Fox LOL

[rudypoot]

It doesn't damn my whole company to have my job back. Not unless outsourcing isn't done away with, and that's the point. Outsourcing is the cause of all of this. Were it not for outsourcing, my employer would not have had to outsource. But because of it, it was either outsource or lose the contract to someone who would.

I can't understand this paragraph. I think you are trying to say that paying you a livable wage in the US doesn't hurt the company if outsourcing was made illegal. Is that correct? If this is true then the US government must make the same restrictions on foreign companies in order to do business here because it has to ensure a level playing field. Would you agree with that? I can understand your anger but please stop the insults, they don't help you or me.

[Southack]

"Silly analogy. 1. Nigeria has a deserved reputation as a den of thieves and scammers. 2. A country of raging religious warfare is a poor investment climate. 3. Pervasive failed state violence in the region. 4. Poor communications infrastructure."

No, it's a spot on target analogy because it just got you to think of reasons why merely having cheaper *labor* aren't the end all and be all of where the jobs go.

Average Nigerian labor (for 47% of their population) is $100 per year. Average Chinese labor is $1,000 per year, ten times the average Nigerian labor rate. Ergo, something *else* besides cheap labor is in play. That's the whole point.

People who claim that they are only being replaced by "cheap labor" can't explain why the even cheaper Nigerian labor isn't beating the Chinese and Indians.

[Southack]

"But, what would happen to consumer prices at that point? We no longer manufacture much of anything within our borders and new industries will be years in the making."

Oh please. Imports to the U.S. amount to 9.5% of our annual GDP. Exports from the U.S. amount to 5.5% of our GDP.

That's our world trade. That's oil. That's $110 Billion per year of trade with China. That's all the cars that we import from Japan and Europe. That's all of India, etc.

Add it all up and the sum of imports and exports is 15% of our GDP. Yet you are screaming like Chicken Little about the sky falling as if the U.S. no longer made anything (GM alone makes more cars per year than all of the companies in Japan, combined) now that we are an information society.

Well, where do you get that other 85% of our economy if we aren't importing it?! Do you think that Boeing is importing aircraft or rocket motors?! Do you think that entire homes are being imported from Thailand?!

Anyway, my point is that you are missing the big picture. The big picture is that 85% of the U.S. economy is domestic. It wouldn't matter to that 85% of our economy if all foreign trade stopped altogether. It certainly doesn't have much impact on consumer prices if 4% (the difference of imports and exports) of our GDP goes up 40% in cost (especially considering the domestic alternatives that will replace foerign imports as prices on such goods and services increase).

The U.S. has an internal economy. Nations like China and India have external economies. Very different things happen to such different economies based on foreign exchange values.

[Havoc]

I can't understand this paragraph. I think you are trying to say that paying you a livable wage in the US doesn't hurt the company if outsourcing was made illegal. Is that correct?

I think you understand it well enough once again to attempt twisting it like you've tried to turn everything else on me and make it my fault that I'm losing my job and trying to make me into a bad guy for protesting.

If this is true then the US government must make the same restrictions on foreign companies in order to do business here because it has to ensure a level playing field.

Yes, I would accept that axiomatically as an ethical consequence. But, probably not in the manner you're trying to shape the argument into. Show me a company that has created jobs in the US to sell products in their home country in order to do an endrun around their own system. You won't find it. You won't find it because the US cost of living is pretty much higher than anyplace else on the planet. And I've already responded to this point several times in this thread - including in the letter which you appear not to have read. So, you can save the argument that Isuzu, honda et al would have to close up shop and go home. They are producing product for this market in this market by the laws, rules, rights and wage standards of this market. It is only US companies that are running to other countries to do an endrun around our system claiming they can't produce products here. Other countries aren't having any problem of it. And Japan is a prime example!!

I can understand your anger but please stop the insults, they don't help you or me.

Go back and read what you accuse me of, how you've twisted the situation and blamed me and then you tell me about insults. I'm neither blind nor stupid. If you wish to insult me, expect to get it back. I can talk amicably and deal with intelligent questions; but, when you guys turn me into a bad guy for protesting the loss of my job - that is just sick and reprehensible and it's why others are pointing it out as well. I don't want to see Bush lose in the fall; but, if you guys with your attitudes were put on display before the public the way you have cross-examined and accused me today - Kerry would win in a walk and we'd lose both houses. I do not want that; but, you're type just can't help but be the way you are. And when people see it, we'll be screwed. And I'm sorry; but, it's bad enough ya'll are screwing me let alone yourselves and everyone else.

[Southack]

"Tell you what, why not let's just put this thread on CSpan as an advertisement for the Republican Candidate for the Presidency and see how the public responds, shall we?"

Actually, I've counted at least four recent articles that the liberals have run in the mainstream press in their attempt to make this a big issue.

But there simply isn't any interest in the matter. The vast majority of Americans are employed, after all, and that's hardly a group of people to be sympathetic to that 5.7% of our population who is out on the street at the moment.

You can howl as much as you like in public about "outsourcing," and you may even find a few fellow unemployed posters to comiserate with, but it's not going to be a big campaign issue.

The unions didn't even bother to yell at Clinton for getting NAFTA ratified in the Senate.

On the other hand, Bush's mere implementation of steel tariffs caused prices to rise and yells to be heard around the world. Protectionism simply isn't politically viable.

Or put another way: you can't yell enough to get politicians to give you your old job back. It's gone. Bye, bye.

And you can't sue it back with lawyers or legislate it back with politicians. Just like phone switchboard operators being replaced with computers and newspaper boys being replaced with street vending machines, so too are IT jobs being replaced by better network management software (in the case of system administrators) and by better design software (in the case of Java programmers) and by foreign programmers (in those cases where mere mindless grunt work is required - hey, just because it is "IT" doesn't mean that it is high tech).

[Southack]

"You are just using the standard free traitor debate technique of avoiding the point and casting disparaging remarks. Chip designers jobs are NOT being phased out just shipped out."

No, the demand for innovative new chips is small enough to be met by a very few people. Most new chip designs aren't needed simply because we're using CPU's and code rather than the dedicated hardware solutions of the past. Existing hardware + new firmware solves more problems for less money than designing all new hardware. Moreover, what few new chip designs are required are often developed by a "designer" simply putting together components of existing designs...using a software program to match up each level of the chip as desired.

Again, that's good news for corporations and the consumers who buy from them, and bad news for chip designer salaries...just as switchboard operators saw their demand decrease, so too does other fields...even "high tech."

[YankeeReb]

I won't pretend to have an easy answer for you because there is none. It's easy for people making a good salary to say "start your own business", or "nobody owes you a job" but until you've seen a career that you've worked hard at, and that you've loved get sent overseas while those sending it overseas get fatter bonuses, then you don't know.

I spent 12 years in IT, had some really great jobs, made decent money and rarely missed a deadline or even a day of work. All that didn't matter, one day I was called in and told I was fired. Heck, when I went in I was thinking it was for a promotion. No warning, nothing. This was 3 weeks before 9/11 so right after that IT went into freefall. I bounced around for the next 2 years in odd jobs hoping things would turn around, still nothing. Then it dawned on me, one of the few fields that can't be outsourced was construction, particularly the trades. Plumbing, HVAC , electrician are all licensed, so it's harder to flood the market with illegals, so thats the route I went.

It's been tough, at 43 I'm making what I did at 23, but in a few years I'll be licensed and able to start my own business. As a side benifit, I'm in the best physical shape I've been in since I got out of the service.

The point is, don't get discouraged, and don't let the free traitors make you feel like you somehow deserve this, just seriously consider making the move out of IT.

[Southack]

"You're talking about obselescence. My job isn't obsolete and isn't going to be. It was taken from me and given to a Mexican because they're Mexican and cheaper as a matter of course."

If your competition is doing your same job for less money, then yes, you are obsolete.

[Havoc]

But there simply isn't any interest in the matter.

No interest in the matter is why the polls have gone south and Bush's poll numbers are taking a huge hit on the jobs issue. Right. Care to yank our chains on that one again. The reason the Democrats are on it is because it is getting response - else they would have dropped it already. They needed an issue and you guys gave them one. Everyone with a job that doesn't require that job to be here in the states is worried about losing it now. And you can't pacify that with swipes at them being responsible for losing their own jobs. My home town employs workers from Chrysler, Benz, & Delphi. Delphi is packing up and leaving for mexico this summer to take advantage of slave labor, that will be a massive hit to the middle class. And if you think for one second they won't blame a President that said it's good for them to lose their jobs on national TV, you're out of your bloody mind. If you think the Unions won't back Kerry, you're nuts. And if you think that chunk of the Middle class won't have legs going after us, you sir are from another planet.

[ARCADIA]

Yet you are screaming like Chicken Little about the sky falling as if the U.S. no longer made anything (GM alone makes more cars per year than all of the companies in Japan, combined) now that we are an information society.

It is not as simple as comparing GDP and Imports. The GDP number includes a number of intangibles. If I import a component for 10 cents, brand it General Motors and sell it for a dollar; the GDP reads $1.00 and the imports $0.10. Yet the dollar worth of GDP will go to zero if the imported component gets expensive enough. GM might make more cars here, but a quick peak under the hood will quickly undermine your exuberance.

[Southack]

"It is when you have no realistic job alternative that we have a problem, and that is where we are today."

Call me when you see your first breadline.

The Great Depression saw breadlines, and back then there really weren't any realistic job alternatives.

Today, with 5.7% unemployment, however, that's hardly the case. Your particular *field* may be hard hit, but overall the nation is doing fine. Any official unemplyment rate below 6% is full employment nationwide.

Europe has 10 to 11% unemployment and they're not hollering as loud as the few laid off techies around here.

[Southack]

"You won't find it because the US cost of living is pretty much higher than anyplace else on the planet. ... And Japan is a prime example!!"

Then you know nothing of the world. Japan's costs of living are VASTLY higher than the U.S.

A simple taxicab ride in Tokyo costs $200.

Real estate in Japan, Hong Kong, Tehran, and Moscow are all VASTLY higher than anywhere (even San Francisco and New York) in the U.S. even though their average salaries are all lower.

Nope. It costs more to live in Hong Kong than in the U.S. Ditto for Japan, Moscow, and a host of other places.

[ARCADIA]

Call me when you see your first breadline.

The modern breadline takes the form of mortgage refinancing and equity based credit lines. It works well until the system becomes insolvent. If you are unemployed you pull an equity credit line and cruise along normally for a while. It helps if nominal interests are low and the value of your home doubles or triples. But, you are still carrying a very large debt load, and sooner or later it will come due.