By Stefano Ambrogi
LONDON (Reuters) - The global maritime industry, already plagued by organized crime, is increasingly vulnerable to seaborne attack by al Qaeda guerrillas, security experts said Wednesday.
"We believe al Qaeda and its associates may be planning a maritime 'spectacular'," said Dominick Donald, a senior analyst with Aegis Defense Services, a leading London-based risk and security consultancy.
"We think there are enough indications now that al Qaeda would like to do this, is thinking hard about it, and is probably beginning to prepare for it," said Donald, speaking at an oil and transport security conference in London.
He said oil and gas tankers and cruise ships were prime targets for al Qaeda -- blamed for the September 11 attacks -- because of their respective economic and "iconic" importance.
Donald acknowledged the threat was not new but said it was growing more acute as militant Islamist groups became more adept at sharing information on how to carry out seaborne attacks.
"There is no doubt about it: the industry is vulnerable and more attention is focused on it as a likely target," said Chris Austen, formerly a counter-terrorism specialist with Britain's Royal Navy and now managing director of Maritime Underwater Security Consultants.
Citing a surge in piracy attacks and ocean crime, he said the building blocks for an attack were already in place, particularly in little-patrolled waters around the Horn of Africa and in Southeast Asia.
"Terrorism is imitative; it learns from other terrorists, and from organized crime. If organized criminals are using the maritime environment, terrorists will follow," he said.
The International Maritime Bureau (IMB), the world's top ocean crime watchdog, said last month that piracy attacks jumped 20 percent in 2003 to 445.
Violent crime also jumped with 21 seafarers killed, 88 injured and 71 crew or passengers listed as missing.
The IMB has said it has not found any evidence linking militant groups to acts of piracy and ocean crime but said the growing lawlessness could help militant groups to gain a foothold.
Donald said militant groups could learn how to use a merchant ship as a delivery vessel for a "dirty bomb" by interrogating kidnapped mariners.
"Piracy is the perfect mask for maritime terrorism," he said.