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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, April 5, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 04/05/2004 3:45:41 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 292.25 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
04/05/2004 3:46:02 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: All
| Rank |
Location |
Receipts |
Donors/Avg |
Freepers/Avg |
Monthlies |
| 22 |
Wisconsin |
260.00
|
7
|
37.14
|
|
|
173.00
|
11
|
Thanks for donating to Free Republic!
Move your locale up the leaderboard!
3
posted on
04/05/2004 3:47:04 PM PDT
by
Support Free Republic
(Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
To: Momaw Nadon
Gain of 5 electoral votes for Bush since last week.
4
posted on
04/05/2004 3:49:17 PM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
To: Momaw Nadon
Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?
Comment #6 Removed by Moderator
To: rageaholic
Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?I believe TradeSports.com got started in 2002.
7
posted on
04/05/2004 3:57:38 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Don Diego
Bush won Ohio in '00. Bush lost PA in '00 (mostly because of corrupt voting in Philly) but things have changed in the last few years. Since 2002, the state legislature as well as representation in Congress now have a Republican majority.
To: rageaholic
I don't think anyone predicted that outcome. ;)
9
posted on
04/05/2004 4:04:15 PM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
To: Momaw Nadon
WEST VIRGINIA
moves into Bush territory: 49.0% last week, 53.0% this week...5 electoral points for Bush moves him from 299 to 304.
10
posted on
04/05/2004 4:06:31 PM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
To: Momaw Nadon
Thanks for posting these every week, Momaw - I like them!
11
posted on
04/05/2004 4:06:34 PM PDT
by
EllaMinnow
("Pessimism never won any battle." - Dwight D. Eisenhower)
To: Momaw Nadon
What about the House and/or the Senate?
12
posted on
04/05/2004 4:18:49 PM PDT
by
hobblemaster
(Bringing you mindless tag lines since this morning.)
To: Don Diego
I don't see how President Bush can get both Ohio and Pennsylvania. And your reasoning would be . . . ?
That it's difficult to win two states that are tossups? That it's difficult to win two states that are adjacent geographically? That it's difficult to win two states that begin with sequential letters?
13
posted on
04/05/2004 4:28:36 PM PDT
by
JohnnyZ
(Got some dirt on my shoulder -- could you brush it off for me?)
To: JohnnyZ
when Bush wins California with Arnolds help liberals are going to spasm
14
posted on
04/05/2004 4:48:02 PM PDT
by
Mr. K
To: Momaw Nadon
A verification of these numbers would be in tracking the states that Kerry chooses to visit in the next few weeks.
15
posted on
04/05/2004 4:55:46 PM PDT
by
xzins
(Retired Army and Proud of It!)
To: hobblemaster
What about the House and/or the Senate?
Republicans maintain control of the House in 2004 Election: 92.0%
Republicans maintain control of the US Senate in 2004 Election: 81.0%
16
posted on
04/05/2004 5:54:08 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: redlipstick
Thanks.
I like your tagline very much redlipstick! :^)
17
posted on
04/05/2004 5:55:42 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
After catching Penn and WV, Wisconsin and Michigan are now the closest at 47. Wisconsin got to as close as 49 :) but then backed off to 47 :(.
18
posted on
04/05/2004 6:30:02 PM PDT
by
TomEwall
To: rageaholic
"Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?"
I recall that there was a legitimate futures market for the 2000 election. But I don't remember the name, or the status as of the eve of the election.
To: rageaholic
I've been watching news for years. Since when did accuracy become important ;-)
I mean you don't need to be accurate at all to do :
1. Sports
2. Weather
3. Financial Analysis
4. Political Pundit
5. Anchor
So lets not go holding Freepers to a higher standard ;-) ;-) ;-)
20
posted on
04/05/2004 7:09:38 PM PDT
by
festus
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