Posted on 03/12/2004 2:17:55 AM PST by JohnHuang2
MADRID, March 12 (Reuters) - Bombs killing nearly 200 people have injected a deadly new element into Spain's weekend election and could swing voters depending on whether the attacks were the work of Basque guerrillas or Muslim militants.
If the government's initial suspicion that ETA was behind the blasts turns out to be right, this could benefit Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's ruling Popular Party (PP) which has campaigned on its tough line against the Basque separatist group, analysts said.
If, however, some indications al Qaeda could have been behind the attacks gain credence, many Spaniards might point a finger at the PP for stirring Muslim wrath by backing Washington and London in Iraq.
"Assuming it was ETA, the obvious emotional interpretation is this will make people back the party with the toughest line against them," politics professor Josu Mezo said.
"If it was an Islamic extremist group like al Qaeda that carried out the attack, everything would change. But it is really impossible to predict at the moment."
The government said it believes ETA -- listed as a terrorist organisation by the United States and European Union -- was most likely to blame for Thursday's bombings of four packed trains at Madrid stations.
But police have found a suspicious van containing a tape in Arabic, and a London newspaper received a letter purporting to come from a group linked to al Qaeda claiming responsibility.
Analysts warned the unprecedented scale of the attack had shocked Spaniards so deeply their reaction at the polls was hard to guess.
If it was ETA, might some Spaniards in fact react on the contrary, they asked, by seeing it as evidence of the PP's failure to contain ETA? If it was al Qaeda, might that not just as well provoke a rallying round the status quo -- the government -- as a backlash because of Iraq?
HIGHER TURNOUT COULD HELP SOCIALISTS
And with many Spaniards eager to make a public show of support for democracy and rejection of violence, could an expected higher turnout boost the opposition?
"Traditionally, when there has been a bigger turnout, that has benefited the Socialists," Mezo said.
Recent polls had shown the PP ahead of the opposition Socialists, but by a narrowing gap. Most surveys showed the PP coming up just short of the 176 parliamentary seats needed for an absolute majority and the 183 seats it won in 2000.
"In recent days there has been a reduction in the PP's lead. But if these brutal attacks were the work of ETA, that could logically be halted," politics professor Julian Santamaria said.
"If it's ETA, most people suppose this will benefit the PP but people are so disoriented that I find it very hard to make a prediction. Maybe some people will now vote who hadn't planned to, others who meant to vote will now stay at home, and some will change their minds about who they vote for."
All parties called off the last two days' of campaigning while Spain enters a period of mourning.
Socialist candidate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has vowed to pull out the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq if the United Nations does not take charge there by mid-year. PP candidate Mariano Rajoy is expected to follow Aznar's policies if he wins.
About 90 percent of Spaniards opposed the war and two-thirds want troops to come home, according to polls.
For most, however, speculation about Sunday's election was far from their minds as they assimilated Thursday's horrors.
"My thoughts are with the dead now, I can't begin to think about the electoral consequences," analyst Juan Diez said. "We've never had anything as terrible as this, it's impossible to say how the Spanish people will react. It's guesswork."
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