Posted on 02/24/2004 12:59:46 PM PST by calcowgirl
Governor gets positive marks in latest survey
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SACRAMENTO – In a dramatic turnaround, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's $15 billion fiscal-recovery bond measure on next Tuesday's ballot is supported by half the likely voters, up from one-third who backed Proposition 57 last month, according to a new poll.
The results of the latest statewide Field Poll suggest the bipartisan campaign by the Republican governor and Democratic state Controller Steve Westly is working.
Schwarzenegger and Westly are promoting the bond measure and a companion balanced budget amendment, Proposition 58, which has majority support in the new poll.
The campaign, facing little organized opposition, launched a wave of television ads and mailers and held a series of town hall meetings featuring the governor and the controller. The two measures also have been endorsed by leading Democrats and Republicans and conservative and liberal groups.
"I think this is a reflection that people are looking for a bipartisan solution to put the state's fiscal house back in order," Westly said of the poll results.
The new poll shows the Proposition 57 bond measure leading with 50 percent of likely voters in support and 36 percent opposed. Last month, 33 percent backed the measure and 40 percent were opposed.
The Proposition 58 balanced budget amendment leads 55 percent to 28 percent, up from a spread of 49 percent to 22 percent last month. The two measures are linked, and neither can take effect unless voters approve both of them.
"The direction of change, the voter momentum, can be more significant than the actual numbers themselves," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "Support for the measures has increased as more voters have learned about them and come to judgment. That's very significant."
The Field Poll results are dramatically different on the Proposition 57 bond measure from a survey released last week by the Public Policy Institute of California. The institute's poll showed the measure trailing, 38 percent to 41 percent. That poll was was taken Feb. 8-16, while the Field Poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
The Field Poll surveyed 783 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The Field Poll shows support for Proposition 55, a $12.3 billion school bond proposal, has changed little from last month, with 51 percent in support and 40 percent opposed.
The fourth ballot measure isn't faring well. The poll showed the opponents appeared to be winning an expensive battle over Proposition 56, a proposal to lower the requirement for approving state budgets and tax increases from a two-thirds majority to a 55 percent vote of the Legislature.
Proposition 56 is trailing 33 percent in favor to 51 opposed, a shift from last month when support and opposition was nearly evenly divided, 37 percent to 36 percent.
For Schwarzenegger, the good news in the poll comes on his 100th day in office. A rejection of the $15 billion fiscal-recovery bond and balanced budget measures would be a setback for Schwarzenegger, who replaced former Gov. Gray Davis in the recall election last fall.
Schwarzenegger has made approval of Propositions 57 and 58 the cornerstone of his effort to address the debt he inherited and improve state finances in the years to come. In addition to requiring balanced budgets, Proposition 58 prohibits in the future the kind of borrowing proposed in Proposition 57.
Rejection of the measures, in addition to being a rebuke of his leadership, also could weaken Schwarzenegger's leverage with legislators. Defeat next week might take the steam out of his threat to go directly to the ballot with important proposals such as revamping the workers' compensation system if lawmakers don't make changes he finds acceptable.
Among the outspoken critics of the $15 billion bond measure are Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides and state Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Northridge, who say long-term debt allows the governor and Legislature to avoid difficult budget decisions now. They say the bonds rack up huge interest costs and burden taxpayers in the future.
The new Field Poll shows a sharp partisan split between Democrats and Republicans on all of the ballot measures.
On the Proposition 57 bond measure, Republicans are in support 63 percent to 24 percent. Democrats are nearly evenly split, with 41 percent in support and 42 percent opposed; independents are divided 43 percent to 43 percent.
The campaign for Propositions 57 and 58 announced that new television ads will feature U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a popular Democrat who also attracts independents.
"The numbers look good," said Todd Harris, a spokesman for the Yes on Propositions 57 and 58 campaign, which expects total spending to reach $8 million to $10 million. "But we are not going to slow down for a second."
DiCamillo said that the type of voters who turn out may play a key role in determining the fate of the school-construction bond measure, Proposition 55. Democrats are in strong support, 65 percent to 25 percent, and Republicans are strongly opposed, 37 percent to 53 percent.
Kam Kuwata, a Yes on Proposition 55 consultant, said the school-bond campaign, which has spent more than $7 million so far, has "a lot of work to do in the last week. But we are pretty confident that if the voters turn out, we are going to make it."
The most expensive battle, the proposal to reduce the number of legislative votes needed for budgets and tax increases, also has one of the sharpest partisan divides.
The Field Poll found that Proposition 56 is opposed by more than 2-to-1 among Republicans while Democrats support the proposal 44 percent to 40 percent.
The supporters of Proposition 56, public employees unions and other groups, have spent more than $10 million. The opponents, funded by oil, alcohol and other industries that fear they might be targeted for tax increases, have spent more than $7 million.
A consultant for the Yes on Proposition 56 campaign, Gale Kaufman, questioned the big shift toward opposition shown in the Field Poll.
"It's not what we have seen in any of our polling," Kaufman said.
Kaufman said her polling is similar to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week showing support and opposition for Proposition 56 to be even. A No on Proposition 56 spokesman, Al Lundeen, also said their polling is closer to institute's poll than Field's.
The really great news is that Prop. 56 is going down! If that passed, we would see spending and tax increases passed like crazy. Arnold would either have to keep vetoing everything (and get pounded by the Dems in the next election), or cave in on his tax pledge (and lose in the Republican primary in 2006).
Actually, if you dig even farther, you will find this to be myth.
In fact, $3 billion of the Bond Revenue is included in Arnold's budget
proposal for NEXT YEAR to supplement continued overspending.
Thanks.
It's possible. It'd be tight, but it's possible. What Arnold needs to do is to show them that he has the bully pulpit and the veto pen, and that he intends to put them to use. If they're convinced that he's serious, they might eventually cave. If they don't cave, they risk the state running out of cash, taxes soaring, and voters backlashing in November.
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