Twenty-one Reasons Why Bush Will Win

Just four days before the election, muckrakers uncovered a dirty little secret on their GOP rival. Twenty-four years earlier, George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving. To make matters worse, he answered no when a reporter asked if he'd ever been arrested. It was the kind of bombshell that would have ruined his shot at the White House, except for the lead in the polls he had at the time. The effect of the report was evident later in exit polls. They indicated that a majority of people who made up their minds within three days of the election voted for Al Gore. Normally, undecideds break overwhelmingly to the candidate from the party out of the White House. In addition, an unknown number of voters who had been attracted to Bush's image of integrity were motivated to stay home. Without this perfectly-timed political hand grenade, Bush would have won the election with room to spare, and the blatant partisanship of the Supreme Court (of Florida, that is) would have remained local news. In all likelihood, Bush won't face a similar devastating revelation this year.

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In 2000, Al Gore enjoyed a huge advantage going into the election season. He was the sitting vice president during a time when the country was enjoying an extended period of peace and prosperity. Even under those circumstances, the American people thought enough of George W. Bush to elect him anyway. All things being equal, Bush will benefit from being in the incumbent party this time around. (I can hear Democrats mumbling something about Gore's poor campaign strategy losing the election. Maybe that contributed, but, nevertheless, Bush did possess a certain degree of electability. Imagine John Kerry..er..or not.)

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Special interests serving the Democratic party developed an intimidating get-out-the-vote machine during the 90's. That process culminated in an heroic effort in 2000. The result? Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top. Those Democratic special interests will be hard-pressed to match that performance and even less likely to exceed it.

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The United States of America was forever changed on that day in September when all of us were so violently ripped from of our mirage of security. Never again will peace be thought of as a given in American life. We are a nation at war. It is a war that will continue for a long time against a ruthless, unprincipled adversary bent on the merciless taking of civiflian life. They have stated their desire to kill us, each and every one, simply because we are Americans. In such times, we are instinctively drawn to leaders who show the determination to proactively confront and conquer the threats we face. Most of us understand that a co-existent relationship with these enemies cannot be negotiated; they must be subdued through absolute victory in the theater of war. Bush understands this, and Americans know it. I hesitate to bring politics into the War on Terror, but the facts are obvious. Our President and his party in general have shown themselves much more willing to implement the iron-fisted policies necessary to vanquish this insidious foe. Speaking loudly, while leaving the big stick in the closet, is not the trademark of this administration when it comes to terrorism. There can be no denying that George W. Bush is serious about actively protecting our people and our nation. The vast majority of voters, even those who may disagree with the path down which that action is taking us, take comfort, consiously or not, in the protection our military provides under the firm hand of our Commander-in-Chief. This sense of protection through vigilance will be a huge factor this November in polling booths across the country.

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The recession of 2000 started very early in Bush's presidency. So early, in fact, that it is absurd to suggest Bush's policies had anything to do with it. The downturn was compounded by the disastrous economic effects of September 11. Bush understood that America needed to pour on the fuel to keep our economic engine from stalling. His tax cuts and immediate tax rebates provided a boost that helped avert a deeper, longer recession. The economy has since turned the corner and is picking up steam. If the current trends continue, and they should, by November the economic outlook held by the electorate should be much improved. And Bush will benefit considerably at the ballot box.

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This is an excellent point brought up by PoliPundit last November. Here's the meat of those thoughts (I paraphrase just a little): "The Democrats made a major blunder in the 2004 presidential race by choosing to hold their national convention on July 26 in Boston. The GOP will be holding its convention in the first week of September. I could go on endlessly about why this helps the GOP, but here are four concise reasons: 1. Bush will be able to continue spending his Primary money until September and use his general election money from September to November. The Democratic candidate, however, will be out of money by July, because of a tough Primary, and then have to make his general election funds last from July to November. This exaggerates Bush's already crushing money advantage. 2. 9/11 will be a few days after the GOP convention. 3. By holding the Democratic convention on July 26, the Democrats risk losing the post-convention bounce in the polls by election day. 4. The summer Olympics are between the two conventions and will suck the air out of the DNC message."

The two months between September's Republican National Convention and Election Day will be a great time to be Republican. I can't wait!

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The weakness of this crop of Democratic contenders has been well documented. Suffice it to say that whoever emerges with the opporunity to face Bush will be no Al Gore, as if that were a boast.

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With the rulings handed down by the Supreme Court of Massachusetts and a law in Ohio banning gay marriage, we are on a collision course with this issue that will force it into the political spotlight this year. The country is largely opposed to gay marriage, generally ambivalent toward civil unions, and mostly against a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as a joining of one man with one woman. That is the national consensus. However, if we look deeper into the intensity of each group on these issues, we see a much different picture. A few supporters of gay marriage are adamant in their views. They will mostly vote against Bush regardless of his stance, notwithstanding log cabin Republicans. However, most people who support gay marriages and civil unions, and thus oppose an amendment, do not hold that position with a great degree of fervor. By and large, they will not be motivated to take their votes away from Bush or to make sure they get out and vote against him when they would otherwise stay home. It's simply not that big an issue with them. It is an entirely different thing for a large portion of those who support the amendment. Their opposition to changing the traditional definition of marriage runs deep and strong. It is a big deal to them. Bush's stand on this issue will directly create votes for him among those whose intense feelings on this issue will overwhelm their general indifference to the political process.

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Possibly the most significant development in the American election process since 2000 is the unbelievable strides the GOP has made in terms of volunteerism and organization. Once a domain dominated by Democratic special interests, get-out-the-vote is now practically a wash, and GOP operatives are frenetically working to increase the breadth and depth of grass-roots support structures all over the country. This is an amazing turnaround from 2000. It, alone, will turn many a close state into a comfortable Bush victory, while moving some comfortable Gore states within striking distance for the President.

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A startling event took place in 2002. It was startling both in its circumstances and in the lack of focus it received. That event was the Florida gubernatorial election. What happened there, when taken in the context of the voting debacle two years earlier, was truly phenomenal. I'll recap it for you:

In 2002, Terry McAuliffe pledged that Jeb Bush, the president's own brother, would be defeated in his re-election bid. In fact, the DNC made the Florida governor's race their number one priority of the 2002 election cycle. Moreover, only two years removed from the spectacle of 2000, emotions and energy should have been be running extremely high among Democrats. Did we see massive Democratic turnout? Did Terry's threats come true, for once? Nope! What transpired was not a humiliating GOP defeat, but a Bush-brother victory by a count that exceeded Jeb's first election margin. He won by an amazing 13 points! It was a complete and utter repudiation of the revenge factor and clearly showed the strength of the GOP in that state. Without Florida as an obvious pickup target, the Democrats' options to gain ground shrink considerably.

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President Bush has gained a small yet concrete advantage heading into the elections this year. Red states in 2000 netted Bush 271 electoral votes. This year those same states would give him 278. In other words, he could lose a state like New Hampshire, Nevada or West Virginia and win anyway. Even losing a larger state such as Louisiana or Colorado would produce a 269-269 tie.

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Despite his forays into fiscal liberalism - Medicare, immigration, education - the President maintains phenomenal support among Republicans. A poll in late January by the American Research Group found only 10% of GOPers disapprove of the job he is doing. Eighty-six percent approve. In addition, the vocal displeasure at his aforementioned transgressions has apparently not fallen on deaf ears. Recently he has offered peace offerings to the GOP faithful, such as a spending freeze on non-defense spending. Finally, his rock-solid conservative stands on abortion, judicial appointments, taxes, gay marriage, and National Security are sure to bring out a sizeable elephant stampede in November.

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Can we trust a privileged businessman who has served but 6 years in elected office to handle the affairs of the most powerful nation on earth? In 2000, voters put their faith in an untested George W Bush. Four years later, his courageous, principled, and steadfast leadership have led this country through some of its most trying times. Even those who dislike and disagree with President Bush would be hard-pressed to deny the resolve of his leadership. He provided and continues to provide a steady hand when we need it most. Voters will feel eminently more confident to put their trust in him again this year.

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Florida and New Hampshire were the two states that Ralph Nader's candidacy lost for Al Gore. I've already addressed the current situation in Florida. New Hampshires is not much different. Voters there have now elected two Republican senators, a Republican governor, and two Republican representatives. The GOP has a 3 to 1 advantage in the state senate and better than a 2 to 1 advantage in the state house. A Democratic victory here will be quite a feat, indeed.

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Pew research conducted a nationwide poll last summer to measure changes in party affiliation since the tragedy of September 11. Minnesota and Iowa have been trending Republican of late, and these shifts were quantified in that poll. They present yet another headache for McAuliffe's bunch. Now they have to row against the current in states that Al Gore won.

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California's fiscal health is the inevitable result of a steady diet of liberal policies. Last year, voters in this very blue state decided to switch chefs between meals. They settled on a Republican. In fact, over 60% of them voted for a GOP candidate. Does this mean 60% will vote for Bush? Not a chance. However, with this clear rejection of liberal economics and with the structural advantage that comes with control of the Governor's mansion, Republicans have a shot at competing for the biggest electoral prize in the nation. Regardless of the eventual winner, a competitive GOP in California would require Democrats to funnel precious resources to protect their most valuable bastion.

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Since Florida and New Hampshire are no longer the targets they once were for the DNC, Ohio becomes the challenge of choice. On the surface, Bush's narrow victory there in 2000 would give Democrats hope of taking it from the GOP in 2004. However, the political winds are blowing in the GOP's favor this year. Ohio's recent passage of a ban on gay marriage highlights their socially conservative lean. The impending battle in the gay marriage debate will solidify and motivate social conservatives in this crucial state, resulting in a more difficult obstacle for the Democrats to overcome.

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Former Vermont governor Howard Dean has been a veritable political highlight reel. Never before in my memory has a candidate followed a path similar to the one of this eccentric politician. In the race for the Democratic nomination, it has been thoroughly entertaining to see this man so flamboyantly hurtle himself to the front of the pack only to relegate himself to also-ran status through clumsy mis-steps and childish outbursts, all in a period of a few months. But, even though he's finished as a viable choice, his candidacy will have far-reaching effects on the election in November. What Dean did was to identify and add fuel to a smoldering fire within a segment of the Democratic party. These liberal Bush-haters haven't broken their engagement with him. They understand that he "feels their anger" - the same anger that will now compel them vote for a third party candidate rather than betray their man by voting for the victorious Democratic foe. This group won't be huge, but it will be enough to give Bush another advantage.

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I had to add this one. Bush has made a career out of having his opponents "misunderestimate" him. They show no signs of realizing that they really aren't dealing with a moron. How many more times will the Democrats ponder, "How did he do that?"

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As I've mentioned above, national security will be paramount in voters' minds this election season. After Bush, no one personifies the triumph of American resolve in the aftermath of September 11 more than Rudy Giuliani. In the time since, he has shown himself to be a willing advocate for Bush and other Republicans on the campaign trail. His active presence can only help Bush's standing in November.

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An issue that, if used wisely, can be very effective in wooing conservatives and moderates alike, is the heavy-handed, partisan tactics of Democratic senators. Never before have a president's judicial nominees been subjected to filibusters with the reckless abandon employed by this group of liberal lawmakers. Democrats have charted virgin territory in their quest to stall Bush's vision for a balanced, non-activist federal judiciary. The GOP has an opportunity to wield this obstructionist track record to attract more moderate voters and win a larger portion of the hispanic vote - read this.

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I'm sure there are more reasons for optimism. I'm also sure my counterparts on the left could come up with their own list of reasons for them to be hopeful. But the point has been made: President Bush is going to be one tough hombre to dislodge from that thar White House. When you Bushies out there are discouraged by the spin and disappointed by the polls, just read this list again and stop your fretting. But don't stop donating and volunteering. That will play a most critical part in making this view become a reality. He is certainly not assured of re-election, but, with our continued support and hard work, all signs point to a second term for George W. Bush, the 43rd President of the United States.

Ultimately, the government has every right to regulate a business. A corporate entity, while founded by entreprenuers, is a creation of the State and subject to it's regulations.

The point of reasonable regulation of corporations was passed a LONG time ago.

In reaction to this, corporations have sought to do more of their business offshore.

Your "solution" to this is to create even more regulation.

It's akin to treating anemia by bleeding the patient.

Well, I imagine comments like yours make the libs squeal with delight. A little infighting and your version of the "proper" punishment and we'll all suffer. I'll admire your great backbone while I watch our world collapse around us, more babies will die and our boys overseas will be in greater danger but WOW is Your backbone HUGE!!!!

I lack neither principals nor back bone. What you lack is common political sense! Besides I like Bush, thats why I stand against you and others that bash him and behave no different than the liberals. It takes more backbone to state a unpopular opinion on a site you SIC (Single Issue Conservatives) feel you own! If you think back bone is sitting on your hands with your thumbs god knows where so be it. I am in the military, I have a vested interest in supporting this President, not so much my safety, but that of my shipmates. They need strong leadership, something you obviously wouldn't know if it kicked you in the tail.

My husband was laid off two weeks ago. They can pay a younger worker less money to do the same work. It sucks, but who do I blame? Younger workers?? I have never had this union mentality that a job was ours for life no matter what, that is not the way the world works anymore, nor should it. We all depend on the success of big bad corporate America. Their profits fuel our 401ks and mutual funds.

My government has made some decisions that have disappointed me, but they have made some that have thrilled me. Much like my husband, whom I love very much, I don't always agree with, we work together to be happy more often than not. I would rather work within the party for change, knowing I have the inside track, than scream in vain at Democrats who WILL NEVER LISTEN TO ME!

#9 (Republican's Get Out The Vote is an interesting point and I think it is key to countering the Democrats who have beat Republican's at this game for many years.

Rush had read an article that quoted some insider saying that the Bush campaign was the most organized election campaign he had ever seen. They already have buses and vans rented to take voter to the polls.

I read that the defeat of GH Bush was harder on GWB than his dad. Bush is not going to leave anything to chance.

Also, there are 8 1/2 months to find Osama and to locate the WMDs in Syria.

In the meantime, the photos of JF Kerrey with Jane Fonda do a lot to damage any image he is trying to portray of being an experienced war vetran.

Terry Macawful got one thing right, the Republican's savaged Max Cleland a decorated war hero who lost limbs in the Vietnam war. I think there was justice in this campaign because of Cleland's stand on Homeland Security. You can oppose the President on principles, but because you want help government unions, which was Cleland's argument for not supporting the HLS bill meant he deserved a beating.

We got a long way to go and $200 million dollars. If we need more there is always Thorton Mellon Scaife.Why not, the Dem's have Soros!

Re: 1. Just four days before the election, muckrakers uncovered a dirty little secret on their GOP rival. Twenty-four years earlier, George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving.

A funny aside, Where was Laura and George when that story broke ?

"Brewtown USA" Milwaukee Wisconsin.

I, for one, am convinced that this diclosure actually *got* him votes here in WI. :))

"... When asked if convicted of such of an offense, he answered truthfully: "no" -- because the charge did not exist."

If he was asked if he was ever 'arrested' however, he should have said 'Yes'. I think that's the point here.

Even if a policeman detains you for a moment at the scene of a traffic accident to ask you if you saw the crash, that's 'arrest'.

Bump for later read.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

Another reason (haven't read the thread so apologies if someone else has mentioned it) is Republican inroads among Jewish voters.

W's strong support of Israel and the war on Islamic terrorists has caused Ed Koch to announce he will support
W.

Other major Jewish Dem leaders (I don't rule out Lieberman) may announce for W.

W will not win NY but a swing in South Florida could be a big factor.

You have a 50/50 chance of being right, tough prediction. Why won't he be reelected?

Jobs, jobs, jobs!

I mean, the very fact that in February 2004, we are still debating Unemployment [payroll data vs. household survey] means that the incumbent in in trouble!

Plus, many of those other factors, like 'gay marriage' the President has no control over Judiciary silliness.

And, thank you for deposing Saddam, causing Qadaffi to cave, rolling up the Pakistani Nuclear Proliferation Club...but, is MY job going to India???

In other words, "What Have You Done For Me LATELY???

It's akin to treating anemia by bleeding the patient.

More like giving transfusions to a patient that you accidentally bled too much out of - rather than sitting back and saying "Oh look, I've intervened too much; I'm not going to make it worse by intervening further", while the patient bleeds to death.

Get a new job, I did. We are only debating unemployment because of all the weenies on this site complaining. Unemployment is 5.6 %, the Average for the 90's was 5.8%. This race is about who gets control of the hearts and minds of Americans, are we a liberal country or conservative, or balanced. The rest is a bunch of red herrings.

"Besides I like Bush, thats why I stand against you and others that bash him and behave no different than the liberals. It takes more backbone to state a unpopular opinion on a site you SIC (Single Issue Conservatives) feel you own!"

Stating the facts is not bashing, nor is it behaving like a liberal.

Your statements here (a very pro-Bush site) require no backbone or principles, which is good, since I feel you probably lack both. You are in the military, which is why you support Bush. It sounds like you are the SIC.

I and others who criticize Bush for his stances on the second amendment, immigration, and the expansion of the welfare state are hardly "single issue" voters. We have legitimate concerns about where this country and the Republican party is heading.

Strong leadership involves making tough decisions, and defying the popular will if the popular will would result in policies that would not be good for the country. This is what I and others think Bush lacks. Promoting illegal immigration through promises of amnesty (probably because he thinks it will win him more votes) is not leadership. Knowingly signing unconstitutional legislation (the campaign finance reform bill) is not leadership. Expanding the scope of government to pander to seniors is not leadership. I suggest that it is you who would not know strong leadership if it kicked you in the tail.

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