Posted on 03/15/2004 1:27:25 PM PST by veronica
LONDON (Reuters) - Islamic militants will see the defeat of Spain's Popular Party and the country's planned withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for their cause, encouraging more attacks aimed at political ends, security experts say.
If, as evidence suggests, al Qaeda or its sympathisers were behind last week's blasts in Madrid, the election upset in Spain will be seen as the first time Islamic militants have toppled a Western government by killing civilians.
"They will be thinking they've achieved something absolutely extraordinary," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management, a London-based consultancy that analyses security risk for commercial clients.
"This is the one occasion I can remember where there is specific cause and effect: here's an election, and we can affect this election. And I think this will give them a lot of succour for the future as they plan more attacks."
A week ago polls showed Spain's ruling Popular Party -- despite supporting the United States and Britain in a domestically unpopular war in Iraq -- was headed for victory in Sunday's election.
But in the wake of the attacks, which killed nearly 200 people and injured 1,500, voters swung behind the anti-war Socialist Party. Its winning candidate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has since repeated a pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq unless the U.N. takes charge by mid-year.
Security experts say they think toppling the Spanish government was al Qaeda's explicit goal in last week's attacks.
They point to a 50-page book, Iraq al-Jihad, which appeared on militant Internet sites last December and discussed attacking Spanish targets to increase public hostility to the war and bring down Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar.
It explicitly suggested militants "exploit the coming elections in Spain in March, 2004," according to excerpts provided by Janusian's Claridge.
"We think the Spanish government could not afford more than two or three attacks...after which it would have to withdraw as a result of popular pressures," the book said.
Added Claridge: "In the end, they only needed one (attack)."
INVESTIGATION POINTS TO AL QAEDA
Ten bombs on four packed commuter trains exploded at roughly the same time at the Thursday morning rush-hour in Madrid. The devices were detonated by mobile phones.
Despite initial Spanish assertions that the main suspects were Basque separatists, most experts now have little doubt the blasts were the work of al Qaeda or like-minded allies.
Spain has arrested three Moroccans and two Spaniards of Indian descent linked to a mobile phone wired to an unexploded bomb found on a Madrid train.
One of the Moroccans, Jamal Zougam, was named in an indictment last year as a follower of Imad Yarkas, who was arrested as an accomplice in the September 11, 2001, attacks.
"Clearly, they thought very hard about the way in which they might achieve a massive political impact in Spain," said Paul Wilkinson, chairman of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at Scotland's St Andrew's University.
"I think what it shows is that the very sophisticated and ruthless terrorists of the 'new terrorism' variety -- al Qaeda -- do think carefully about having a maximum strategic impact."
Claridge said: "Amongst the Islamist community there clearly was discussion and thought around Spain as a potential target and Spain being vulnerable to terrorism as a means of causing political change."
Washington and London will probably try to persuade Spain's new government to reconsider its commitment to withdrawing troops, if only to deprive al Qaeda of a perceived victory.
Although election winner Zapatero has said he remains committed to his campaign pledge to withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq by July 1, he has also suggested he could reconsider if the situation improves on the ground.
Wilkinson said he saw that "as a sign of hope that the new Spanish government might be persuaded to stay on, because that would undermine the perception that somehow the terrorists had won a victory."
But in the meantime, al Qaeda will be able to crow about its success in apparently ousting a European government with bombs.
"I think that that will be used as a propaganda and recruitment weapon for al Qaeda," Wilkinson said. "I am quite sure that they will exploit that to the full."
Makes you wonder if the Kerry camp is trying to figure out how much collateral damage is acceptable to achieve the goal of winning the election in November.
I agree. The new government seems to be part of the international socialist gang. Those guys hate the US more than they do the people who will murder them. There is no logic happening there. It is all ideology.
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