Bush brain trust not shaken by Kerry's numbers ["Dated Dean. Married Kerry...woke up with Bush."]

Star Tribune ^ | 2.1.04 | Star Tribune

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Bush brain trust not shaken by Kerry's numbers

Eric Black and Bob von Sternberg, Star Tribune

Published February 1, 2004 POLB01

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's ascendancy doesn't exactly have President Bush's brain trust quaking in their boots -- not publicly, at least.

The latest memo from Matt Dowd, Bush-Cheney '04 chief strategist, "Political Perspective Post-New Hampshire," went out to party leaders Thursday. ABC News obtained these excerpts:

"When you compare where public opinion polls had John Kerry last April with where he was on election night, the numbers are nearly identical. Kerry was polling at 35% or 36% last April. Then the Dean 'outsider' candidacy emerged, floundered, and recovered a bit, but Kerry ended up exactly where he started. There was no expansion in enthusiasm. The Democrats merely returned to the safe, old, standby. Kerry fills the role of a traditional Democratic choice after the thrill of the Dean candidacy wore off."

Dowd also cautioned against the boost in polls that the Democratic nominee will probably see over the coming weeks. "This is something we have long expected, and when the nominee is nearly secure for the Democrats, they will (as Kerry has already) get a tremendous amount of positive press coverage nationally."

Where's youth vote?

So much for Howard Dean's children's crusade.

The exit poll conducted during Tuesday's New Hampshire primary showed that his much-vaunted wooing of young and/or first-time voters wasn't all it was cracked up to be.

He attracted 34 percent of voters ages 18 to 29, statistically no different from the 33 percent won by Kerry. And those voters represented only 14 percent of the total electorate.

First-time primary voters, who represented 16 percent of the electorate, actually favored Kerry, who got 35 percent of their vote. Dean came in second, with 29 percent.

Cutting to the chase

From the morning-after New Hampshire piece by Ron Brownstein, a Los Angeles Times political reporter/analyst: "The big question for Dean is whether his second-place finish represents the first step on the road back into contention or just a temporary stay of execution."

From syndicated columnist Robert Novak: The "presidential nomination is really Kerry's to lose. That means this experienced politician has to make the kind of blunders committed by the less experienced Dean and the wholly inexperienced Clark in order to lose the nomination."

Spotted midweek on the Dean campaign's Weblog:

"Dated Dean. Married Kerry . . . woke up with Bush."

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ping.