[LS]

As I recall, you were really close in 2000, but to refresh my memory, what was your final estimate?

[JohnnyZ]

Damn, we're losing already!

[Miss Marple]

Oh, I am glad to see you back with the explanations of the polls! I learned a lot from you last time! Thanks!

[GOP_1900AD]

This is excellent. Please keep it in front of us. Thanks, Mark.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Alabama has nine electoral votes, not the mere three you've tabulated.

[jayef]

Check your table. You have the wrong number of electoral votes for AL.

[Cap Huff]

Thanks for doing this analysis again. I really appreciated all that you did in 2000. It's a lot of work, no doubt.

[randita]

You da man!

I look forward to following your tracking data in the months leading up to the election.

[TomB]

Dales, my FRiend!!!

It seems like only yesterday.

*****sniff******

I am very much looking forward to your work.

If you have a ping list, put me on it.

[JohnnyZ]

Seriesly, though, Maine is a weird-ass state. I grew up there and I still don't understand the politics. IIRC, GHWB came in 3rd in '92 in Maine. It's probably the most NASCAR of the New England states, yet the "private" Yankee view of religion predominates. There's a weird love-hate thing with the Bus(c)h series (get it?). The state GOP is piss poor in many respects but still does okay somehow, and whatsisname came from way back to finish respectably against Baldacci. There's no great love for Massachusetts in the Real Maine, but southern Maine IS Massachusetts, they're just not willing to admit it.

[Cold Heat]

Good work!

This is going to be a nail biter!

The electors will make the difference again.

[Dan from Michigan]

I was waiting for the return of this.

No real disagreements. North Dakota, Vermont, and Bama are obvious.
As for Maine, I predict the dem to win the state, but I do think one electoral vote(they split their votes) there is in play, while the other is more dem. I wouldn't be suprised to see a split there, but as of now, I expect the dems to win all of Maine.

New Mexico is one of the toughest states for me to predict. In 2000, Bush cleaned up in a lot of the small to mid size counties there(mostly counties under 30,000 voters). He needs a good turnout in San Juan county especially(35,000 voters and 62% win).

The dems have a few big 'small counties' of their own that I think are on the reservations. Santa Fe County is a big dem stronghold with 49,000 voters.

Two other key counties here are Sandoval(31,000 voters - Bush won with 49%) and Dona Ana(47,000 - Gore won with 51%)

And the big prize is Bernalillo (Albequerque). 200,000+ voters and Gore won it with 49% and by about 4212 votes. That could swing the state right there.

If I remember right, there was a big snowstorm in NM on Election Day last time. That may have affected everything.

[Dan from Michigan]

Ping

[So Cal Rocket]

Maine assigns their 4 electoral votes by giving 2 to the winner of the statewide popular vote, 1 to the winner of the vote in Congressional District 1, and 1 to the winner of Congressional District 2. IIRC, Bush was VERY close to Gore in District 2 in 2000.

It is a distinct possibility that Maine's electoral votes will be split this time: 3 to the Dems, 1 to Bush.

[chimera]

Thanks for the hard work. Very informative.

[KC_Conspirator]

I remember your work from 2000. You ought to consider selling your services, they are pretty darned good.

[Wolfstar]

Dales, thank you VERY much for your superb work in helping to teach and inform us about polls, election trends, and related material. I look forward to your continued reports throughout this election season.

[DallasMike]

Funny, I was thinking of you just this morning. Would you like me to make graphs for you like the last election? I have better tools than I did 4 years ago and we can do some neater things, like linking to webpages stored on my ISP's server. We can also do some data mining and analysis that we weren't able to do back in 2000.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I think it's too early to say Maine and New Mexico lean slightly to the Democrat candidate. I would put them both as toss-ups, although if I was forced to choose which way they leaned, I would say NM is a slight lean for Bush and Maine a slight lean to Kerry. At the end of the day, I don't think Kerry (who supported NAFTA, BTW) will be able to carry NM unless he picks Richardson as his running mate (and Richardson publicly has said no on several occasions), since Bush will increase his share of the Hispanic vote there and since this time there shouldn't be a snowstorm in the southern (and Republican) part of the state.

[Sloth]

10/28/03 Research 2000 Link 600 LV 4% Bush 46% Dean 34%

I agree Vermont will go Dem, but does that polling data really support a 'Safe' designation?