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Nicosia said he left home Thursday and returned to find several doors inside his house ajar. He said he did not realize until Friday morning that there had been a theft.

When I come home to find doors ajar, it doesn't occur to me that there might have been burglars in the house until the next day, either.

"The police told me that burglars very easily could have come in through a sliding door without signs of a forced entry," he said.

Ain't that convenient?
Nicosia's sitting on some of the hottest files in the country, and he's got a sliding door that can be opened without sign of forced entry?
Was it even locked?

He added that he had no idea why the thieves didn't take all 14 of the boxes. "My guess is that they were surprised during the act and didn't have time to take everything — maybe the dog next door barked," Nicosia said.

I suspect the dogs that aren't barking are the real reason.
How indeed did the burgllars know what to look for, unless they knew what to look for?

He said that while the boxes had been tightly packed when released by the FBI, he saw signs that ones not previously opened had been riffled.

He hasn't even read all the files!
Even if he submits a new Freedom of Information request to the FBI, he won't know if he's getting all the same files.

Lovenguth said police were investigating the case as a burglary. "Our investigating is ongoing," he said.

The other option being filing a false police report.

"We're waiting for the victim to tell us exactly what was missing so we know what we're looking for."

Nicosia doesn't even know what's missing.

"Whoever did this wanted to know something about John Kerry," Nicosia said.

Or knows sometthing about John Kerry they don't want anyone else to know.

The author said that he promised at one point to deliver the files to Kerry so the senator could more fully review the information gathered about him. "But in the meantime, somebody got there first," Nicosia said.

Maybe they just took an early delivery.

Thanks for the ping. Nicosia's story sounds very fishy to me, too. If I were investigating this, as part of routine procedure I'd put Nicosia on the list of suspects to be ruled out, and the holes in his story make him seem increasingly suspicious to me. For instance Nicosia's speculation as to motive makes no sense:

"Whoever did this wanted to know something about John Kerry," Nicosia said.

Now who would fit Nicosia's description of such a suspect? I can't think of anyone who fits. If the Bush campaign wanted the information in those files, they could obtain it legitimately. Hillary Clinton--Kerry's only other major political rival at this point--would have Kerry's files already. If Kerry wanted his own files he could do an FOIA on them and get them legitimately; and besides that, Nicosia claims he was going to give Kerry the files to review later, anyway. So there is no motive for anyone who wants to know something about Kerry to steal these files. A motive that is more intuitively obvious and makes more sense is that someone wanted to conceal information about Kerry by stealing the files. But instead of entertaining this intuitively-obvious motive, Nicosia's response is to point the finger towards a hypothetical suspect who "wanted to know something about John Kerry". Nicosia's voicing of such counter-intuitive theorizing to the press points the finger of suspicion back towards himself as either the perpetrator of a staged theft or complicit in a staged theft, IMO.

Add to that the lack of evidence of forced entry, which again points to Nicosia as a suspect. Nicosia appears to have anticipated being questioned about this--or to have already been questioned about this by the police--for he tells the press:

"The police told me that burglars very easily could have come in through a sliding door without signs of a forced entry," he said.

Did the police really say that or believe it? Or did Nicosia himself come up with that explanation in anticipation of the police and the press questioning why there were no signs of forced entry? The more Nicosia talks, the more he sounds to me like someone trying to sell a pre-concocted alibi. My top guesses would be that either he's concealing the files on Kerry's behalf or he's doing this as a publicity stunt--the latter scenario having several possible variations depending on where Nicosia's political allegiance lies, whether he's being bribed or blackmailed, etc.