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Medicare and Deficit Estimates Revised Upward
Fox News ^ | 1/29/04

Posted on 01/29/2004 4:06:48 PM PST by billbears

WASHINGTON — President Bush's 2005 budget proposal estimates that his Medicare bill will cost one-third more than the $400 billion the White House promised, and predicts the largest deficit ever in dollar terms, congressional aides said Thursday.

Bush will send the budget for the 2005 fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1, 2004, to Congress on Monday, barely a week after wrapping up the 2004 budget fight.

The president now estimates that the just-enacted prescription-drug program and Medicare overhaul will cost about $540 billion, and that this year's budget deficit will be about $520 billion, congressional sources told The Associated Press.

That deficit figure would easily surpass the $375 billion shortfall of last year. The new estimates come as Bush braces for a difficult election-season fight with Congress over his spending, which has angered budget watchdogs, including some conservatives.

Six of this year's 10 domestic spending bills cost more than Bush proposed, according to House Appropriations Committee figures. The conservative Citizens Against Government Waste (search) estimates all 13 bills had more than 10,000 "earmarks" for congressmen's home-district projects.

"This administration has been unwilling to fight those battles," said Steve Ellis, vice president of the conservative Taxpayers for Common Sense (search).

As the Medicare measure, which Bush signed last month, was moving through Congress, the president, White House officials and congressional Republican leaders had assured doubting conservatives that the bill's costs would stay within the $400 billion estimate.

The new Medicare estimate comes from the Medicare actuaries, and is a figure the president is compelled to include in his budget estimates. However, in Bush's stump speeches around the country, he has stressed that the real costs of Medicare may drop as additional prescription drugs could prevent some more costly medical procedures.

Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office, Congress' nonpartisan fiscal analyst, estimated the bill's 10-year cost at $395 billion.

Some conservatives voted against the legislation anyway. Many are now angry that Bush has presided over excessive increases in spending and budget deficits.

"I'm not the least bit surprised," said Rep. John Shadegg (search), R-Ariz., who voted against the Medicare bill and said he had heard the cost estimate would rise. "Historically, our estimates of what these programs will cost have been so far off as to be meaningless."

An administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the estimate would rise to nearly $540 billion.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 540billion; medicare; socialism
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To: azhenfud
And that is exactly why they are using the worst case scenario in the budgeting process.

Look, if Bush gets reelected, he will attempt to reform SS. I will predict two things. First, there is going to be a whole lot of squealing at FR and second, this medicare prescription issue will be swallowed up in those reforms.

41 posted on 01/29/2004 7:01:14 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: Ben Ficklin
"Look, if Bush gets reelected, he will attempt to reform SS."

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's already committed to putting a Mexican tap on SSI, he's said an "undocumented" can stay here for 3 yrs, that one can bring five, of that six, two have two "anchor babies" each before the three years are up, that six multiplied over the 8-12 million already here will have a minimum one hundred forty-four million souls on SSI.

Yeah, Bush is planning a MAJOR overhaul of the SSI program - he's planning on it being hauled over the border.

I'd propose the "undocumented" be able to "contribute" to and draw from the Lawmakers' nifty retirement funds - if it's such a fantastic idea.

42 posted on 01/29/2004 7:18:35 PM PST by azhenfud ("He who is always looking up seldom finds others' lost change...")
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To: azhenfud
".......There's a high probability that entitlement programs in 20 years will be financed by hispanics and will serve the whites".
43 posted on 01/29/2004 7:36:06 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: azhenfud
We have one now saying, "for our children, and our children's children."

I would consider that taxation without representation.

44 posted on 01/29/2004 7:50:28 PM PST by 4CJ (||) Support free speech and stop CFR - visit www.ArmorforCongress.com (||)
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To: Ben Ficklin
".......There's a high probability that entitlement programs in 20 years will be financed by hispanics and will serve the whites".

From your article, there's an even higher probability that there won't be any entitlement programs in 20 years to be financed by anyone. Certainly not if the "Bush for Illegaliens" plan succeeds.

Take only half the 144 million I had previously stated being provided public assistance of a meager $8-10 thousand per four annually, that's a potential $114-180 billion annually. The current estimates place them sponging about $40 billion annually from taxpayers already. Can we afford 3-5 times the current cost of their upkeep? Are their contributions to America THAT valuable?

45 posted on 01/29/2004 8:06:36 PM PST by azhenfud ("He who is always looking up seldom finds others' lost change...")
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To: azhenfud
Let me give the "other side of the sword" in demographics.

There are published projections that by 2016 there will be no more Mexicans available to the US. It would be difficult for me to accept that 2016 date as absolute, but I would suspect that that there is an actual date when this will happen that would not be far off from the 2016 date.

The Mexican birth rate has fallen by 2/3 in the last 20 years. Economic opputunities will expand in Mexico.

Given that there is some point in the future when mexicans will decline the oppurtunity to relocate to the US, it would logically follow that there is also a point further in the future when mexicans in the US will begin to return to Mexico.

If you think that having too many mexicans in the US is a problem, just wait until there are not enough mexicans in the US.

46 posted on 01/29/2004 8:37:12 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: Ben Ficklin; azhenfud
The cost of this program, over the years, has been estimated in numerous ways and it is safe to say that no one knows for sure exactly what it will cost

Oh, they do, they just don't want to tell anyone for fear of not getting another big government program through. I have to hand it to the Republicans. They're enacting legislation that would put their 'all government, all the time' ancestors to shame

From $770 million in 1966, federal Medicaid expenditures increased to $2.7 billion (1970), $6.8 billion (1975), $14 billion (1980), $22.7 billion (1985), $41.1 billion (1990), and an estimated $89.2 billion in 1995.

Here

From $770 million to $89 billion in less than 30 years? At that rate based on the original cost of this current boondoggle, this will be the bill that finally breaks the bank

47 posted on 01/29/2004 8:56:22 PM PST by billbears (Deo Vindice.)
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To: Ben Ficklin
"The Mexican birth rate has fallen by 2/3 in the last 20 years. Economic opputunities will expand in Mexico."

Well, it dangblasted ought to. The "2/3"rd birth rate is made up in those Illegaliens that are here; those economic opportunities are the results from those jobs manufacturers took away from here.

48 posted on 01/30/2004 3:44:13 AM PST by azhenfud ("He who is always looking up seldom finds others' lost change...")
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To: Maigrey
You must have missed my question to you, so I'll ask again....

"How could the administration make such a large error in the cost of the Medicare bill? What would you have said had the Clinton administration made such a large error?"

Thanks.

49 posted on 01/31/2004 4:28:34 AM PST by RJCogburn ("That's you, Cheney. You lost the horse.".....Lucky Ned Pepper.)
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To: RJCogburn
"How could the administration make such a large error in the cost of the Medicare bill?

Look HERE.

50 posted on 01/31/2004 4:34:31 AM PST by sarcasm (Tancredo 2004)
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To: sarcasm
I can't help but feel totally and entirely betrayed by this President on the big domestic issues that make a huge difference. Little things that others point out on this board are little crumbs on the table that do not help to turn the tide. W has shown himself to be liberal in RINO clothing with no intentions whatsoever to improve the status quo. This immigration thing for me really was lynch pin. The Medicare program is just as bad, as waste fraud and abuse are already rampant and out on control.
51 posted on 01/31/2004 4:44:39 AM PST by chris1
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To: sarcasm
Wow. Thanks.

So the answer is...they lied.

The article is worth posting.
52 posted on 01/31/2004 4:57:44 AM PST by RJCogburn ("That's you, Cheney. You lost the horse.".....Lucky Ned Pepper.)
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To: RJCogburn
Go ahead.
53 posted on 01/31/2004 5:01:08 AM PST by sarcasm (Tancredo 2004)
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