But until then, I'd sooner bet on the weather in New England.
I'm no election expert, but that's they way I have always understood how the primaries work. I remember the 1976 Republican Convention where Reagan and Ford were close enough that the Super Delegates were in play, even though Gerald Ford had won a majority of the State Primaries and a majority of the Delegates. Gerald Ford was gracious enough to invite Ronald Reagan to the stage after the delegates casted their votes and after Ronald Reagan was done with his short speech, the people at the convention could see they nominated the wrong man. It was an incredible evening in politics, unfortunately it resulted in a Jimmy Carter win and 4 years of stagnation and embarrassment