Posted on 03/15/2004 6:06:54 AM PST by billorites
Terrorism has won a mighty victory in Spain. The culprits who detonated those bombs of murder on 3/11 intended to use murder to alter the course of Spanish democracy – and they have succeeded.
In the months since the attacks on the World Trade Center attacks, we have all heard – and ourselves often repeated – much brave talk about how terror cannot prevail, how justice must inevitably win through, etc. etc. etc.
The news from Spain suggests how very wrong those hopes were.
People are not always strong. Sometimes they indulge false hopes that by lying low, truckling, appeasing, they can avoid danger and strife. Sometimes they convince themselves that if only they give the Cyclops what he wants, they will be eaten last. And this is what seems to have happened in Spain.
Unlike the 9/11 attacks in the United States – which were intened as acts of propaganda to influence the Arab and Muslim world – the 3/11 attacks against Spain were acts of propaganda aimed at the local market. And again unlike 9/11, this time the terrorists succeeded brilliantly. They helped to defeat a government committed to joining the war against them – and helped elect a government whose leading members not so quietly dream of a separate accommodation.
From a human point of view, the carnage of 3/11 is a tragedy without purpose or meaning. But from a political point of view, 3/11 was aimed at a result – and it achieved it. The new socialist government of Spain will be a far less willing ally of the United States. Indeed, this attack against Spain may well succeed in pre-emptively knocking Spain out of the war in the way that Pearl Harbor was intended – but failed – to knock out the United States in 1941.
Lesson: terrorism can work. Prediction: therefore expect more of it. Expect more terrorism aimed at the United Kingdom, against Australia, against Poland, and – ultimately – against the United States. For the terrorists must now wonder: If murder can influence elections in Spain – why not in the United States?
In the United States, the terrorists have to make a very fine calculation: Which would hurt President Bush, their supereme enemy, more – to attack or not to attack?
Those who know American politics well would probably answer: choice number two. The more time goes by without a terrorist attack, the less President Bush benefits from his prestige as a war leader – and the more the national conversation turns to new subjects on which President Bush holds less of an advantage. On the other hand, the terrorists may be less sophisticated. They may hope to defeat their enemy George W. Bush in the same way that they defeated their enemy Jose Aznar. In which case – brace yourselves.
The author forgot one other option for the terrorists:
Wait until John Kerry becomes President, and then attack.
Body-part diplomacy.
(steely)
Decision Brief No. 04-D 11 2004-03-15
A win for terror
(Washington, D.C.): The war on terror suffered a body blow Sunday as Spanish voters responded to last Thursday's murderous attacks in Madrid by repudiating the party and counterterrorism policies of Prime Minister José Maria Aznar. Thus, with four synchronized bombs, the perpetrators - whether members of the Basque separatist ETA or operatives tied to Al Qaeda or some combination - have accomplished a surgical strike with potentially very far-reaching repercussions.
The Profits of Terror
For one, the Socialist leader and incipient premier, José Luis Rogríguez Zapatero, has made clear that he intends to honor his campaign pledge to withdraw Spain's 1,300-man contingent currently helping to stabilize Iraq. While Mr. Zapatero has left himself some wiggle-room (saying he might reconsider if the situation in Iraq changes or if there is a new UN mandate), if he goes ahead with this retreat, terrorists the world over will interpret the attack as a tangible reward for their bloodletting.
Of particular concern for democratic nations would be the reasonable conclusion that the timing of this terrorist assault - on the eve of closely contested elections - will result in the rejection of governments seen as determined to fight, rather than appease, the terrorists. If such an impression takes hold, it strains credulity that polling in any democracy will be allowed to proceed unscathed.
Counter-Counterterrorism
To be sure, Mr. Zapatero swears his top priority will be "to combat all forms of terrorism." Yet, it is hard to imagine that he will be able to be more effective than was Prime Minister Aznar, whose government is credited with having essentially eradicated the ETA. That is especially true if he adopts policies at home as well as abroad that deviate sharply from Mr. Aznar's, for example by treating terrorism as a law enforcement problem, rather than a strategic threat, and by promising to "understand the needs of the Basque country."
The terrorists would be especially gratified if, as Mr. Zapatero suggests, their attack will have the effect of denying President Bush a key partner not only on Iraq, but in the war on terror more generally. The incoming prime minister has pledged that he will "return Spain to its rightful place in Europe" and distance his country from Mr. Bush and the U.S. strategy of offensively and, if necessary, preemptively engaging terrorist cadres, networks and state sponsors.
The Free World will also suffer to the extent that the attitude of some Spanish voters is reflected in other governments' policies. As the New York Times reported Monday, "A 26-year-old window frame maker, who identified himself only as David, said he had changed his vote from [Aznar's] Popular Party to Socialist because of the bombings and the war in Iraq. 'Maybe the Socialists will get our troops out of Iraq, and Al Qaeda will forget about Spain, so we will be less frightened,' he said." (Emphasis added.)
The possibility that such naivete could prove infectious is all the more troubling since even some European leaders who have preferred accommodation to confrontation when it came to terrorism and its sponsors appeared jarred by the Madrid bombings. For example, the Associate Press reports that French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin "says no country should consider itself safe from terrorism. He says they must be mobilized and that 'vigilance is essential.'"
This is arguably especially true of Spain. As national security analyst Steven Daskel has observed: "Spain was a prominent and beloved piece of the dar al-Islam [Muslim world] for 600 years, and the Islamists' long-term goal is the establishment of an Islamist regime in what was once the heart of the Moorish empire. It is interesting to note that several of the attackers were not Middle Eastern Arabs, but rather Moroccans (the direct successor of the Moorish state) and Indians (another country which is claimed as 'rightfully' part of the dar al- Islam). Spain's upcoming retreat may save it for a while, but in the long run, Spain's decision in favor of a pro-appeasement government may...result in far greater threats to its security."
José Luis Kerry?
Finally, the Spanish vote may have important implications for our own election less than eight months away. John Kerry has assailed George W. Bush's war on terror in much the same way José Luis Rogríguez Zapatero has criticized José Maria Aznar's supporting role in that war. Sen. Kerry has said that the threat of terror has been "exaggerated" and that it should be treated more as an "intelligence and law enforcement operation." And the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate has promised to make policy changes similar to those embraced by the incipient Spanish premier - notably, by pledging that his policy will give greater weight to relations with allies and cooperation with the UN.
On March 8, John Kerry announced that unnamed "foreign leaders" were telling him "You've got to win this. You've got to beat this guy. We need a new policy." It is unclear at this writing exactly who told this to the Massachusetts Senator. One thing is clear, though. "Foreign leaders" of terrorist organizations and their state-sponsors who are doubtless thrilled with their team's take-down of the Spanish government, would be even more pleased to see the United States get an administration committed to a "new policy" towards terror.
The Bottom Line
To the extent Mr. Kerry continues to promise the sort of evisceration of U.S. counterterrorism policy now afoot in the wake of the Spanish elections, he may not only enjoy the support of such "foreign leaders." He may also invite them - however unintentionally - to express that support here in an even more murderous way than they did in Spain.
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