Rauschenberger surges into third, Ryan drops to 33 points in WBBM poll

The Illinois Leader ^ | March 15, 2004 | The Leader-Chicago Bureau

[Barnacle]

CHICAGO -- On CBS 2/Newsradio 780 tonight, political editor Mike Flannery indicated a surprising trend in the Republican primary polling that caused political junkies to seat up and pay attention -- the undecided voters are apparently heading towards state Senator Steve Rauschenberger in their last minute decisions.

"It's been our plan all along to have Steve start to show in the polls during the last three days," Rauschenberger's campaign spokesman Charlie Stone said this evening. "People are just now paying attention, and deciding their choice for tomorrow. Steve is the only qualified choice for their next U.S. Senator, that's what they're deciding."

While Ryan still maintains his lead, the CBS survey shows Rauschenberger is making his final move at the last minute.

According to SurveyUSA, the CBS 2/Newsradio 780 voter opinion began showing the trend last Friday, when had frontrunner millionaire teacher Jack Ryan was at 40 percent, dairyman/investor Jim Oberweis was at 19 percent, and Rauschenberger was at nine. The numbers were after a brutal week on Ryan with primary opponents beating on him to release portions of his divorce files that a political operative from another campaign released to a news source.

Ryan continues to refuse to release the concealed papers, citing his nine-year-old son's welfare, but is a possible chink in the frontrunner's armor.

By Saturday, as the controversy grew, Ryan's numbers had dropped five to 35 percent, Oberweis had increased to 24 percent, and at that time, businessman Andy McKenna was holding at 14 percent.

By Sunday, Ryan's support, according to the polls has narrowed even more to 33 percent and Oberweis' has grown to 24 percent. The surprise surge now is Rauschenberger, who is now at 21 percent, a gain of twelve points in three days.

"Look, Ryan is dropping fast, Oberweis is staying flat and Steve is the one that is gaining here," Stone said. "We have a long ways to go, but we are optimistic."

Flannery told viewers on Monday's 6 o'clock broadcast, "When totaling up all three days of our survey, Ryan leads with 32 percent to 24 percent for Oberweis, 17 percent for Rauschenberger and 14 percent for Andy McKenna.

"But the margin of accuracy means Ryan and Oberweis could be in a statistical tie. And if Rauschenberger's late-surging momentum continues, he could have a shot at victory too," Flannery said.

Jason Miller, campaign manager for front runner Jack Ryan, is paying attention to tonight's developments, but was calm and collected in his reply to tonight's results.

"Although the WBBM poll is not at all reflective of internal polling that shows us with a much bigger lead, we aren’t taking anything for granted," Miller said. "We’ll be working up until the polls close at 7 pm on Tuesday."

Miller said that their negative inside polling indicates Oberweis' negatives are too high for him to win and Rauschenberger's name ID is 40 points lower than Ryan's, putting Rauschenberger at a distinct disadvantage.

"And even though Jack has been hit hard by his opponents this past week, his favorables are still more than 50 points higher than his unfavorables," Miller said.

Still talking campaign hype talk, Stone responded to Miller's comments saying the game is still wide open on a primary election day with a snowstorm predicted for the southern part of the state, up into the southern suburbs of Chicago.

"We have just returned from an eight city fly around, and there were 150 to 200 people cheering for Steve at every stop," Stone said. "The media was out, the people were excited, and we are very hopeful about a good turnout tomorrow. This is still anyone's win, we're excited."

© 2004 IllinoisLeader.com - all rights reserved

[oprahstheantichrist]

"I regret that he voted for giving in-state tuition to illegal immigrants, which every single senator except one voted for. So, Steve may not be the perfect candidate, but then again I’m not running in this election."

I've always adored Peter Fitzgerald, and continue to grieve that he won't be in the senate next term. But he voted against drilling in ANWAR, which appalled me. Nobody's perfect.

[LdSentinal]

Jack Ryan is a handosme guy. He can can get a good chunk of the woman's vote on being a hearthrob. With that and him winning the white male vote against Obama, we can save this seat from going across the aisle.

[FranklinsTower]

I realize there are too many Ryans in IL politics, but that is no reason to dismiss him as our best chance to keep the seat. There is a reason he is getting smeared -- people are afraid of him.

Ryan is very articulate and has an impressive resume. As the campaign moves forward, no one will mistake him for our former Gov. To use a person's last name -- with no relation -- as a reason not to vote for them is an argument put forth by those in Jr. high school. Grow up.

[JohnnyZ]

Jim Oberweis, who has shown courage and leadership in taking on critical issues like Illegal Immigration when the others run and hide.

ROFL!

Oberweis has never met a principle he didn't discard.

2002: "I'm a pro-choice moderate"
2004: "I'm a pro-life conservative"

2002: "Immigration -- who cares?"
2004: "Immigrants are destroying America"

(I'm paraphrasing)

Taliban Jim is a disgrace to the Republican Party.

[BlessedBeGod]

Yeah, I saw this on the news last night. Weird.

[Condor51]

Uh excuse me, but you live in IL and don't know (apparently) that this Ryan, Jack - is NOT the ex-gov George who emptied death row?

Now maybe I mis-read your post, but if I didn't, I hope your DON'T VOTE today.

BTW, I'm NOT voting for Jack Ryan, nor do I support him.

[ought-six]

"NO ONE in this state with a surname of R Y A N can possibly be elected to DOG CATCHER for the next twenty five years!"

Not only that, but ANY Republican can all but forget about winning a high-profile election in Illinois because of the horrendous damage that RINO George Ryan did to the Republican Party. It will be at least a decade before the damage George Ryan inflicted in the Republican Party in Illinois shows any signs of dissipating.

[Condor51]

"but that is no reason to dismiss him as our best chance to keep the seat"

---

Oh no? Read #9.
This person lives in IL and doesn't know (apparently) 'Jack' from 'George'.

And responses like #9 are why VOTING should not be made too easy. Way too many people who don't know what - or who they're voting for decide the fate of the USA.

NOTE: I'm not voting for 'Jack' Ryan nor do I support him. but at least I know WHO HE IS!

[Barnacle]

NOTE: I'm not voting for 'Jack' Ryan nor do I support him. but at least I know WHO HE IS!</I?

Who do you support?

[FranklinsTower]

That may be true now, but by the time Nov. rolls around far fewer people will mistake the two.

[Lancey Howard]

Ryan is a common Irish last name, and Illinois is very Irish, do the math.

So Kerry owns the place?

[Barnacle]

Chris Lauzen, the only Illinois Senator to vote against in-state tuition for illegal aliens says:

"Time to Act…Vote Rauschenberger and Wiegand"


"You already know that many of us are working hard to nominate Steve Rauschenberger for U.S. Senate (Click here for endorsement). He is the only candidate to take the clear and courageous position of calling for meaningful “reform” in the Republican Party. Steve is the only candidate in this race with actual experience that we can trust. And, he can beat the Democrats (Obama or Hynes) in November!

"I respect all of our candidates and will support and work for whoever is our nominee. However, the reason why 40 state senators and representatives are dedicated to Rauschenberger’s success is that we have seen his work, integrity, and generous nature.

"I am sorry that Jack Ryan feels vulnerable on some of his divorce files. He should not have to endure the personal attacks that will come, but if anyone thinks that the Downtown Chicago Democrats will not use that issue to pound on Jack and Republicans (as George Ryan and others of his wing of the party go to trial on corruption later this year), they are sadly naïve.

"Jim Oberweis has identified that illegal immigration is a huge problem for the United States. However, his approach to the issue has elicited the label of “bigotry” from the mainstream press. That is certainly not Jim’s intention and I hope that what he has said has not done more damage than good.

"On a totally different front, if you live in DeKalb, Ogle, or LaSalle Counties and can vote for Joe Wiegand for State Representative, please do! He is the authentic tax fighter in that race and stands four-square for the traditional values that have made America strong. The “Do Nothing about George Ryan and Bob Kjellander” wing of the party has thrown the kitchen sink at Joe and he needs our help."

Senator Chris Lauzen's letter of endorcement of Senator Steve Rauschenberger:

http://www.lauzen.com/press/pressview.asp?c=11723

[Barnacle]

Jack Ryan is a handosme guy. He can can get a good chunk of the woman's vote on being a hearthrob.

That is a sad truth and cannot be overlooked. One wonders if there was a beautiful woman in this race if we men would be thinking with our brains.

Actually, I think the Democrat voter is much more inclined to think of an election as a beauty contest. I like to give Republicans more credit than that.

[WRhine]

"Jim Oberweis has identified that illegal immigration is a huge problem for the United States. However, his approach to the issue has elicited the label of “bigotry” from the mainstream press. That is certainly not Jim’s intention and I hope that what he has said has not done more damage than good."

Oh for Heavens Sake, how can ANYONE identify Illegal Immigration as a major problem WITHOUT getting the label of "bigotry" slapped on them? Mr. Lauzen is being quite disingenuous here. He apparently sides with the politically correct, status quo policy of NOT discussing Critical Issues like Illegal Immigration--which will most definitely determine the quality of life (or lack of it) in IL, because it might ruffle some feathers in the liberal media and get the RACE Pimps going. I don't buy it.

When can we talk about Illegal Immigration? When it is TOO LATE?

The way things are going in this country with run away political correctness the Mexican Army could blow through our borders and into America’s Heartland and our politicians would stand around in stone silence--afraid if they made it an issue they would be called a "Racist". Enough of this nonsense.

Who is going to Stand Up for the American CITIZENS of this country?

In this race it is clear--Jim Oberweis.

[WRhine]

(I'm paraphrasing)

And I'm sure you are being very objective about it. LOL.

[Barnacle]

Are you the guy who cut down my Rauschenberger sign last night?

?;^T

[WRhine]

Are you the guy who cut down my Rauschenberger sign last night?

Politics can sure get nasty down the stretch. But no...I did not. It was probably some frustrated Drunk Ryan operative.

[JohnnyZ]

And I'm sure you are being very objective about it. LOL.

And you cannot dispute Jim Oberweis' ideological 180 in the span of a year between the end of his 2002 race and the beginning of this one last year.

What will Oberweis claim to believe a year from now? Two weeks from now? Who knows? Maybe he'll come out in favor of gay marriage. Or pulling our troops out of Iraq and ending the war on terror.

[WRhine]

In the Infantile Way you phrased "Immigrants are destroying America", which Jim of course NEVER said, you prove yourself to be nothing more than a childish party hack wholly lacking in any credibility.

[JohnnyZ]

So you agree that Oberweis will say anything that he thinks will get him elected, like in 2002 when he ran as a pro-abortion moderate and now when he's running as a pro-life anti-immigration conservative? Hmmm?

Because that's pretty much indisputable.

If you want to support someone with no principles just because you like what he says out of one side of his mouth on a certain day, you're free to do so, but I'm free to denounce it.