IRAQ MINISTER SAYS SADDAM WMD CAREFULLY HIDDEN

Reuters ^ | 1/29/04

[Atlantic Friend]

Maybe I'm trying to put more sense in Saddam's head that there ever was. After some years of absolute power, most dictators usually lose any sense of reality, and so maybe he was really believing the tide would turn and bring him back to power.

Well, in that case he's loonier than the screwy squirrel. I doubt anybody would have welcomed his going back to power when the US Army had toppled him.

[cookcounty]

"To have a very active program, there are way too many people who know things. "

Sorta persuasive, except for the fact that a lot of this stuff is physically very small. Many people might know "some kind of research was going on" but how many people would be "in on" where a few barrles of stuff was hidden? And Saddam would not be above a little "pre-emption" of his own, offing inconvenient witnesses. It's the way he did business for 25 years.

[Coop]

I agree 100%. The Intel failure on Iraq certainly didn't start with Bush. It started with Clinton and Bush inherited the mess. Now it's time to recognize, at least on some basis that failure occurred and start to remedy the situation.

I see you conveniently skip over all the intel successes - including the few I highlighted above - and still insist this entire thing is a huge intel failure.

Your approach tells me a lot about you.

[HankReardon]

It is a historical fact the Saddam's Iraqi military used WMD's against Iran in the 80's and the Kurds. The question of whether Iraq EVER had WMD's is not still hanging. What are you saying?

[LS]

You know, this is getting ridiculous:

The Japanese today said Kay is wrong, and that Iraq had WMDs;

The Iraqis say Saddam had WMDs.

I haven't seen a recent statement, but I'm pretty sure the Israelis said Saddam had WMDs;

The British still say they exist.

When you add to all this that we have found EXTENSIVE connections between Iraq and AQ, and yet the administration seems to be, if not retreating, not attacking on these issues . . . well, all I can conclude is that it is part of a larger strategy. For the life of me, I don't know what it is unless the "October surprise" strategy is indeed in play.

[Coop]

I doubt anybody would have welcomed his going back to power when the US Army had toppled him.

Many of the Ba'athists who lived lives of luxury would have. And it really isn't a question of welcoming. If you resist him regaining power, you and your family die.

No doubt he's an evil nutcase. He's burned his own oil wells, killed thousands upon thousands of his own people via execution and three wars, and dumped oil into the Persian Gulf his own country borders.

[Solson]

Specific to the subject of this post, namely WMD in Iraq, this was an intelligence failure. The war and the subsequent intelligence has been fantastic. However, in the lead up to this war, the intelligence was a failure. Tenet admittedly had no one on the ground in Iraq, relied too heavily on UN inspectors and towards the end, had to rely upon spy satellites, intercepts, and Iraqi-exile information.

This war, whether we like it or not, was predicated, to a larger degree, on WMD. Had we known before the war that WMD stockpiles no longer existed but the programs were in place for the rapid and prolific production of WMD, we could have framed the argument in that light.

I know this is all so much easier from the view of the Monday Morning Quarterback. But, unless we start to acknowledge, at least in some part, that there was an intelligence failure here, our stance, our reasoning, and the fact that this was was necessary, good, and the RIGHT thing to do will be lost.

Acknowledge that there was a failure in intelligence (to what extent we do not know right now) and start to move forward. That's all.

[LS]

Fine. Explain to me then why virtually EVERY intelligence service in the world agrees that he had them as late as 2000: Britain, Australia, JAPAN (today), Israel, Russia, China, and so on. Every one.

Now, I could see him fooling one intel service. Maybe two. But not all of them. That's a little too tough.

[ozdragon]

I remmember when our troops were racing to Bagdhad a Marine unit came across an abandoned ammo depot. Inside they found artilary shells line-up with the top offapparently waiting to accept Bio-Chem components. The facility had Bio=CDhem suits and reporaitors nearby.

Later when other units crossed they Tigeris River they took water samples and found intermittent amounts of ricin and other toxins in the water. Apparently someone was dumping this stuff up river.

These two reports were coverd on television, but I don't remember which channel.

Assuming these reports are true it is reasaonable to believe that 1) the Iraqi army believed that Bio-Chem weapons existed and 2) that at least some of the taxins did exist in Iraq.

[Atlantic Friend]

He hides them ? Well, yes, maybe. In that case they'll turn up, sooner or later. Time will tell - or, more precisely, one officer in the know will spill his guts.

He sends them to another country and stays behind ? No, really, I can't buy that. Saddam is certainly no hero, nor does he has such love for Syria (who by the way fielded troops against him in 1991) to the point where he gives them WMDs and gets nothing in return, not even a safe haven.

So, I'll stick to this : if there ware WMDs, they weren't spirited out of Iraq on Saddam's orders. It COULD be Saddam was double-crossed on the deal, his trusted aides deciding they would buy their OWN lives with the WMDs, though.

[HankReardon]

"I am Saddam Hussein, the President of Iraq and I am willing to negotiate!" December 13th, 2003, Saddam yelling help from a hole in the ground.

[Physicist]

Had we known before the war that WMD stockpiles no longer existed

How do we know that now?

[cookcounty]

" Very dangerous to use chemical or biological weapons, the wind has to be blowing the right direction, cannot shift back on your own troops. Many factors to consider. "

In WWI, gas "blowback" was a major problem. A lot of guys died in those trenches from their own mustard.

Once they got protective gear, it was much less dangerous.

Makes a very effective terror weapon, though.

[plain talk]

It's not just the lefties. It's some Freepers also. Clueless

The root cause may be lack of analytical reasoning skills and jumping to conclusions without considering all of the alternatives. It's not so much a smart vs dumb thing, it's more of a deep vs shallow thing.

[Solson]

Based upon the evidence we have right now.

[FBD]

There may not have been large quantities of WMD's, and the scientists may have been bluffing Saddam. But David Kay (in his interview) confirms evidence of active programs going on, right up to the war.

There is a very good reason for anyone who was involved in WMD's to stay mum, if they know anything:

It's called war crimes. The folks that had anything to do with bio/chem agents could well be looking at a death penalty sentence, for the massacre of 20,000 Kurds at Halabja.

[Coop]

But how do you figure there was an intel failure?

They said Iraq had reconstituted (post 1998) WMD programs. Proven.

They said Iraq had active WMD scientists. Identified and documented.

They have released intercepts of Iraqi commanders moving/hiding forbidden material from inspectors. Backed up satellite imagery and regime's history.

They said Iraq had WMD-capable facilities. Identified and located.

They said Iraq had WMDs in certain areas. Not proven. But intel is perishable. And there is plenty of other supporting evidence available to back up those assertions.

The only people who view this as a failure, honestly, are those who misunderstand what's involved with intelligence. And yes, I'm including Dem and Pubbie politicians in that crowd.

[HankReardon]

When asked by members of the Iraqi Governing Counsel why didn't he fight back when he was captured, he had a gun. Saddam gestured toward some of our well trained, well equipped warriors present there and said, "Would you have fought against them?"

[areafiftyone]

I hope there is an October surprise in play. I hope it also involves Bin Laden. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[petercooper]

Agree there needs to be some housecleaning at State and CIA