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Feb 22, 8:49 PM

Small rockets hold big potential

BY CHRIS KRIDLER
FLORIDA TODAY

CAPE CANAVERAL-- Hopes are growing for smaller rockets, which could lift satellites or bombs with a few minutes' notice, instead of in days or weeks.

The Air Force is studying how it might use such rockets, which could be ready and, on demand, deliver bombs halfway around the world or put small satellites into orbit to monitor "hot spots."

It's like buying the right car, said Col. Nat Thongchua, director of the Rocket Systems Launch Program with the Space and Missile Systems Center in Los Angeles. You wouldn't commute in a school bus, just as you wouldn't want to fly light cargo in a big rocket, he said.

"You can make anything responsive if you're willing to put the rocket on the pad," he said, but it's a lot more expensive to make a big rocket ready to go at any time.

Companies such as Space Exploration Technologies or SpaceX, run by PayPal founder Elon Musk, are working to build the small, cheap rockets sought by the Air Force and by small countries that have satellites but no launchers.

Still, much of the small-rocket market is on the drawing board.

"It's always right around the corner," said Phil McAlister, director of space and telecommunications for consulting firm Futron, "and it's always been right around the corner, probably for the past 10 years, and has yet to materialize in any significant way."

However, he said, he's feeling more optimistic about this segment of the rocket industry.

The small rockets the Air Force is considering in its Operationally Responsive Spacelift initiative would lift cargo of about a thousand pounds.

In comparison, the heaviest versions of the new Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle rockets, Boeing's Delta 4 and Lockheed Martin's Atlas 5, can lift 28,000 to 45,000 pounds to low-Earth orbit.

They are also much more expensive to launch, and take longer to prepare than what small-rocket proponents envision.

The price for SpaceX's Falcon 1, which Musk expects to launch with an Air Force satellite around May, is $6 million, he said.

A small Pegasus rocket costs more -- for instance, about $25 million to launch the Galaxy Evolution Explorer scientific observatory, according to NASA. But Orbital Sciences' Pegasus has established itself as a workhorse for small payloads.

A large rocket costs significantly more -- and makes a lot more money. A Delta 4 could amount to 20 or 30 times the revenue and employment of something like the Falcon, McAlister said. So the big rocket makers might not be itching to get into the small-rocket market, even if it starts booming.

"Even if it does happen, it's not going to be huge in terms of revenue," he said.

The small-rocket market may not mature for three to five years, McAlister suggested. "It's not going to happen overnight," he said.

Musk foresees a mostly government market, 40 percent from the United States and 40 percent from other countries, plus 20 percent from the commercial sector.

"It's much lower cost than the competitors out there," he said of SpaceX's Falcon. "In fact, it's even lower than the Russian alternatives."

Many small countries are developing satellites but lack the rockets to put them into orbit. Musk hopes to fill the gap.

Yet even relatively cheap prices might be too expensive for some potential customers, McAlister said.

"People who want these satellites don't have a lot of money," he said. "It's universities, it's foreign governments, things of that nature."

The Air Force plans to launch a defense satellite on a Falcon 1 this spring. And SpaceX has announced plans for a Falcon 5 to compete with medium-weight rockets.

The company keeps costs down by keeping the rocket design simple, Musk said. It has two stages. It uses low-cost aluminum rather than composites, with only a slight loss of performance, he said. Efficient propellants help make up the difference. And the first stage is reusable.

SpaceX is one of the companies the Air Force is looking at as it develops a plan to use small rockets.

The Air Force's FALCON program -- which coincidentally has the same name as SpaceX's rocket -- is focused on producing a small launch vehicle.

"I think we are at the time now, we have to get the industry involved more, other than the big guys," Thongchua said. He praised the efforts of such companies as SpaceX and Microcosm for pursuing cheaper ways to get to orbit.

Technology, not political need, is spurring the drive to launch smaller rockets, Thongchua said. As electronic components get smaller, so do satellites and other cargo.

Smaller rockets translate into faster launches.

"The idea is that within 24 hours or so from a call-up, you could place the asset of the launcher into an alert condition," said Lt. Col. Rick Einstman, deputy program manager for the FALCON program.

Once it's in a state of alert, the rocket could launch within minutes to replace a disabled satellite, send one to monitor a particular area, or even deliver bombs.

Small rockets have been around for years, of course. NASA used Scout rockets for more than three decades to lift small payloads into orbit.

Orbital Sciences has developed a niche for its plane-launched Pegasus, and it also offers the larger, ground-launched Minotaur and Taurus rockets.

Italy is developing the Vega. Brazil has tried to develop small rockets, but its program suffered a tragic setback last year with a fatal launch-pad accident.

Meanwhile, new rocket makers will have to compete with existing foreign systems, such as low-cost Russian rockets.

"Breaking in with a small launch vehicle is very, very tough," McAlister said.

Contact Kridler at 639-3644 or ckridler@flatoday.net

http://www.floridatoday.com/news/space/stories/2004a/022304rockets.htm