Posted on 01/28/2004 4:53:29 PM PST by NYC Republican
There is no question that Kerry's solid win last night thoroughly establishes him as the front runner. Unlike Iowa, the polls were pretty dead on with the final results. Our final RCP poll average was Kerry 35.6%, Dean 24.2%, Edwards 12.4%, Clark 10.6% and Lieberman 7.4% with 7.2% undecided. If you allocate the undecideds proportional to their final poll averages Kerry ends up at 38.2%, Dean 25.9%, Edwards 13.3%, Clark 11.4% and Lieberman 7.9%. Except for a Clark/Edward's flip-flop, that is more or less exactly how it turned out. (Final Results: Kerry 38.5%, Dean 26.3%, Clark 12.4%, Edwards 12.1%, Lieberman 8.6%.)
I was surprised that Dean couldn't close to within single digits and I was also surprised that Edwards didn't fare better than his 12%, fourth place finish. Of all the pundit scuttlebutt that I heard on the four cable networks (FOX, CNN, MSNBC and CNBC) the two most interesting points I thought were comments by Fred Barnes and Bill Bennett, both on FOX. Barnes suggested that a 1976 Ford-Reagan campaign might develop, where Reagan lost Iowa and New Hampshire and then went on to win in North Carolina and many of the later states only to lose at the very end at the convention.
With Dean's ability to raise money outside of the normal political system and his antagonism towards the Democratic establishment this type of scenario is not out of the question. To buttress this point, Brit Hume asked Dean about DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe's comment that if you haven't won at some stage you might want to think of dropping out. Dean rather defiantly told Terry where he could shove his drop out suggestion, reminding people that McAuliffe made a point of staying "neutral" a month ago when Dean asked him step in and tone down some of the attacks that were flying in Dean's direction. I don't know that Dean or his campaign is going to be in any mood to "unify" around a lifelong Washington pol like Senator John Kerry.
Bennett's comment, which I had read somewhere earlier in the week, was that since 1952 every candidate who has won Iowa and New Hampshire has gone on to win their parties nomination. Bennett suggested that if you were in the World Series of Poker Kerry would have a 90% chance of ending up with the nomination. On Sunday, I had rated Kerry as 60% likely to win the nomination and with last night's win I'd raise that to at least 75%, so Bennett's 90% comment is probably not that far from where we are today.
For this to turn into a real race, at some point, some one besides Kerry is going to have win somewhere. Next Tuesday, seven states hold primaries (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina) and if Kerry wins all seven, this race will be over. Our RCP poll average in South Carolina shows Kerry trailing Edwards by roughly 11 points, while he may get a decent bounce from his New Hampshire win, Kerry might not play as well down South as he did in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If the other candidates are smart - and by that I mean Dean, Edwards and Clark (Lieberman is history) - they will divvy up those seven states and make Kerry spread his resources, while they pick and choose their spots.
Kerry has had a good run and a lot of good press, and the time compression of the campaign is working as a powerful tail wind in his quest for the nomination. But there is no question that his turn in the media hot seat is fast approaching.
If Edwards can win South Carolina, Clark can win Oklahoma and Dean can pick up a win somewhere else, Michigan and Washington follow rather quickly on Feb 7, both states where Dean might have a real shot.
Kerry's in control and he can go for the knockout punch next week, but Dean's not going away, and Kerry may have a bigger problem in the South and the West than we think. Let's see how well Kerry weathers the inevitable media scrutiny fast approaching his campaign
By doing so, he insults every intelligent American, but not those who support him.
Forget wins. DELEGATES! Kerry will get delegates in all 7 states, the only candidate who can be sure of that. And even if the others win 3 states, they're splitting it up and not strong enough individually to challenge Ketchup.
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