Sightings Show Clearer Picture of Qaeda Leader

NewsMax/PRN Newswire ^ | 3/7/04

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

Using powerful software called Analyst's Notebook that helps to piece together data on criminal and terror networks, U.S. military and intelligence officials are increasingly confident they are narrowing Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, Newsweek reports in the March 15 issue.

Key to the search is "accumulated humint," or human intelligence, says one insider. Other officials tell Newsweek that an increasing number of "data points" -- reports of sightings -- have created an ever-clearer picture of bin Laden's area of operation as he appears to shuttle between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Now they've focused that picture to the point where they have been able to send in Predator unmanned aerial vehicles to search for him.

The man charged with finding bin Laden is former Navy SEAL and current rear admiral William H. McRaven, Newsweek has learned. He's heading up Task Force 121, a covert, miniature strike force with a command structure so secretive that McRaven's role hasn't even been reported until now.

Because bin Laden apparently no longer dares to use electronic means of communication, for fear that the U.S. would be listening, McRaven and his hunters are now trying to snare his couriers in transit.

They scored a major victory two months ago with the capture of Hassan Ghul, a Qaeda operative who was carrying what U.S. officials say was a strategic memo from Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, the mysterious terror leader allegedly behind the bombings of Shiites in Iraq. Ghul also yielded intel on bin Laden's position.

Task Force 121

Task Force 121, which also helped to capture Saddam Hussein under McRaven's command, represents something brand-new in warfare, a pure hybrid of civilian intelligence and military striking power, report Senior Editor Michael Hirsh and National Security Correspondent John Barry.

It is the most ambitious melding yet of CIA assets, Special Forces (mainly the Army's Delta Force) and the Air Force. Formed late last year as part of Joint Special Operations Command-the secret "black ops" under Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who until recently was deputy operations director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff-it is designed to produce a lightning-fast reaction should intel locate bin Laden or any other "high-value targets" anywhere for a few hours.

It's a work in progress: CIA Director George Tenet meets frequently with Gen. John Abizaid, the head of Central Command, to nurture the marriage. Within the past few weeks, some intelligence sources say, a U.S. Predator also spotted a suspect believed to be Al-Zawahiri somewhere in the border area.

Some Afghan and Pakistani sources, however, insist that bin Laden is several steps ahead-and that he will continue to outsmart his pursuers. A Taliban official in Pakistan, contacted by Newsweek, says he's heard that both top Qaeda leaders moved to more secure and separate locations in January, weeks before the spate of publicity about an American "spring offensive."

The Taliban official learned that, he said, from a ranking Qaeda operative, a Yemeni who told him that other Qaeda and Taliban fighters had moved into Afghan provinces more than 100 miles from the Pakistani border.

"We decided to leave the dangerous zone for safer areas," the Arab told the Taliban official, Zabihullah. "The sheik is now in the most secure area he has ever been in," the Arab said, referring to bin Laden. "We were all laughing at all these recent reports that the Americans had our sheik cornered."

Zabihullah also said he received an encrypted e-mail last Thursday from a senior Qaeda source in Saudi Arabia. The Qaeda operative told him not to be taken in by the American "psychological warfare" campaign about bin Laden's imminent capture. He assured Zabihullah in the e-mail that "the sheik is in a safer place than ever and is more healthy than he's ever been."

[anniegetyourgun]

"We were all laughing at all these recent reports that the Americans had our sheik cornered."

Laugh while you can, sucker.

[RoseofTexas]

HMMMM... something is fishy here, why would our U.S. military and intelligence officials deliberately give out such info to all the rags? Something doesn't click here! I SMELL a RAT mole in our intelligence committee!!

[Dog]

Analysts Notebook

[Peach]

Hi, annie!

Dog - thought the technology re the hunt for OBL would interest you.

[paul51]

things are never as they appear. One thing is certain, the hunt is on big time. Where, how, who, what, when will remain a matter of speculation until they bag him.

[Dog]

I'm already here.....:-)

This is the software that was used to track Saddam..

[The Wizard]

it was this move that allowed the 121 to find them...they aren't just in a safe place....usually meaning secure walls or some sort of security........ the difference between secure and under arrest is slim....

[Dog]

The raid in Wana,Pakistan recently that nabbed Zawahiri's son......was the key.....just watch.

[The Brush]

Doesn't this guy need dialysis every couple of days? I can't imagine his health could be improving much unless he had a kidney transplant in his cave.
His long term life objective consists of hiding, so I guess each day he isn't caught might be viewed as a triumph for his health.
The real question is if he'll stand and fight when he is surrounded or if he'll take the French escape and plead for his life.

[Kirkwood]

Is anyone familiar with this software? Does it use Bayesian methods or something else?

[Peach]

Sorry, dog - I didn't look:-) I should have known!

I think if we sent you over there, you'd find him, especially if you have a nose like a bloodhound (ala your screen name).

[Reelect President Dubya]

I'd love to see the little ^$&#$ captured, but I truly believe...

...He's dead, Jim.

[VaBthang4]

That notebook is only as good as the legitimate intel put into it...the ratio of legit to illigit data can make or break it.

Prayerfully, we have an overwhelming amount of legitimate data put into it.

[progop]

My gut is starting to tell me again (which has stayed my basic opinion this whole time) that UBL is dead.

We are going to bag Al-Zawahiri & Omar soon (Make that by August).....But I think UBL is dead. It is always strange how sightings of Zawahiri and Omar (while not common, do happen from time to time)....how are UAV (Predators)have been rumored to "sight" Zawahiri or Omar....BUT NEVER UBL (something is up with this.....he is not a ghost..or wait, yes he is, that is why there are no sightings of him)

Here's hoping our guys get each of them soon.

[Kirkwood]

I've often wondered if tracking the distribution of dialysis products would in any way get your closer to finding bin Laden. Just like ants bring food back to the queen, there must be bin Laden supports who are delivering a constant stream of dialysate, etc to bin Laden. There are only so many distributors of these products in the middle east.

[RoseofTexas]

I saw a movie called, Enemies behind the line, I think that was the name, any way in on of the US main military ships there was a special room that NO military personnel could enter without the captain's permission. This room, guarded by two full gear soldiers outside the door, had VERY sophisticated equipment, very top secret, anyway they were trying to locate their missing soldier by satellite. IT was very interesting and wonder if perhaps something like this does exist! It was fascinating to watch! Of course the movie had a happy ending they did manage to track him down and recuse him at the very moment the enemy was shooting at him....what do you expect from corny HELLywood...:)

[angkor]

He assured Zabihullah in the e-mail that "the sheik is in a safer place than ever and is more healthy than he's ever been."

What a sucker this guy is.

Their telephone calls, "encrypted" emails, increased points of contact, angst-ridden rumors and chatter are all being fed into the machine and digested by Analyst's Notebook.

When deciphering a network, it is the context and not the content of the communications that provides answers. What connects to what, who connects to whom.

Fools.

[Normal4me]

He ain't dead and he won't be "Captured". Hopefully we will get a little aerial video of him sticking his hands up in the air before a stinger missile destroys everything surrounding him including him!

[LouD]

Analysts Notebook is a more evolved implementation of a technique called social network analysis. You can download a similar (although less user friendly, and less purpose-specific) piece of software called Ucinet, that is based upon pioneering work in social networks done at UC Irvine.

http://www.analytictech.com/ucinet_5_description.htm