Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread 5

CNN ^ | March 12, 2004

[thecabal]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- This week's deadly train bombings in Spain will not lead to a rise in the U.S. color-coded terror threat alert system, a Department of Homeland Security spokesman said Friday.

"Based on the current intelligence, we have no specific indicators that terrorist groups are considering such an attack in the U.S. in the near term," said department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse.

[Indie]

Good morning Cindy, and everyone. Well I'll have to say I was hoping Israel would quit playing PC and they did. Yassin is now in a very undesirable place, with his eyes opened to his deeds, but with no way out of the chain he had forged for himself in life.

Cal: any ideas on the elk.

JP: Harley still improving?

Revel: I hope whatever important things are going on work themselves out for you.

Off to work for awhile. Hope the day goes well for all.

~Indie

[Velveeta]

bookmark

[tmp02]

Gold shooting up to $418 this morning.

[Mossad1967]

Interesting article:

Reprinted from NewsMax.com

Terror Alert
Christopher Ruddy
Monday, March 22, 2004
The terror network known as al-Qaeda must be ecstatic about its recent Spanish operation.
It was able to pull off a massive undertaking that led to 10 near-simultaneous explosions, killing 202 people and wounding more than 1,200.

Clearly, the effort was well planned and well timed.

Here is what we can learn and surmise from this event:


Western Intelligence Still Not Working Well
Such a massive operation two and a half years after 9/11 demonstrates that the U.S. and our allied intelligence agencies still have not penetrated the terror networks to prevent future attacks.


Terror Groups Well Organized
The idea that the terrorist groups are a ragtag bunch of anarchists is nonsense. They are clever and well organized. They pick and choose their targets.

The bombings not only influenced Spanish elections but also turned a U.S. ally against us and sent serious ripples across Europe. The terror operation achieved this not by happenstance, but through a level of thinking and sophistication that should be alarming.


Timing Impeccable
A terror attack just a week earlier might have caused the bombings to backfire against the terrorists. And had the bombings been too close to the Spanish election – say, two days before – they also might have helped the governing party.

As with 9/11, the attack took place on a Tuesday. The terrorists are well aware of the news cycle and that they get more press with spectacular attacks early in the week. This is why Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are always “red” days in New York and Washington.


Terrorists Can Strike U.S.
Americans have been lulled into a false sense of security. Many Americans actually believe that we have prevented al-Qaeda from attacking us on U.S. soil.

The FBI and other agencies may have foiled some plots, but if al-Qaeda really wanted to launch attacks, even on a small scale, it could have done so a long time ago.

Think about the terror wreaked by snipers Muhammad and Malvo. Or what a single suicide bomber could do here, as they regularly do in Israel.

These acts have not happened yet in the U.S. only because al-Qaeda and its backers think it unwise.


Terrorists Will Benefit From Attacks Against U.S. Now
The terrorists watch the U.S. polls. They realize this election is shaping up to be very tight.

They know that a Democrat in the White House is far better than another term of George Bush. They want Kerry to win. They are emboldened after their huge victory in Spain.

But they also know America is not Spain. A terrorist act too big or too close to the election would most certainly backfire against them and help re-elect President Bush.

Americans in immediate crisis have always supported their president.


The Democrats Have Teed the Ball for the Terrorists.
But if the terrorists strike from now until Labor Day – well before election season officially begins – they may well help the Democrats.

Here’s why:

President Bush and his administration have consistently stated that America is safer because of his war on terror, including America’s invasion and occupation of Iraq.

The Democrats, increasingly, have stated that America is not safe, that Bush has ignored homeland defense, and that the war in Iraq was either a diversion or an outright mistake.

Consider what happens if the terrorists launch a spectacular attack or attacks here in the U.S. in the next few months.

I can almost write the Kerry playbook.

At first Kerry and the Democrats will “rally ’round the flag” and there will be no criticism of the president.

But that will last only a short while, and many of Kerry’s surrogates will soon – within a week of the attack – be out of the box saying, “We told you so ... Iraq was a mistake ... Bush’s policies failed ... We are not safe,” etc.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Republican John McCain, who strongly supported the war against Iraq, ccomes out swinging against Bush, arguing that the war should not have precluded more emphasis on homeland defense.

No doubt the Democrats’ constant theme for months will be “Bush failed, America is not safer.”


Good News on WMD
The good news is that if there are terror attacks this year, they likely will not employ weapons of mass destruction, such as a dirty nuke going off in New York or Washington.

An attack too horrific will help Bush and prove Bush’s point that WMD pose an enormous threat.

Even if we did not find WMD in Iraq, the American people will realize that his worry was justified and his policies are working as we hold countries like Libya, North Korea and Iran accountable.


If Bush Is Re-elected
If George Bush is re-elected, the gloves will be off.

He is feared by more powerful enemies than al-Qaeda. Countries such as North Korea and Iran have been playing a delay game, waiting until after the 2004 election.

These rogue states know they made tremendous gains during the previous Democratic administration and they can expect the same if Kerry wins.

So, if Bush wins, we could see two scenarios: Rogue states might become desperate, and attacks against the U.S. will be vociferous and concerted; or we may see these states capitulate the way Libya has.


If Kerry Wins
If John Kerry is inaugurated, he has already promised to move this war from the Pentagon to the Justice Department. All the bad guys will breathe a huge sigh of relief, and they will have years to regroup and grow in power.

Since the terror axis wants Kerry, there probably would not be any serious attacks on U.S. soil for some time after his inauguration. But this will be the quiet before the storm, and the next set of attacks in the years to come will make 9/11 look like a July Fourth fireworks display.

Final Thoughts

Of course, much of what I suggest is based on conjecture.

However, if you believe, as I do, that the terrorists are not crazy but are rational actors and that rogue states play a greater role in their activities than we are told, then things may unfold as I suggest.

[Velveeta]

That's quite a jump!

[freeperfromnj]

The market is taking a hit early. It will probably end up below 10,000 today.

[tmp02]

Dow down 112.00 points in the first half hour!

[tmp02]

You're right...it sure look like a down day...

[all4one]

Top Terror Suspects May Have Escaped Besieged Tribal Fortress Through Secret Tunnel (Wana, Pakistan)

By Ahsanullah Wazir Associated Press Writer

Published: Mar 22, 2004

WANA, Pakistan (AP) - Top al-Qaida terrorists may have escaped a siege by thousands of Pakistani soldiers through several secret tunnels leading from mud fortresses to a dry mountain stream near the border with Afghanistan, a security chief said Monday.

The longest tunnel found so far was more than 1 mile long and led from the homes of two local men - Nek Mohammed and Sharif Khan - to a stream near the frontier, said Brig. Mahmood Shah, head of security for Pakistan's tribal regions.

"There is a possibility that the tunnel may have been used at the start of the operation," Shah told journalists in Peshawar, the provincial capital. He said the tunnels began at the homes in the village of Kaloosha and led in the direction of a mountain range that straddles the border.

Three senior officials have told AP that they believe al-Qaida No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri may have been at the site, though the government has repeatedly said it does not know who is inside. President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Thursday that a "high-value" target was likely involved. The militants may have used the tunnel to escape during the disastrous first day of the operation on Mar. 16, when at least 15 soldiers were killed in fierce fighting. Still, Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain, the commander of the operation, said over the weekend that authorities believe an important terrorist remains inside, based on the level of resistance of the holdouts.

Pakistan's military said it was conducting DNA tests to identify six suspected foreign terrorists killed in the fighting, but would not elaborate on whether they included any important terror figure.

Five bodies of what appeared to be 25- to 30-year-old men were displayed to journalists at a military mortuary in Rawalpindi, a city near the capital Islamabad, late Sunday. Al-Zawahri, an Egyptian surgeon, is 52 years old.

The bodies were laid out on stretchers and in open coffins in bloodied clothes. Military officials said they were all foreigners, but it was impossible for journalists to determine their nationality. They said the sixth body had decomposed and that it would have been inhumane to show it.

"At this moment, whatever information we have about the tests we would not like to give out until we are 200 percent sure who they are," army spokesman Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan told a press conference.

"For us, every foreigner who is caught or killed, is important because we do not know who they are," Sultan told AP earlier. "We took the decision to do DNA tests to confirm the identities of these people."

"I cannot say if any among them is al-Zawahri," he said. ……

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAUPV6N4SD.html

[knak]

I thought it was the WTC.

[rickylc]

I wondered this about Iran also until I started following the daily Iranian thread here on FR. We are using kid gloves with Iran because we have great allies in the Iranian people. The Mullahs are hated in Iran and it sounds as if the gov't is about to topple. We don't want to go in and sour things. The Iranian people want our moral support and an end to all deals that could help the current regime. They do not want our military going in. At least at this point. I think we are also not pushing for sanctions very hard for the same reason. Sanctions may hurt the Iranian people more than the Mullahs. I think we are waiting and hoping for a revolution in Iran. That would be the most significant victory we could ever have without firing a single shot. If Iran falls, Syria will be right behind. We would then have 4 democratic regimes in the middle east, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Can you Imagine how wonderful that would be? Particularly if the Iranian people are the ones to pull it off by themselves. The Iranian people love the US and hate the current regime. We want to keep it that way.

[Mossad1967]

Latest from Debka
Re: Northern border

Just before 18.00 IST, Hizballah launched heavy trans-border bombardment of four IDF border positions, eliciting Israeli return air, artillery strikes against Lebanese terrorist posts. Direct hit to Hizballah weapons dump sent black cloud over Galilee panhandle. Fire exchange continues.

[Calpernia]

Where is silver?

[all4one]

Decoding the Chatter Inside the Nerve Center of America's Counterterrorist Operations

By TIMOTHY J. BURGER

Most of America is sleeping, but deep within CIA headquarters in northern Virginia, officials pulling overnight duty are scarfing junk food, soft drinks and coffee as they surf mountains of intelligence reports for the latest potential threat to Americans. These are the men and women of the year-old Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC). As they sit at gray, modular workstations equipped with secure computer terminals and phones, their toil is long and arduous but never dull. "It's day right now in half the world, so this shift's pretty fast paced," says an official. "In another hour, it's morning prayers in East Africa. It's morning already in Kabul."

In an unprecedented tour of TTIC's interim quarters as well as the CIA's Counterterrorist Center and the pipeline that leads to the site of President Bush's top-secret daily intelligence briefings, TIME correspondents got an inside look at the nerve center of America's efforts against terrorism. The atmosphere was one of camaraderie mixed with urgency. Asked how often a night goes by without any potentially alarming intelligence reports coming in, an official replies, "I haven't had a night like that. There's always something."

Each day, officials at TTIC (pronounced tee-tic) examine 5,000 to 6,000 pieces of intelligence, trying to assemble the best picture of what's out there. Staffed by representatives of about a dozen government entities, TTIC strives to address the failure of agencies to share vital intelligence before 9/11. "We have an FBI analyst who's sitting next to a CIA analyst who's sitting next to a Secret Service analyst who's sitting next to a Coast Guard analyst," says TTIC chief John Brennan, a senior CIA officer. "They take information from their different systems and say, 'Hey, have you seen this?' or 'Is this something that affects what you're doing now?'".....

Link to Article

[WestCoastGal]

I also saw a thread started last night about 8:30pm pst about another Arizona incident. I didn't bookmark it and now I can't find it.

With regard to the pickup and the tanker, I don't know how hard you would have to hit it to cause an explosion but I would guess pretty hard. These news reports never follow through with who was driving the pickup and exactly how this happened.

[MamaDearest]

Live by blowing or having people blown up, die by being blown up.

Or offer your children so that they may be blown up next of their own free will. Life has no value at all to them except for political (in the name of religious) value.

[MamaDearest]

They'll need a location in which they can all self-destruct for their show of support (vacant field in the middle of some desolate spot).

[freeperfromnj]

Or offer your children so that they may be blown up next

This was the ultimate horror. They don't even value the lives of their own children. The press was OK with it - barely heard a word about it (with the exception of the NY Post).

[freeperfromnj]

POLISH POLICE DETAIN 4 TERROR SUSPECTS

By Monika Scislowska
The Associated Press
3/22/2004, 11:35 a.m. ET

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Polish authorities were investigating Monday whether three Pakistanis and a Ukrainian detained in Warsaw might have terrorist links after finding marked-up maps in one of the men's apartments.

Police were also looking into the possibility that the case involves human smuggling, spokesman Pawel Chojecki told The Associated Press.

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/international/index.ssf?/base/international-5/107997058325160.xml

[Calpernia]

South Jersey had an earthquake this morning. 2.0 mag at 10:30am.