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Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative
The Field Institute (PDF via Google HTML) ^ | January 1995

Posted on 01/28/2004 11:57:41 AM PST by Sabertooth

Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative


Proposition 187, the controversial ballot initiative which makes illegal immigrants ineligible to receive public health and education services, was approved by voters by an 18- point margin, 59% to 41%. An analysis of the vote by regional and demographic subgroups shows the following:


    The proposition carried all regions of the state except the Bay Area (where it trailed by 10 points). Support for Prop. 187 was extremely strong in the Inland Empire (+40 points), the North Coast/Sierras (+36 points), San Diego/ Orange (+34 points) and the Central Valley (+32 points).


    The vote on Prop. 187 was highly partisan, with Republicans favoring it three to one, and Democrats opposed three to two. Independents favored the initiative by 22 points.


    Political ideology was strongly linked to opinions of the initiative. Conservatives were strongly supportive, favor- ing Prop. 187 by 52 points. By contrast, liberals opposed the initiative by 36 points. Political moderates were more divided, but favored it by 12 points.


    Support for Prop. 187 was strongest among white non- Hispanic voters (+28 points), and especially white males (+38 points). Latinos, on the other hand, voted No by a 73% to 27% margin. Blacks and Asians divided about evenly, with 52% voting in favor and 48% opposed.


    The initiative carried among both male and female voters, although men supported it by a larger margin -- 24 points -- versus 12 points among women.


    Voters age 60 or older were strongly supportive of the initiative, favoring it by 32 points, while younger voters under age 30 split about evenly on the measure. Majorities of voters age 30 - 59 supported the initiative.


    Voters with no more than a high school education and those with some college training favored Prop. 187 by wide 28- point margins. College graduates were also supportive, but by a narrower 8-point margin, whereas those with a post- graduate degree were opposed by 4 points.


    Majorities of voters in all income categories supported the initiative.


    Protestants favored Prop. 187 by a greater than two to one margin (69% to 31%). On the other hand, Catholics voted against it by a narrow 2-point margin, Jewish voters op- posed it by 10 points and those with no religious preference voted No by a 4-point margin.


    The Los Angeles Times exit poll also asked voters whether they were a first generation, second generation or third or more generation U.S. resident. The results show that voters who have resided in the U.S. for three or more generations were more supportive than those who have been here for a shorter period.

Table 6
Voter Preferences on Proposition 187,
the Illegal Alien Initiative

Yes

No

Statewide Total

59%

41%


Region

 (.24) Los Angeles County

56%

44%

 (.23) San Francisco Bay Area

45%

55%

 (.17) San Diego/Orange

67%

33%

 (.15) Central Valley

66%

34%

 (.08) Inland Empire

70%

30%

 (.07) Central Coast

60%

40%

 (.06) North Coast/Sierras

68%

32%


Party identification

 (.40) Democrat

40%

60%

 (.40) Republican

76%

24%

 (.20) Independent/other

61%

39%


Political ideology

 (.37) Conservative

76%

24%

 (.45) Moderate

56%

44%

 (.18) Liberal

32%

68%


Sex

 (.49) Male

62%

38%

 (.51) Female

56%

44%


Ethnicity

 (.78) White (non-Hispanic)

64%

36%

  (.38) Men

69%

31%

  (.40) Women

59%

41%

 (.09) Latino

27%

73%

 (.07) Black

52%

48%

 (.06) Asian

52%

48%

Yes

No


Age

 (.14) 18-29

49%

51%

 (.43) 30-49

58%

42%

 (.17) 50-59

59%

41%

 (.26) 60 or older

66%

34%


Education

 (.22) High school or less

64%

36%

 (.34) Some college

64%

36%

 (.27) College graduate

54%

46%

 (.17) Post graduate degree

48%

52%


Household income

 (.15) Under $20,000

53%

47%

 (.25) $20,000-$40,000

60%

40%

 (.24) $40,000-$60,000

59%

41%

 (.36) More than $60,000

58%

42%


Religion

 (.48) Protestant

69%

31%

 (.27) Roman Catholic

49%

51%

 (.05) Jewish

45%

55%

 (.08) Other

53%

47%

 (.12) No preference

48%

52%


U.S. residency status

 (.25) 1st or 2nd generation citizen

52%

48%

 (.75) 3rd generation or more

60%

40%

Source: Statewide and regional vote percentages are based on official vote totals reported by the Secretary of State. All other demographic subgroup percentages are the averages of two independent exit polls conducted by Voter News Service  (n=3,050) and the Los Angeles Times (n=5,336) on November 9, 1994.

This is an Excerpt from the Field Institute's larger 1994 election summary,
"A summary analysis of Voting in the 1994 General Election"
pdf link here

(Excerpt) Read more at 216.239.57.104 ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 187; aliens; illegalaliens; illegals; immigrantlist; proposition187
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To: Sabertooth
Thanks very much for the pings, and your homework.
21 posted on 01/28/2004 1:20:02 PM PST by Starwind (The Gospel of Jesus Christ is the only true good news)
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To: Baynative
Yet it only takes ONE LIBERAL JUDGE to over turn the will of six million people and negate the law they voted to inact.

Not factually correct.

Judge Judith Pfaelzer's decision was not only subject to review, but was in the process of being reviewed when the plug was pulled. Respected judicial scholars were unanimous in their opinion: Pfaelzer's order would have been substantially upheld by the 9th Circuit but would have been reversed and all but two provisions of the initiative would have been upheld by the SCOTUS. Those portions of the initiative that were felt to be constitutional by these same legal scholars are incorporated into the present initiative.

The decision to over turn the will of six million people was made by Gray Davis when he sent the pending appeal before the 9th Circuit to mediation within the 9th Circuit. Davis' decision was not subject to review

22 posted on 01/28/2004 3:08:37 PM PST by Amerigomag
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To: Sabertooth
I do believe People are really Pissed off and intend to let Mr. Bush know their feelings one way or another.
Bush is great on most things but on this issue he is dead wrong and he might just lose the next election over it.
Millions of Americans including me have worked hard all our lives paid TAXES and lived by the Rules,only to have Bush show us what a bunch of fools we are.
As far as Liberal Judges overriding the vote of the People, I believe the time for that is over, and it is time for those Judges to be put out of office one way or another.
If Bush can't control our Borders then it is time to bring ALL our troops home and take care of our Country first.
In this issue bush is to the left of the Leftist Democrats, kinda sad.
Great Post, Thanks
23 posted on 01/29/2004 7:16:46 AM PST by chatham
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To: Sabertooth
SUGGESTION FOR A POLITICAL GESTURE--

When you get your next request for a donation to Bush's presidential fund, take the envelope, PUT A STAMP ON IT, and insert the following message:

Please forward requests for donations to Vicente Fox

24 posted on 01/29/2004 7:25:53 AM PST by Mamzelle
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