Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Three

Various

[AntiGuv]

That being said, I should add that I do not expect the status quo to hold in either Iraq or the economy. I certainly expect the former to improve by November, and while I am less certain about the latter, it is generally thought that the economy will improve as well. If so, then the question of course is whether perceptions of the economy will improve in tandem (and that has rarely been the case).

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Great info! However, you've got AL listed at 9 EV but the total of the column is 9 EV, which is correct?

[Conservateacher]

Please add me too!!!

[Diddle E. Squat]

OK, I admit to being guilty of misusing 'its'.

[Neets]

Do you just EVER worry about living in a country where ANYONE could POSSIBLY vote for a Kerry/Edwards/Hillary type?

I live in NY Bev...

[Neets]

You all have been added to the ping list this morning.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Nevada scares the hell out of me with Yucca Mtn. Bush won all the counties outside of Clark(Vegas) here, and it was still close. Gore got 52% in Clark County."

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The only two reasons why Gore got 52% in Clark County were (i) Gore promised to veto the Yucca Mountain depository, while Bush promised to base it on "sound science" and (ii) Gore was the incumbent VP of an administration that had seen the economy do extremely well and whose moral failures did not shock most people in Las Vegas (although they are by no means so socially liberal so that Bush's support for the marriage amendment would hurt him there). And even though Clark County's share of the NV vote has increased since 2000, Kerry will still need to get well over 52% in Clark to make up for his huge deficits in the rest of the state.

Much of the growth in NV has come from conservative Californians moving in. And most of the young families in the Las Vegas suburbs believe in hard work, not government handouts. And we all saw the public outroar over the tax hike in the state.

The only way that Kerry could hope to carry Nevada is by promising to work for the repeal of the Yucca Mountain depository and cross his fingers. But since Yucca Mountain is already a fait accompli, and Nevadans know the law won't be repealed, I don't think the issue will have any traction. Besides, Kerry can't promise to repeal the law because Bush would counteract by running ads in the other 49 states saying that Kerry wants to dump nuclear waste in unsafe facilities in their states. And oh yeah, John Edwards voted FOR Yucca Mounyain at least twice.

So I agree that Nevada leans to Bush.

[jack gillis]

Your Yucca Mtn. thing raises the "focused benefits, dispersed costs" conumdrum in political economy. Kerry's response to the Bush response you suggested would be, "Oh yeah? Go for it." In WHICH of those 49 states would opposing Bush's Yucca Mtn. decision be a cutting issue?

None.

And why wouldn't Kerry make exactly that promise? Hell, he doesn't even have to go that far. All he needs to do is point out what a trecherous slimy s.o.b. Bush was on the issue last time. "I'll try to stop it but no guarantees" could be more than enough.

[Chief Inspector Clouseau]

Please add me to the ping list...Dales' analysis is fantastic...

[JohnnyZ]

I think there is little doubt that the transplanted New Englanders and the jewish population helped Gore tremendously when he added Lieberman to the ticket. But I beleive there is more to it than just that.

Wasn't there an unusually large black turnout?

[JohnnyZ]

Its really pretty simple, I don't know why people have a problem with it.

[Doctor Stochastic]

You don't have to be a wether ram to know which way the wind is blowing.

[xzins]

Thank you Dales. Please keep doing this. During the election "maybe" you could be Hugh again? My fingers are trained to type Hugh pretty easily. :>)

[Clintonfatigued]

First things first. The Florida cliffhanger of 2000 had two basic causes. First, Jeb Bush tried to keep a Ward Connerly ballot initiative off the ballot by introducing his own phasing out of affirmative action. But he didn't consult the African-American community, who were outraged. They turned out in huge numbers that yearr and took it out on Jeb's brother. Second, Gore's shrewd choice of Joe Leiberman as a running mate excited the Jewish voters, who are numerous in the Palm Beach-Miami area (particularly Broward County) and they swarmed to the polls in response. Now, Bush is far more popular with Jewish voters and black anger towards Jeb Bush is slowly waning. I think Bush will win here even if Kerry is elected Presdient.

[Paleo Conservative]

Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first election

Nixon's reelection campaign was actually his third presidential campaign. He ran but lost (many think due to voter fraud in Illinois and Texas) in 1960. Nixon barely squeeked by in California in 1960, won it more comfortably in 1968 and really won big in 1972.