Electoral College Breakdown, April 7th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 4/7/04

[Dales]

Ping!

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[Ingtar]

Is Louisiana colored incorrectly on your map?

[Ingtar]

DOH! Eyes saw IA and read as LA

My bad!

[TJC]

I wonder if this changes for the worst, at least temporarily, based on what is going on in Iraq. The popular vote has shifted back in d*ckheadkerrys favor.

[Aeronaut]

Note on Minnesota: Never ever trust a poll from the Minneapolis Red Star-Tribune! They adjust based on some wierd otherworld algorithms.

[familyofman]

What are the chances of another 'split' with the winner of the electoral vote not winning the 'popular' vote? I've seen various analyses that have either Kerry or Bush in both situations.

[COURAGE]

Yeah, right

Kerry 48% Bush 42% (Rasmussen Daily Poll)

[trick question]

Try showing what your screen name indicates.

[blanknoone]

Dales, did you not adjust the colors for MI and ME on the map?

I am concerned...even though this shows Bush with a slight lead. I can easily see much of the tossup going D. I can't see many inroads into the Kerry leans. CA and NY 'lean' D? They are incredibly liberal! (I know, upstate NY is not the city and inland CA is not the coast...but look at their senators!) I may be a pessimist, but I see big swaths of country being D, and the other half thinking...so R's have to win everything in contention. I can barely envision Bush winning NJ. That alone would be an accomplishment.

I worry for the future of our country...Kerry would be a literal disaster...and America is still flirting with him.

[Dan from Michigan]

National polls don't mean much.

[txjeep]

That Rasmussen poll has been swinging around like a weather vane in a hurricane lately. I know people are fickle but not that fickle. Do you know anyone that has changed their mind about the election as many times as that poll has had a lead change in the last month?

[marblehead17]

ping

[COURAGE]

[KQQL]

Iraq Factor

[Dales]

Actually, by their very nature polls should oscillate, even if not a single voter changed their minds. If, say, half the people support Bush and half the people support Kerry, and we took a poll every day that has a 3 point margin of error, what we would expect to see is that the lead would change often, with about 1 in 20 of our results showing Bush with as much as a 6 point lead and 1 in 20 showing Kerry with as much as a 6 point lead.

It is when polls show no variance that I start to wonder if they are massaging the data.

Obviously, the Rasmussen poll is not good news. The confluence of its movement with outside events that make it easy to understand the movement make it less likely that it was just a random variance. That said, if people are not expecting there to be peaks and valleys in the polling numbers the rest of the way, they need to adjust their expectations. Expect a bit of a roller coaster.

[COURAGE]

You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall -- you need me on that wall.

We use words like "honor," "code," "loyalty." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand the post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

<

[Owen]

New Jersey is corrupting this entire analysis. Has even the Bush campaign considered NJ to be in play? Was it one of the states where they are airing their ads?

[KAUAIBOUND]

Re your comment that Bush underperformed in Florida in 2000: Wouldn't this be due to Lieberman pulling in the Jewish (transplanted NYers) vote, and the Panhandle being influenced by the premature Florida-for-Gore call by the networks?

Also, do you give any credence to the alleged vote altering/fraud in Palm Beach County, where Bush got significantly fewer votes than the Rep. Bill McCollum (sp?) running for Senator, and there was a high percentage of spoiled (double) votes?