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>>A follow-on piece says the PLAN doesn't intend to form dedicated air groups for these carriers, instead drawing on existing aircrews. For some years they've had pilots practice on mock flight decks.<<

I am not a naval aviator or NFO myself (did my time in the Marines) but I work professionally with a number of them and based on the discussions I've had with them about flight operations aboard ship, there is a qualitative difference in the demands of flying onto and off of a carrier when compared to flying from a mock deck on land. When not engaged in actual operations, flight operations aboard the big decks (and even the amphibs)are largely driven by the need to keep the aircrews current in their qualifications (which are extensive and expire frequently). But you probably know this, so I will just note that it is time consuming and expensive to create and maintain the necessary skill sets in these aircrews. The PLAN will probably end up creating de facto air groups (even if they are putatively land-based) simply because of the expense of the alternative - train every fighter and attack pilot to carrier standards.

>>I'm more worried about the simple fact they're now able to build larger warships at a faster pace. With all the shipbuilding technology they're getting from South Korea & Japan & the electronic expertise they're getting from all their advanced trading partners, along with the huge expansion of their maritime facilities, they could conceivably acquire the world's second-biggest navy by 2020.<<

Big navies require big $$ to operate and maintain. The expense is only justified if they have regional or global power projection requirements. Building alot of modern ships that sit pierside with undertrained crews does not create naval power. An analogy is owning a high performance car but rarely operating it. It is expensive eye candy until you begin to operate it alot and really learn the machine's and the operator's strengths and weaknesses. So the question is: what will the Chinese do will this big shiny Navy once it starts coming off of the ways? I would look at changes in their naval doctrine and at how extensive their fleet operations (deployments and large scale exercises) are. These will be indicators of how seriously committed they are to really expanding their seaward reach. Of course, unsaid in this conversation is the effect of three Chinese carriers supporting a PLAN move against Taiwan and the effect of their presence on our response when we come to Taiwa's aid. (At least I think we would come to the aid...)

>>But hey, Japan won't stand idly by & should keep a qualitative edge at least another decade. The western Pacific is looking to get rather interesting.<<

I agree. As dependent as they are on maritime commerce for practically everything, the Japanese will not cede control of their sea lines of communication to the Chinese. I think they are already feeling alittle uncomfortable with the Chinese launching a taikonaut (sp?) last year and announcing plans to go to the Moon. They are going to be playing catch-up now. Their recently announced intention to conduct manned space operations and the deployment of Japanese troops to Iraq (despite intense opposition at home) are early indicators of a building will to shift the focus of their military posture. But to what?

Japan just recently announced the start of a new "destroyer" program . . . destroyers with flattop decks. Basically, just another part of Koizumi's gradual reinterpretation of Japan's constitution. He seems to be going about it in a very, very clever manner in order to circumvent domestic doves. He just keeps the language as is and reads all the key terms in the most expansive way possible. Better than stirring up too many head-on fights, just do it and call it self-defense (joint exercises with India and Vietnam, patrols in the Straits, troops to Iraq, AWACs-type airborne radar ships, mid-air refueling). I say, go for it. The stronger our most important bilateral allies are, the better for us. Too bad Bush hasn't remedied Clinton's slight of spending 9 days in the PRC w/o even a courtesy call in Japan. Damn, that must've gotten under their polite skins! How rude.