Taiwan President Shot (Update: Wounds not life-threatening)

[El Gato]

But how does one get a 12 inch wound across the stomach from a gun shot?

The bullet must have been traveling crossways. That is from side to side of the Taiwanese President. As opposed to the shot coming from the front or back. Reports seem to indicate it may have been a ricochet off of the Vice President's knee. In any event, it had to hurt like a SOB.

[Arkinsaw]

The PRC is quite capable of launching an invasion, and getting better as time goes on. What they dont have is the ability to pull it off successfully if we come to the defense of Taiwan. Without us, the mere sight of PRC troops on the beaches might be enough for Taiwan to follow Spains lead and capitulate to the mainland.

I'm sorry, but the PRC just flat out doesn't have the amphibious capability to seize the island of Taiwan. There is just no logical analysis that can support them having the capability to do such a thing either tactically or logistically. And as for the Taiwanese folding, thats very doubtful.

[Magnum44]

You have more confidence in the Taiwanese than most military planners. One of the reasons that this Taiwan election is so contentious is exactly because there are almost as many Taiwanese who to rejoin with the mainland as want independence. Both extremes make up about 30% of the population. The remaining 70% just want to maintain the status quo.

But your entitled to your opinion.

[Magnum44]

There is just no logical analysis that can support them having the capability to do such a thing either tactically or logistically.

You only need to look at Janes and compare PRC Navy to TWN navy to see the error in this statement.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Ouch!!

[texasbluebell]

Oops! Haha! Maybe we'd better not CE.here...

[Arkinsaw]

You only need to look at Janes and compare PRC Navy to TWN navy to see the error in this statement.

Navies don't seize wooded mountainous terrain or charge onto beaches.

As for the PRC Navy, they have some drawbacks. One, they aren't that experienced with amphibious warfare, secondly they don't have American equipment like Taiwan does. US equipment has consistently and decisively defeated communist bloc military equipment time and time again whether in our hands or the hands of third parties.

My statement is not in error, the PRC does NOT have the capability to seize Taiwan.

[Magnum44]

Navies don't seize wooded mountainous terrain or charge onto beaches... As for the PRC Navy... they aren't that experienced with amphibious warfare, secondly they don't have American equipment like Taiwan does...

You don't need to take the mountains initially. Just get a beachheach, an airport, and threaten enough economic destruction with 500 cruise missiles to get the status quo fence riders to say "Why cant we just get along?". And I dont know where you assume they have no amphib capability. They exercise it every year during the summer and the exercise grows larger in number each year. As I said, they are not great at it, but they are getting better all the time.

It did not take any more than a few homemade bombs to change the government of spain.

[swarthyguy]

Thanks.

Add this untold story to the Kurdish Riots in Syria and the upheaval in Iran.

[Arkinsaw]

You don't need to take the mountains initially. Just get a beachheach, an airport, and threaten enough economic destruction with 500 cruise missiles to get the status quo fence riders to say "Why cant we just get along?".

That is a lot different than seizing Taiwan militarily. The PRC can pound Taiwan with missiles certainly and can threaten destruction but that is NOT the same as conducting a successful amphibious invasion.

As for conducting exercises...so what....Syria conducted exercises also and yet couldn't shoot down a single F-16 while losing their air force. Lots of people conduct exercises but that is NO evidence that they are capable of carrying out those missions when opposed by a defending force.

It did not take any more than a few homemade bombs to change the government of spain.

That is far different than conducting one of the largest amphibious operations ever when opposed by a defender with military technology proven to be better than yours. We are talking about amphibious invasion to seize Taiwan, not potential cowardly governments in Taipei.

While I don't agree with you about the cowardice of the Taiwanese, it is much more plausible a scenario than China successfully conquering the island in a stand up fight.

[Rams82]

Are they reporting this on TV? Fox News or CNN? I just got home from work about an hour ago and haven't seen anything about it.

[heleny]

Are they reporting this on TV? Fox News or CNN?

I saw it mentioned again a few minutes ago on Fox News Channel; it was the last item mentioned, and was called an assassination attempt. Last night, it was on CNN, on FNC's half-hourly news, and on local news. Headline News last night was on tape rerun with no interruptions/updates until they changed shift.

[Glenn]

Having read several stories re this, why are the headlines saying "SHOT" instead of "ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT"?

[BurbankKarl]

Because that was the information when I posted the thread, 30 minutes before the newsies got a hold of it...If you read the first 100 posts, you can see there was a wide range of reports coming out.

[Glenn]

Because that was the information when I posted the thread

Sorry. The comment was not about you or this thread but the headlines of CNNFOXCBSABC, et al. They all say "shot".

[Rams82]

If this is Chinese intelligence or military this could mean WW3! Seems like this should be the top story

[Magnum44]

While I don't agree with you about the cowardice of the Taiwanese, it is much more plausible a scenario than China successfully conquering the island in a stand up fight.

I didn't say they were cowards. I said the 'status quo' are unpredictable in terms of how they will react to a military invasion of unknown scale.

And you better define what you mean by 'successful amphibious' operation. If you accomplish the mission/political objective without even landing a troop or firing a shot, that is successful in my book. The US often accomplishes its objetives by a mere show of force.

[Rams82]

I believe the Kitty Hawk is in South Korea right now

[heleny]

the headlines of CNNFOXCBSABC, et al. They all say "shot".

Fox News Channel said something like "assassination attempt."

[RightWhale]

Is a pattern developing?

Wars are often preceeded by a series of political assassinations.