[Betaille]

"but whatever the solid Dem voting base is, they hate him."

To be fair, that may be true, but thats a real "chicken or the egg" statment. The Dem base is constantly changing(mostly declining), so naturally in the race against Dubya... Dubya-haters would be the Dem base.

[oceanview]

the Dems bas is not mostly declining at all. demographic changes are bolstering their base (more hispanics). states that used to be toss-ups, like NJ, are solidly Dem. States that used to lean Republican, like PA, now perhaps lean the other way. States that used to be solidly Republican, like FL, are now battlegrounds that lean R. Think about the electoral map for Reagans victory, its impossible for any Republican to achieve anything like that now.

And our current economic trends create more Democrats. As globalism continues to slide middle class americans down the wage scale into service jobs, they tend to vote Democrat because they now view themselves as needing things from government, and the Dems are shaking the bag of candy.