Posted on 03/19/2004 1:14:48 PM PST by Callahan
CARACAS, Feb 5 (IPS) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez would be defeated by a wide margin in any election or any referendum on his mandate, according to two private polling firms that released their survey results here Wednesday.
Polls conducted in 64 cities and in rural areas show ''consistently since late 2001 that, at a ratio of around 70-30, the electorate would vote against Chávez,'' Luis León, director of the Datanálisis firm, told the foreign press.
In a potential referendum to revoke Chávez's mandate -- a vote that the opposition is seeking and which the Constitution allows as of August -- ''64 percent of the electorate would vote against Chávez and 34 percent in favor,'' said León. Saúl Cabrera, of Consultores 21 polling firm, told the press that ''in any election Chávez would lose.''
''It's what you could say about someone gravely ill with cancer: he is going to die in a month, six months or a year. But he is going to die,'' said the public opinion expert.
Both polling companies said their predictions for the Venezuelan elections of the past few years were consistently very close to the official results.
The two also assure that they are neutral parties in this country's deeply polarized political conflict.
If they were to favor the opposition, for example, it would undermine their prestige and their marketing studies would lose credibility -- and those studies represent 80 percent of the companies' income, the polling experts said.
The Chávez government and the opposition are working on a peaceful way out of the political crisis, but so far have little to show for their efforts. Both sides have delegates on a negotiations panel that is being facilitated by César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS).
It is in that context that the opposition, led by the Democratic Coordinator (representing political parties, trade unions, business associations and civil society groups), proposed a constitutional reform to reduce Chávez's six-year term in order to hold presidential elections as soon as possible.
But the government is demanding compliance with the letter of the law, and instead proposes a revocatory referendum to be held in August, the halfway point of Chávez's term, the soonest such a vote would be allowed under the Constitution.
The opposition, meanwhile, continues its massive campaign to collect signatures for a series of ballot initiatives aimed at removing Chávez from office. Leaders claimed to have more than four million signatures after the weekend.
Under any electoral formula, ''the opposition always wins with more than 60 percent of the vote, including the case in which general elections are held and Chávez competes against several opposition candidates,'' said León, describing the results of his firm's recent polls.
''It would play out as it has in Venezuela for the last 30 years. The theory of second place. People will stake their bets on the one who can defeat the president,'' he said.
The notion that Chávez could win because the opposition is divided among various candidates is incorrect, says León. Public opinion is so polarized that votes would naturally shift towards the candidate best positioned to beat Chávez.
''Another myth is that opinions are divided along class lines,'' said the pollster.
The anti-Chávez vote in the Datanálisis polls was 65 percent among people of lower incomes and 58 percent among people from the middle to wealthier strata.
The Datanálisis results are based on surveys of households in 5,000 blocks in urban areas, providing 80 to 85 percent of the sample. Consultores 21 works solely by telephone, taking into account that even the poor often have cellular phones.
''In Caracas, the vast majority of the middle class is against the president, but in the provinces there is greater acceptance (of Chávez) among middle-class sectors,'' said Consultores 21 pollster Cabrera.
The firm's polls measure Chávez's popularity, dating to before the nationwide strike began Dec 2 and through the 57th day of the conflict, which ended Monday. All were approximately 40 percent in favor and 60 percent against Chávez.
''But when we asked those 40 percent who sympathize with the president if they would actually vote for him, the result always falls to just 30 to 33 percent in his favor,'' said Cabrera.
He said the results remained fairly constant throughout the strike because people's opinions are crystallized into two opposing blocs. Though 44 percent of respondents considered the strike a success and 40 said it was a failure, while 16 percent gave no opinion.
Blame for the strike and the suffering it caused the Venezuelan people goes to Chávez, according to 49 percent of respondents, while 21 percent blame the opposition and 25 percent blame both sides, according to a sample of 500 people surveyed by Consultores 21.
Cabrera and León agree that their polls follow the possible electoral and referendum scenarios for the country arising from the negotiations between the government and the opposition, among which they say it is unlikely that the Chávez government would be replaced through parliamentary or judicial measures.
However, they do not rule out a ''radical response'', such as an increase in violent protests leading to military intervention, even by ''Chavista'' officers.
The polling experts also said that this hypothetical radical response could take the form of an uprising instigated by Chávez himself in a bid to ''realign the pieces on the gameboard''.
Cabrera called attention to the social-economic component of the country's crisis, noting that an unprecedented 90 percent of survey respondents believe the economic situation will be worse this year than last.
''Put yourself in Chávez's shoes. He's no dummy,'' Leon told reporters. ''Why would he encourage elections if he knows he is going to lose? If he weren't scared of losing, he would have already held elections, like he did before (seven different elections in two years), when he had the majority in his pocket.''
Don't hold your breath waiting around for the Constitutional elections of 2007, either. If Chavez isn't removed, there won't be any.
And, btw regarding our other favourite subject, look for Chavez to try to influence OUR election with a timely suppression of oil exports, say about Sep 1st.
Wow. The people over at DU don't lick Mugabe's boots?
Well, I suppose those are the same leftists who used to call right-wing critics of Mugabe "racists."
Chavez is going to hold out for that magical August date. After that, if he's recalled, his handpicked VP will govern, so in essence he will continue to govern.
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