Show 'em my motto!
Posted on 03/11/2004 9:25:18 AM PST by churchillbuff
A sure thing slips away for the GOP By Jim Spencer Denver Post Columnist
If Bob Beauprez is the answer, what is the question?
Try this:
How does a political party with a stranglehold on a state's congressional delegation lose its grip in little more than a week?
Colorado's Republicans are now reeling worse than the state's Democrats were nine days ago in the race for the U.S. Senate.
Way back on March 2, Democrats could do no better than a rich sacrificial lamb, computer software millionaire Rutt Bridges, and some less-well-endowed candidates - school administrator Mike Miles and Denver lawyer Brad Freedberg.
Then, Republican incumbent Ben Nighthorse Campbell said he wouldn't seek re-election. Digestive troubles caused by stress mimicked a heart attack, driving Campbell to retire.
Today, his party's leaders risk a collective coronary. Gov. Bill Owens, the presumptive replacement for Campbell, didn't run. To his credit, Owens will tend to a shaky marriage and a shakier state economy.
Campbell would've won in a walk.
Owens would've won in a trot.
Other Republicans get to sprint start to finish with no guarantee.
As he bowed out, Owens encouraged Beauprez, a congressman representing Denver's suburbs, to run.
Beauprez won his seat in Congress by 121 votes in 2002.
Retiring Rep. Scott McInnis, former Rep. Bob Schaffer and current Rep. Tom Tancredo are among others thinking about the Republican Senate nomination, along with state Treasurer Mike Coffman.
There's not a surefire winner on the list.
McInnis claims to want out of D.C. Tancredo is an anti-immigration extremist. Schaffer lacks name recognition. Coffman is better positioned to run for governor.
With Campbell running for re-election, Colorado's U.S. Senate race "was a done deal," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and a nationally recognized expert on congressional elections. Without Campbell and Owens, "it's a pure tossup."
As Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar entered the race Wednesday afternoon, the scales threatened to tilt away from a party that now controls both houses of the Colorado General Assembly, five of the seven seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and both seats in the U.S. Senate.
"Salazar would be the strongest (Democratic) candidate," Sabato said.
National Democrats, especially Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, encouraged Salazar.
"He thought I had the right background," Salazar said.
Democratic strategists like the fact that Salazar is Hispanic, has won a statewide election and is moderate and popular. His entry into the race inspired Bridges and Rep. Mark Udall to bail.
Udall met with Salazar for two hours Wednesday morning before calling off a candidacy he announced Tuesday.
Standing beside Salazar and Bridges on the steps of the state Capitol on Wednesday afternoon, Udall joked that his might be "the shortest Senate campaign in history."
Udall represented a credible threat to Republicans, according to Sabato. But Udall was more vulnerable than Salazar, said Sabato, because the GOP could have portrayed him as a Boulder liberal.
Udall also would have had to deal with "Little Red Hen Syndrome." You know the story: No animals would help the Little Red Hen make the cake, but everyone wanted to help her eat it.
Udall chose not to run against the tough Republicans. He jumped in when opposition was down to relative lightweights.
Udall had plenty of icing and crumbs on his mouth and no flour on his hands. But he left mostly with egg on his face.
Meanwhile, the importance of Colorado's U.S. Senate contest increased exponentially.
"A few months ago we were talking about whether the Republicans would gain four or five seats" in the Senate, Sabato said.
If President Bush's support remains lukewarm - "a big if," Sabato cautioned - Democrats could hold fast or maybe pick up a seat in a body where Republicans enjoy a 51-48 advantage with one independent.
National Democrats and Republicans seem poised to pour millions into Colorado, where the 2002 Senate race cost more than $10 million. Salazar said he would need $3 million to $7 million to mount a competitive campaign.
Owens said polling by the National Republican Senatorial Committee showed he could have won the seat that is now up for grabs.
Dan Allen, a committee spokesman, wouldn't say how other Republicans polled.
Instead, the GOP put a pretty face on an ugly picture.
"We're fortunate to have a deep bench in Colorado," Allen maintained. "We think we'll have a candidate who can hold the seat."
That's bold talk from a party whose grasp is now as firm as that of a sumo wrestler dangling from a greased rope.
Jim Spencer's column appears Sundays
Show 'em my motto!
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