I think you are both right.
Tancredo does not have the best chance of winning and that's one reason why I support McInnis first.
If Tancredo did win the primary his biggest problem would be the leftwing trying to paint him as a racist. Then of course there are the wingnuts on the far, far right who wouldn't be happy because he isn't a racist.
I agree that McInnis is the best candidate, although I also think others could win the seat, like Coffman or perhaps Beauprez. I would prefer that Beauprez hold onto his swing district with his incumbency advantage.
I also agree Tancredo is too polarizing to win unless the Dims rip themselves to shreds in a primary. Allard and Beauprez were both helped in close races by Catholic, Hispanic pro-lifers who were turned off by the Dims' pro-abortion rhetoric. Tancredo wouldn't get those votes.