Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Poll Numbers Devastating for Chávez
HACER.org ^ | 3/18/04 | IPS

Posted on 03/19/2004 1:14:48 PM PST by Callahan

CARACAS, Feb 5 (IPS) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez would be defeated by a wide margin in any election or any referendum on his mandate, according to two private polling firms that released their survey results here Wednesday.

Polls conducted in 64 cities and in rural areas show ''consistently since late 2001 that, at a ratio of around 70-30, the electorate would vote against Chávez,'' Luis León, director of the Datanálisis firm, told the foreign press.

In a potential referendum to revoke Chávez's mandate -- a vote that the opposition is seeking and which the Constitution allows as of August -- ''64 percent of the electorate would vote against Chávez and 34 percent in favor,'' said León. Saúl Cabrera, of Consultores 21 polling firm, told the press that ''in any election Chávez would lose.''

''It's what you could say about someone gravely ill with cancer: he is going to die in a month, six months or a year. But he is going to die,'' said the public opinion expert.

Both polling companies said their predictions for the Venezuelan elections of the past few years were consistently very close to the official results.

The two also assure that they are neutral parties in this country's deeply polarized political conflict.

If they were to favor the opposition, for example, it would undermine their prestige and their marketing studies would lose credibility -- and those studies represent 80 percent of the companies' income, the polling experts said.

The Chávez government and the opposition are working on a peaceful way out of the political crisis, but so far have little to show for their efforts. Both sides have delegates on a negotiations panel that is being facilitated by César Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS).

It is in that context that the opposition, led by the Democratic Coordinator (representing political parties, trade unions, business associations and civil society groups), proposed a constitutional reform to reduce Chávez's six-year term in order to hold presidential elections as soon as possible.

But the government is demanding compliance with the letter of the law, and instead proposes a revocatory referendum to be held in August, the halfway point of Chávez's term, the soonest such a vote would be allowed under the Constitution.

The opposition, meanwhile, continues its massive campaign to collect signatures for a series of ballot initiatives aimed at removing Chávez from office. Leaders claimed to have more than four million signatures after the weekend.

Under any electoral formula, ''the opposition always wins with more than 60 percent of the vote, including the case in which general elections are held and Chávez competes against several opposition candidates,'' said León, describing the results of his firm's recent polls.

''It would play out as it has in Venezuela for the last 30 years. The theory of second place. People will stake their bets on the one who can defeat the president,'' he said.

The notion that Chávez could win because the opposition is divided among various candidates is incorrect, says León. Public opinion is so polarized that votes would naturally shift towards the candidate best positioned to beat Chávez.

''Another myth is that opinions are divided along class lines,'' said the pollster.

The anti-Chávez vote in the Datanálisis polls was 65 percent among people of lower incomes and 58 percent among people from the middle to wealthier strata.

The Datanálisis results are based on surveys of households in 5,000 blocks in urban areas, providing 80 to 85 percent of the sample. Consultores 21 works solely by telephone, taking into account that even the poor often have cellular phones.

''In Caracas, the vast majority of the middle class is against the president, but in the provinces there is greater acceptance (of Chávez) among middle-class sectors,'' said Consultores 21 pollster Cabrera.

The firm's polls measure Chávez's popularity, dating to before the nationwide strike began Dec 2 and through the 57th day of the conflict, which ended Monday. All were approximately 40 percent in favor and 60 percent against Chávez.

''But when we asked those 40 percent who sympathize with the president if they would actually vote for him, the result always falls to just 30 to 33 percent in his favor,'' said Cabrera.

He said the results remained fairly constant throughout the strike because people's opinions are crystallized into two opposing blocs. Though 44 percent of respondents considered the strike a success and 40 said it was a failure, while 16 percent gave no opinion.

Blame for the strike and the suffering it caused the Venezuelan people goes to Chávez, according to 49 percent of respondents, while 21 percent blame the opposition and 25 percent blame both sides, according to a sample of 500 people surveyed by Consultores 21.

Cabrera and León agree that their polls follow the possible electoral and referendum scenarios for the country arising from the negotiations between the government and the opposition, among which they say it is unlikely that the Chávez government would be replaced through parliamentary or judicial measures.

However, they do not rule out a ''radical response'', such as an increase in violent protests leading to military intervention, even by ''Chavista'' officers.

The polling experts also said that this hypothetical radical response could take the form of an uprising instigated by Chávez himself in a bid to ''realign the pieces on the gameboard''.

Cabrera called attention to the social-economic component of the country's crisis, noting that an unprecedented 90 percent of survey respondents believe the economic situation will be worse this year than last.

''Put yourself in Chávez's shoes. He's no dummy,'' Leon told reporters. ''Why would he encourage elections if he knows he is going to lose? If he weren't scared of losing, he would have already held elections, like he did before (seven different elections in two years), when he had the majority in his pocket.''


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: chavez; latinamerica; venzuela
This commie SOB was a leftist cause celebre for a bit. Now even the DUers are deserting him since he called Robert Mugabe a "freedom fighter" the other day. We need him out of there. I have no doubt that he would collude with the Islamists.
1 posted on 03/19/2004 1:14:49 PM PST by Callahan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Callahan
If the DUers are desrting Chavez for calling Mugabe a hero when will they do the same for the black caucus.
2 posted on 03/19/2004 1:19:04 PM PST by cripplecreek (you tell em i'm commin.... and hells commin with me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
The media was happy that the Spanish Bush supporters were defeated, so will they report this with the same intensity knowing Chavez was a Bush-hater? Ha!
3 posted on 03/19/2004 1:23:50 PM PST by #3Fan (Kerry to POW-MIA activists: "You'll wish you'd never been born.". Link on my homepage.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
Chris Dodd likes him.Casttro likes him. He endorsed Kerry.He was once elected. What more do the Dems want?LOL!!!
4 posted on 03/19/2004 1:26:30 PM PST by the Real fifi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cripplecreek
Some might be conservative trolls posing as DUers. I'm convinced that 50% of the posters on that site are plants.
5 posted on 03/19/2004 1:26:32 PM PST by Callahan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
I'd bet they've seen their last free election.
6 posted on 03/19/2004 1:57:23 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
Where is Maxine Waters, Kofi, Jessie Jackson, etc. when we need them to help a democracy?
7 posted on 03/19/2004 2:10:40 PM PST by BIGZ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eric in the Ozarks
Agreed. Chavez will never voluntarily allow this referendum to take place, and if by some miracle it should, will have his Bolivarianos create all sorts of violence in the cities. Goes w/o saying that he won't abide by the results of such election (IF it occurs, which it won't).

Don't hold your breath waiting around for the Constitutional elections of 2007, either. If Chavez isn't removed, there won't be any.

And, btw regarding our other favourite subject, look for Chavez to try to influence OUR election with a timely suppression of oil exports, say about Sep 1st.

8 posted on 03/19/2004 2:11:13 PM PST by SAJ (It's only a malicious rumor that this is a tagline. It's really a Dec silver ratio-spread...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SAJ
I think he would've done it by now. The Vens have too much structure in the US; refineries, gas stations, etc, to starve themselves. But, these people have done stupid things before...
9 posted on 03/19/2004 2:24:20 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
Hmm...the few threads I've ever read on DU about Mugabe shows he has substabtial support over there.

I know Castro does...
10 posted on 03/19/2004 2:26:54 PM PST by Guillermo (Kerry, Zapatero, Chirac and Schroeder support granting Al Qaeda a seat on the UN Security Council.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
Now even the DUers are deserting him since he called Robert Mugabe a "freedom fighter" the other day.

Wow. The people over at DU don't lick Mugabe's boots?

Well, I suppose those are the same leftists who used to call right-wing critics of Mugabe "racists."

11 posted on 03/19/2004 2:54:36 PM PST by xm177e2 (Stalinists, Maoists, Ba'athists, Pacifists: Why are they always on the same side?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Callahan
CHAVEZ IS AN EVIL,EVIL MAN. Chavez has been stealing oil from Trinidad and Tobago for years. He's a wicked commie and I wish someone would get rid of him already. There I said it.
12 posted on 03/19/2004 2:59:08 PM PST by cyborg (In die begin het God die hemel en die aarde geskape.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
ping
13 posted on 03/19/2004 9:50:15 PM PST by Libertarianize the GOP (Ideas have consequences)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Libertarianize the GOP; Callahan
***In a potential referendum to revoke Chávez's mandate -- a vote that the opposition is seeking and which the Constitution allows as of August -- ''64 percent of the electorate would vote against Chávez and 34 percent in favor,'' said León. Saúl Cabrera, of Consultores 21 polling firm, told the press that ''in any election Chávez would lose.'' ***

Chavez is going to hold out for that magical August date. After that, if he's recalled, his handpicked VP will govern, so in essence he will continue to govern.

14 posted on 03/19/2004 11:06:35 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson