Posted on 03/15/2004 9:23:30 PM PST by Barnacle
CHICAGO -- On CBS 2/Newsradio 780 tonight, political editor Mike Flannery indicated a surprising trend in the Republican primary polling that caused political junkies to seat up and pay attention -- the undecided voters are apparently heading towards state Senator Steve Rauschenberger in their last minute decisions.
"It's been our plan all along to have Steve start to show in the polls during the last three days," Rauschenberger's campaign spokesman Charlie Stone said this evening. "People are just now paying attention, and deciding their choice for tomorrow. Steve is the only qualified choice for their next U.S. Senator, that's what they're deciding."
While Ryan still maintains his lead, the CBS survey shows Rauschenberger is making his final move at the last minute.
According to SurveyUSA, the CBS 2/Newsradio 780 voter opinion began showing the trend last Friday, when had frontrunner millionaire teacher Jack Ryan was at 40 percent, dairyman/investor Jim Oberweis was at 19 percent, and Rauschenberger was at nine. The numbers were after a brutal week on Ryan with primary opponents beating on him to release portions of his divorce files that a political operative from another campaign released to a news source.
Ryan continues to refuse to release the concealed papers, citing his nine-year-old son's welfare, but is a possible chink in the frontrunner's armor.
By Saturday, as the controversy grew, Ryan's numbers had dropped five to 35 percent, Oberweis had increased to 24 percent, and at that time, businessman Andy McKenna was holding at 14 percent.
By Sunday, Ryan's support, according to the polls has narrowed even more to 33 percent and Oberweis' has grown to 24 percent. The surprise surge now is Rauschenberger, who is now at 21 percent, a gain of twelve points in three days.
"Look, Ryan is dropping fast, Oberweis is staying flat and Steve is the one that is gaining here," Stone said. "We have a long ways to go, but we are optimistic."
Flannery told viewers on Monday's 6 o'clock broadcast, "When totaling up all three days of our survey, Ryan leads with 32 percent to 24 percent for Oberweis, 17 percent for Rauschenberger and 14 percent for Andy McKenna.
"But the margin of accuracy means Ryan and Oberweis could be in a statistical tie. And if Rauschenberger's late-surging momentum continues, he could have a shot at victory too," Flannery said.
Jason Miller, campaign manager for front runner Jack Ryan, is paying attention to tonight's developments, but was calm and collected in his reply to tonight's results.
"Although the WBBM poll is not at all reflective of internal polling that shows us with a much bigger lead, we aren’t taking anything for granted," Miller said. "We’ll be working up until the polls close at 7 pm on Tuesday."
Miller said that their negative inside polling indicates Oberweis' negatives are too high for him to win and Rauschenberger's name ID is 40 points lower than Ryan's, putting Rauschenberger at a distinct disadvantage.
"And even though Jack has been hit hard by his opponents this past week, his favorables are still more than 50 points higher than his unfavorables," Miller said.
Still talking campaign hype talk, Stone responded to Miller's comments saying the game is still wide open on a primary election day with a snowstorm predicted for the southern part of the state, up into the southern suburbs of Chicago.
"We have just returned from an eight city fly around, and there were 150 to 200 people cheering for Steve at every stop," Stone said. "The media was out, the people were excited, and we are very hopeful about a good turnout tomorrow. This is still anyone's win, we're excited."
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Yogi Bera
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Maybe, just maybe it will be a photo finish.
If so, isn't he in the wrong party?
If so, isn't he in the wrong party?
Different Ryan. Same political orientation. The Republican Party has a policy that a Ryan, any Ryan must be on the ticket every election cycle. Weird but.....
I rest my case.
Frankly Barnacle I just don't understand your support for that guy. I really don't. Doesn't a Tribune and Herald endorsement clue you in that perhaps something is amiss with his candidacy as it relates to conservatism?
Let's see. Every other Irish name is Ryan. Ok, now I get it. Thanks!
I'm supporting Steve Rauschenberger. I posted on the Illinois board the reasons why. But some how, my posting got pushed off the edge in lieu of more relevant topics.
I've been represented by Rauschenberger in Springfield. He has a solid track record, and I am especially happy with his pro-life and pro-Second Amendment and concealed carry voting records.
Most importantly, Steve is endorsed by the Family Taxpayers Network, The Illinois Leader, Kane County Conservative Coalition and the National Rifle Association.
I regret that he voted for giving in-state tuition to illegal immigrants, which every single senator except one voted for. So, Steve may not be the perfect candidate, but then again I’m not running in this election.
?;^T
{YAWN} I'm so shocked. We've been predicting that on FR for a while now.
What does it tell YOU when a small-time state senator in a SAFE conservative district makes the EASY calls on gun rights and abortion but when deciding to run for U.S. Senator casts his vote in with the pro-Illegal Alien Lobby to get newspaper endorsements?
It tells me that he is the KIND of politician whose vote is always up for sale. This guy is an aspiring professional politician Barnacle. Undifferentiated from everyone in the field EXCEPT Jim Oberweis, who has shown courage and leadership in taking on critical issues like Illegal Immigration when the others run and hide. What kind of Senator do you want representing YOU? Party Hacks for the GOP?
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