Bush Has a Lock On These States (Vanity)

2/10/04 | Patrick1

[TheBigB]

Don't forget New Hampshire.

[quantim]

I largely agree with you. I think election 2002 was a great example... the dems are still scratching their heads over this, let alone 2000. The Electoral College rules. Even though I admit that the the overall popular vote will be rather close as the country is very polarized and getting more so, it will still translate into an electoral landslide. A mandate in the second term, IMHO.

[HighWheeler]

"one thing you have to remember is Florida was close due solely to Lieberman"

Not to mention all the corruption and vote tampering.

[AmishDude]

Edwards, interestingly enough, has a cool interactive map with the electoral votes pre-calculated. The 2000 vote percentages are here. Take the states Gore won by more than 5% over Bush: DC, RI, MA, NY, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, IL, CA, VT, WA, MI, ME. These are Safe Dem. -- 200 electoral votes.

Take the states Bush won by more than 5% over Gore: WY, UT, ID, AK, NE, ND, MT, SD, OK, TX, KS, MS, SC, IN, KY, AL, NC, GA, CO, VA, LA, WV, AZ, AR. Add TN because that's safe as long as Gore isn't running. That's 211 electoral votes which are Safe Rep.

The rest: PA, MN, OR, IA, WI, NM, FL, NH, MO, NV, OH are tossup.

Now make the threshold 3.25%. That makes 247 EV's for Bush, 223 for Kerry with 59 tossup. The only thing that can change this is if Kerry puts a Safe Bush state person on his ticket. Even so, that makes NC, for example, a tossup.

I should note that Kerry could take Safe Rep seats and Bush could take Safe Dem seats, but if that happens, nearly all of the tossup states will go that way too.

I agree with the poster above (was it you?), Lieberman was a big factor in Florida being so close. The FL 2002 governor's race was a portent of things to come. I'd say FL leans Rep in the same way that TN is now Safe Rep.

Bottom line: the Dems NEED Florida. They can't win without it. Gore also won all of the very very close contests except Florida. OR, IA, WI and NM all went with less than .5% difference for Gore, the next on the list is NH, which went Bush by 1.3%.

Bush has a gigantic structural advantage. Maybe Bob Graham could help with Florida, but he's awfully weird...

[Chris Talk]

Oh, you are right, I just supposed the original poster had included that in his original 223. One might perhaps also say Maine, which is another 4, plus then the 4 of New Hampshire, as places Kerry has to win...and places which might give Bush some of that last eleven votes he needed.

[alisasny]

Florida is more conservative now.

In 2002, Terry McAuliffe pledged that Jeb Bush, the president's own brother, would be defeated in his re-election bid. In fact, the DNC made the Florida governor's race their number one priority of the 2002 election cycle. Moreover, only two years removed from the spectacle of 2000, emotions and energy should have been be running extremely high among Democrats. Did we see massive Democratic turnout? Did Terry's threats come true, for once? Nope! What transpired was not a humiliating GOP defeat, but a Bush-brother victory by a count that exceeded Jeb's first election margin. He won by an amazing 13 points! It was a complete and utter repudiation of the revenge factor and clearly showed the strength of the GOP in that state. Without Florida as an obvious pickup target, the Democrats' options to gain ground shrink considerably.

And the DNC is going to have to spend a ton of money just to win California.

[Patrick1]

I will even give you the popular vote. Bush 53% JFK 45% Dean and the Greens 2%.

But again. Cheer up!

[SamAdams76]

Even with Florida taken out, we have a lock of 196 votes. Still not too shabby. There's work to be done for sure, but it's Bush's race to lose. If Bush can carry Florida one more time and get an Ohio or Pennsylvania to fall his way this time, it's going to be very tough for Kerry to win.

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

How many people on this forum bitch and moan about this election but don't get off their butts to do anything?

It was Super Saturday last weekend in Michigan.

First thing in the morning I was at a rally with JC Watts, then I headed off to a phone bank and got people to think about voting for Bush, volunteer and place lawn signs.

I will be busy all year making sure that my president is reelected. I hope that more here will be doing the same.

If you need more information on how to volunteer and help Bush, please feel free to freepmail me and I will assist you in your quest, no matter what state you live in.

You are either with us or against us. Vote for Freedom, Vote for Bush.

[cmsgop]

I like this thread!

[Maria S]

"I think Bush has a good lead in...New Mexico,"


Not so sure about that. With Governor Richardson being a possible JFK running mate (and remember, Richardson's one of Clinton's buddies AND since he's ethnically half Latino, has that vote) New Mexico may have to be written off. It IS a more liberal state than Texas.

[TheExploited]

The only item that might pull one of the states out the "lock" column is Jane Fonda Kerry's VP choice which I think is likely John Edwards or Mark Warner. A choice like Bill Richardson might put Arizona in play.

[TheBigB]

Of those, I say W. has >60% chance at FL, NH, MO, NV, and OH. W. won all of those last time, and he will do so again.

[Cicero]

It's dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch. I'm not normally superstitious, but I'm superstitious about that. Moreover, it promotes laziness and complacency.

More importantly, we don't just need to win the presidency. We need to win enough seats in the Senate to break the Democratic refusal to deal reasonably or compromise, especially on judges. Judicial appointments are the number one priority. They are absolutely essential. And Bush can't do it without more votes in the Senate. We need to sweep the country if we want to start shoveling out activist, constitution destroying judges.

[AmishDude]

Somebody on the other thread pointed out the Nader factor to me. I still stand by my Safe/tossup breakdown. Sure, putting all the Nader voters in the Kerry camp makes some states more of a tossup, but I don't think that's fair. I think the fear of Naderites may have increased GOTV efforts for the Dems. Plus, Naderites tend to stay home.

But your mileage may vary.

[KantianBurke]

I disagree. Here's my two cents:

Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - R
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - R
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - R
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Kentucky - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - R
New Hampshire - R
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - R
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - R
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - R

Electoral Totals: Rat gets 291, Bush gets 247. If Dubya signs the AWB and Kerry picks Gephardt (who brings in OH and MO) for VP, this result coming to pass becomes quite possible.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[Diddle E. Squat]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.

Total and utter baloney.

[Patrick1]

Vice Presidents are non-factors. None of the Bush lock states can be changed, or they wouldn't be "locks".

[AmishDude]

Well, NM is a tossup and a loss if Richardson is on the ticket. But I don't think he'll resonate elsewhere. He may be officially hispanic, but he won't help much in that department unless he changes his name to Guillamo Hijoderecardo.

[reformedliberal]

A friend in Texas, who is a lock-step Democrat,former military, supported the war and is now against President Bush on the budget and lack of WMD, says he hears a lot of whining in Texas against our President.

Texas Bush supporters: SPEAK OUT!

And if he is full of it, let me know, please.