Posted on 02/17/2004 7:52:03 PM PST by Pokey78
WASHINGTON — F.D.R.'s secretary of the Navy, Claude Swanson, gave us this political adage: "When the water reaches the upper deck, follow the rats."
This lugubrious saying is called to mind by the way the chairman of the Dean campaign stabbed his candidate in the back on the eve of his do-or-die Wisconsin primary.
Steven Grossman, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, knew that his last-minute defection would dominate the final-day news and crush Dean's hopes of a stronger-than-expected showing.
What drives an old pro to such political disloyalty? Was Grossman trying to win his way back into John Kerry's good graces by dumping Dean at the propitious moment?
To most political pros, that doesn't add up. As yesterday's stunning Wisconsin results show, it is in Kerry's interest for Dean to stay in the race even beyond Super Tuesday, March 2.
First, contested primaries keep Kerry in the news, waving victoriously, gaining TV "debate" time to blaze away at President Bush. Dean is now a useful sparring partner, jabbing lightly, the perennial loser who helps define the consistent winner.
The other service Dean now performs for Kerry is to split the not-Kerry Democratic vote. This is not yet an anti-Kerry vote, because the Massachusetts senator has stolen Dean's antiwar resentment and adopted Edwards's cheerful soak-the-rich pitch. But many Democrats could turn anti-Kerry if John Edwards continues to play the feisty Avis to Kerry's establishment Hertz.
There's a new phase a-coming. Kerry has had his comeback honeymoon. He has offered only a high-carb diet of populist platitudes in stump speeches. For a serious man running for a serious job, Kerry has not made a policy speech since December, when he was nobody.
The Washington Post editorialist just noted "his fuzziness on issues ranging from Iraq to gay marriage. . . . He voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement yet now talks in protectionist terms. . . . He must explain how he would manage the real and dangerous challenges the U.S. now faces in Iraq — without the fuzzing."
The Post's Fred Hiatt is not yet Meg Greenfield, but his influential wake-up call is sure to be echoed — especially in light of Wisconsin's results.
Kerry's momentum is now checked. The surprise was John Edwards's powerful showing, especially among independents, followed lamely by Dean. If Dean had taken the Grossman gas pipe and announced he would quit, I believe his anti-establishment vote would have split 2 to 1 for the Southerner Edwards, putting him way over the top — and in Wisconsin, by yimminy, where voters can hardly understand a word he's saying.
If Edwards is smart (and a trial lawyer who got $25 million for himself out of the medical profession must have an agile mind) he will carry an empty chair around New York, Ohio, Georgia and California demanding that Kerry debate him one on one about Nafta, where he is a genuine Smoot-Hawley protectionist and Kerry merely a primary-conversion protectionist.
Kerry would probably refuse to debate unless Dean were included, to steal the debate spotlight like Ross Perot. But if Dean wanted to get even, the embittered Vermonter would accept and then back out at the last minute to let the two frontrunners have at it. Oh, boy.
Did I just say "two frontrunners"? How can that be — when Edwards starts from so far behind? And when Kerry is belatedly lionized by Clintonites who thought a Dean debacle would pave the way for Hillary in 2008? And when Kerry's Kennedy acolytes turn ashen-faced only at the rumor that an Al Gore endorsement is imminent?
Here's how: Although Dean is not a kingmaker, he can be the frontrunner-maker. By staying in through Super Tuesday, this anti-Warwick could ensure Kerry's nomination. By throwing his waning strength (and Web fund-raising) to Edwards, he could help transform a routine Boston coronation into a neck-and-neck race down the homestretch.
There's a consummation devoutly to be wished. It would mean the weekly Kerry victory parade would be over and the media pendulum could swing again — and that the pressure would be on Edwards to cut the class warfare lest he expose the deep economic split in the Democratic Party.
So far, Susan Estrich is the only talkface on TV that I've seen with the balls to state that the Dems are running in secret backroom terror over the Kerry sex scandals. To admit now that the scandals are having effect is for the media to admit how much power they have lost to the internet.
Could it be because he has no policy speech to give! He is still a nobody - except in his own mind.
I love the reference to the RATS.
Susan seemed pretty sure of a Kerry/Edwards ticket on Fox a short while ago.
Where does that leave the hildebeast I wonder.
The force of Edwards' rise is proportional to the force that is behind him. The man just a few short months ago, when he was in the low single digits, said his campaign was right where he wanted it to be. Now how is that if he didn't have a few tricks up his sleeve and needed only to hang around until the others imploded? How is it that the virtually unknown Senator nabbed the endorsement of the largest newspaper in Iowa? Who is it that really planted the female intern story? Seems Edwards' goal is to use his Clinton-like southern charm and his behind the scenes ruthlessness to be the last man standing. Edwards was Bill Clinton's boy long before most of us knew who Clark was.
What has been set up, methinks, is Edwards/Clinton. But the bet is hedged by Kerry/Clark.
Still, though, I'm inclined to believe Clark may be running his own operation -- separate from, and probably antithetical to, the Clintons'.
The Democrat frontrunners have been successively shot from behind. A by-product will be the extended relevance of the Democrat primary season -- a Bush-bashing extravaganza, with wall-to-wall media coverage and cheerleading (a no extra cost option).
Nor is there yet a target for the GOP to fire back at. The flanks of these oh, so vulnerable targets are thus protected by the gauze of uncertainty.
There is a masterful political operation going on here...
Or, just as likely, they suspect the same things we suspect.
Kerry is looking for forward to stationery that says "The Oval Office". He lusts to enter the room to the strains of "Hail to the Chief".
He wants to ride "Marine One". Then lord it over the press on Air Force One. He wants Camp David, as an option to Nantucket.
He looks forward to flipping the switch and turning on the national Christmas tree.
But, as for doing any of the actual heavy lifting, he'll have a staff for that. And, of course, the UN...
I think there's a lot of incompetence, bad decorum and gamesmanship. don't give 'em too much credit...
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