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Picture Wing rolled almost 90 INTO lead, after starting a left push. Port Stab could be below Lead's Starboard wing, while the Starboard stab is still above. In Eschelon, Wing would be slightly below Lead for just that reason; safe separation.

OK, I'm picturing Lead flying straight and level, and Wing to his Starbord, and rolled 90 degrees left. I'm picturing Lead slightly behind Wing and decelerating. I'm picturing Wing's Starbord Vertical Stabalizer touching Lead's Starbord wingtip. The only way I can picture Lead's Starbord wingtip touching Wing's Starbord vertical stab is to have the trailing edge of Lead's wing strike the leading edge of Wing's starbord vertical stab, and nothing else.

Now I'm trying to picture what happens to Wing's aircraft in the next milisecond. Rolled 90 degrees left, his aircraft turns into Lead, and somebody's radome is going to need a new paint job.

OK, now picture this: The original story never said that the accident occured during formation flight. It occured while the two aircraft were performing "daytime fighter maneuvers" which means two guys having fun on a nice clear day. When two aircraft perform dogfight training, one will break formation and the fight starts with the two aircraft closing on each other (Tally ho!) Now, these two gentlemen are head to head, and each one is going to make sure that the other one breaks first. Wing ends up crossing to the left and just below Lead, but misjudges his altitude slightly and his starbord vertical stab strikes Lead's right wingtip. The impact is severe enough that it shears off the Vertical Stab, and damages the wingtip.

I guess we'll have to wait for the official accident report.

I'm assuming a formation bump, because anything else would have very likely resulted in their deaths. I wish I could draw it for you, but Lead is OUT FRONT, slowing. Wing catches the decel too late to react. Being almost under Lead and diving, he rolls left while pushing. Wings were certainly in sweep, or the starboard wing would have come off at the pivot point.

Either way, just glad they are alive.

When two aircraft perform dogfight training, one will break formation and the fight starts with the two aircraft closing on each other (Tally ho!)

Actually Yo, A 'Tally' only means visual contact. A 'fights-on call is what will start the ACM. In a 1v1 fight, head on starts are not always typical. In training, varying-aspect attacks and defenses are practiced. One never knows whether contact will appear in front or behind. There is an enemy doctrine that actually begins with NOE flying under the bogey with a pull up into an rear attack while first shot comes in the vertical before a tally is possible.

My point is that during 1v1 ACM, rarely is their a moment when one or the other pilot is not pulling into, or rolling around the lift vector of the other plane. Doubtful either pilot would lose SA during ACM to the point of running into each other.