The State of the Race

WSJ Opinion Journal ^ | 2/26/04 | Peggy Noonan

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

On Tuesday Sen. John Kerry racked up his 16th, 17th and 18th victories out of 20 primaries and caucuses, reinforcing his stand as front-runner for his party's nomination and ceding nothing--no close calls, no hustings embarrassments--to Sen. John Edwards.

We know who the Dean voters were, and we could picture them--kids at the MeetUp, people entering politics for the first time. And we have a sense of who the Edwards voter is--someone who is still shopping, who is drawn to his sunny indignation or his Southernness. But who are the Kerry voters? The reigning clich

[reformedliberal]

One of my husband's clients is the lone conservative in a university English department.

Yesterday, she said there is much talk of how Dean was really the best candidate to beat GWB. There is a lot of buyer's remorse over Kerry.

A medical professional related to us over the weekend that several of his collegues are actually emotionally unstable over the election. The person speaking and his wife have switched from liberal to conservative over the past 3 years. They are not shy about what has become a passionate defense of GWB's adminisation. He has had liberal collegues get right in his face, expostulating, when they find he no longer agrees w/them. She has been exiled from a woman's group she was part of for over 20 years.

I don't believe the country is 50/50. From what I can tell, it is more 55%(R)/45%(D). Maybe 60/40. The middle has moved center right, IMO.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

He has had liberal collegues get right in his face, expostulating, when they find he no longer agrees w/them. She has been exiled from a woman's group she was part of for over 20 years.

Tell your friend he has my deepest, most genuine sympathies on this score. I had friends -- lifelong friends, at that point; friends since grade school, for more than a quarter-century -- denounce and renounce me, spluttering and cursing, when Ronald Wilson Reagan converted me to conservatism in 1980.

[AmericanVictory]

I'm sure it means we are at a crossroads and means that we need more actual leadership than we are presently getting, although George W. is edging toward it and Hanoi John hasn't a clue what it means.

[longtermmemmory]

Conservatives are rallying to the president with this. He has energized his core and those who are "uncofortable" with the notion of homsexuals marrying. (wait until they see what the taxbill will be)

Assuming the AWB sunsets. Bush will have a lock on the base (IF he can do something about illegal immigration)

I also find the fact only 17% will admit they are "liberal" is also heartening.

I think in 6 months time the state of the race will be demonrats fighting an "every man for himself" campaign to try and escape party extinction.

[dwills]

err, then you think a large segment of conservatives for kerry and against bush account for the polls?

what peggy and a lot of folks don't get is that a huge, growing chunk of likely voters (at least 40%) would prefer to be thought of as independent and are easily convinced of the 'moderateness' of whomever the media touts as a 'winner'

i'm predicting a sizable enough kerry victory to be characterized by a biased media as a 'mandate', justifying policies that will herald the rapid economic and military decline of America to equality with europe, china and an ascendant muslim coalition--unless republicans in swing states stand up and get the job done

[counterpunch]

[beckysueb]

If they are for Kerry, then they aren't true conservatives who think for themselves. Thinking people would never support him.

[GailA]

albore has charm???? As a Tennessean I find this funny.

[reformedliberal]

Happened to me, as well. Even earlier than Reagan: I was so proud of the Israelis in 1973 and was excoriated by fellow Jews and even family members who were *humiliated* and *ashamed* that Jews would fight.

I sorta hung in there w/some people, but by the 90s, I could no longer take the routine derision accorded to Christians, conservatives, Caucasians and America.

We just learned to pick our friends from higher on the curve.

[FreedomPoster]

>>A medical professional related to us over the weekend that several of his collegues are actually emotionally unstable over the election.

I have a close friend who's an anesthesiologist, who is politically Liberal, and I really don't understand it. He's a good guy, wife is a nurse and is a Liberal too, she's a great gal. They're not mentally unstable about it, but they are Dems, no doubt about it.

How can a doc paying $$$$$$$$$ a year for malpractice insurance support the party of the trial lawyers?

On the mentally unstable part - I'm certainly seeing that in a neutral online forum I'm in. Many of the Libs are just foaming-at-the-mouth crazy right now.

[Zeppo]

We have gone beyond tolerance in America; we have arrived at affection and sympathy and mutual respect.

Unfortunately, IMHO Noonan has the blinders on. This country is polarized, and there is a significant minority, perhaps as much as 30% of the voting population on the reactionary left, who are so consumed with hatred and intolerance of conservative thought and ideals that, as others have pointed out, it is not going overboard to describe them as unbalanced.

[reformedliberal]

Not at all. I think the polls are a snapshot in time, driven by themselves and supporting media.

Peggy Noonan *gets it*. She isn't ever afraid to hold a Republican's feet to the fire, either.

In your second 'graph, I think you are correct: people are poll and media-driven. However, all the *independants* I now know (and all the *centrists*) are really Greens or Progressives. I have never heard a conservative call themselves either. I used to characterize myself as someone who didn't belong to a particular party and in this election I am donating as well as working for Bush-Cheney. In talking to Leftists, it does serve my objective best to not call myself a Republican, however. I prefer *pragmatist*.

If you are a poll-junkie, you will see that W has maintained a consistent approval rating that bumps upwards everytime he responds to the criticism or goes to the country on something like protecting marriage.

GWB is going to win. He will have a mandate the media cannot ignore. In 2005, the media will not have election money to support their ad pages. Some outlets will fail, IMO, if they don't back this country, as even more people will stop reading them. That was happening last year. They just got a reprieve due to a GE.

Republicans are quietly working for the Bush-Cheney ticket already and I live in a blue portion of a swing state. However, it was only a narrow win here for Gore and one encouraging factoid is that a county w/a sizeable Green/Progressive population had already exceeded its quota of campaign workers for Bush as of 2/15/04.

Europe is taking on its Muslims, although it may be too little, too late. We will just have to wait and see. I doubt anything will succeed in lessening America's military. The rest of the world may be afraid of it, but when things get scary, who ya gonna call?

[maica]

He has had liberal colleagues get right in his face, expostulating,...

This is happening in work venues all over the country, as conservatives, who have held their opinions privately, are finally speaking up.

[metesky]

We have gone beyond tolerance in America; we have arrived at affection and sympathy and mutual respect.

Speak for yourself, darlin'.

[Colonel_Flagg]

When putative candidate Kerry is dinged and dinged again by the journalistic and political vetting process, when his votes and stands and record are inspected for implications, when the conviction that he's electable begins to wane--and all these things will happen, at least to some degree--what will it do to pro-Kerry fervor in the rank and file?

With all due respect to the brilliant Peggy Noonan, I will believe this when I see it. With the servile leftist media in this country, I just don't see it happening.

[uncbob]

How can a doc paying $$$$$$$$$ a year for malpractice insurance support the party of the trial lawyers?

Not only that I have had arguments with engineers that hate almost all liberals stand for and STILL vote democrat since they were raised that way

Absolutely maddening