 |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:26 PM PST by Dales
Edited on 02/23/2004 3:48:05 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.
| |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/8/03 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 52% | Unnamed Democrat | 37% |
| 1/29/04 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 43% |
Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.
 |
|---|
| New Hampshire |
| Electoral Votes: 4 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 48% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/03 | Franklin Pierce College | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 9/11/03 | American Research Group | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 12/10/03 | American Research Group | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 1/20/04 | Associated Press | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Kerry | 40% |
| 2/20/04 | University of New Hampshire | Link | 511 LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 53% |
Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.
 |
|---|
| Wisconsin |
| Electoral Votes: 10 |
| 2000 Result |
| Gore 47.83% |
| Bush 47.61% |
Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 10/28/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% |
| 1/27/04 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Unnamed Democrat | 54% |
Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.
 |
|---|
| Oklahoma |
| Electoral Votes: 7 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 60% |
| Gore 38% |
Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.
 |
|---|
| Texas |
| Electoral Votes: 34 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 58% |
| Gore 39% |
Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.
| Summary Table | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush | Democrat | ||||||||
| Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
| ND (3) | CO (9) | GA (15) | NV (5) | OR (7) | NM (5) | CA (55) | NY (31) | VT (3) | |
| AL (9) | SC (8) | NC (15) | FL (27) | WV (5) | ME (4) | WI (10) | DE (3) | MA (12) | |
| MT (3) | KY (8) | MO (11) | NJ (15) | - | MI (17) | - | MD (10) | DC (3) | |
| WY (3) | KS (6) | VA (13) | NH (4) | - | PA (21) | - | WA (11) | RI (4) | |
| UT (5) | MS (6) | OH (20) | - | - | IA (7) | - | CT (7) | HI (4) | |
| ID (4) | SD (3) | IN (11) | - | - | MN (10) | - | IL (21) | - | |
| AK (3) | LA (9) | AZ (10) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| NE (5) | - | AR (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| OK (7) | - | TN (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| TX (34) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Designation Total: |
76 | 49 | 112 | 51 | 12 | 64 | 65 | 83 | 26 |
| Candidate Total: |
237 | 127 | 174 | ||||||
Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine
I am going to make an early prediction that Bush will get around 350 EV. I think there are many states that wouldn't vote for Bush no matter what, but I think he will pull away from Kerry as the campaign gets in full swing.
That is of course if things stay as they are now. Some huge gaffe either way, serious scandal, or earth shaking event could change the entire dynamic.
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