The Jobless Recovery

Washington Post ^ | 1/27/04

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

...This is not the first jobless recovery. In 1991-92 the economy grew steadily, but job growth was almost nil. The reason for such recoveries, as a study by the New York Fed argues, is that the structure of the economy is changing faster than previously. In the 1970s and '80s, unemployment was roughly 50 percent "cyclical": Recessions drove firms to lay off workers and recoveries drove them to hire workers back into the same jobs. Now, by contrast, the "structural" component of unemployment accounts for most job losses: Technological and organizational shifts are driving firms to close jobs down permanently, and laid-off workers are having to look for entirely new work. That takes time. Firms have to create jobs they never had before, which takes longer than re-creating old ones. As a result, the new structural nature of unemployment means that job creation lags in the early stages of a recovery.

Mr. Bush should not be blamed for this, though his irresponsible fiscal policy harms business confidence and therefore job creation. But the bigger question is whether jobless recoveries are a bad thing. They are, after all, the flip side of good news. There is less cyclical unemployment these days, so recessions are milder; fewer jobs are being created now because fewer jobs were destroyed during the downturn. Moreover, a jobless recovery means, by definition, that each worker is producing more. Higher productivity, in turn, is the best promise possible of higher wages and employment in the future. Just look at the past decade: The jobless recovery of 1991-92 ushered in the longest economic expansion of the postwar period, which drove unemployment down to previously unheard-of levels, and fueled improvements in poverty, crime and other social indicators...

[Final Authority]

Doesn't really matter factually one way or the other for the purposes of determining the next Presidential election. It only matters for the three million or more families who have taken a cut in pay, had to lower their standard of living, no longer can afford to see the dentist, have poor or nonexistent health insurance that their perception is real and the effects of their perception is mirrored by the electorate in general. If the perception of a jobless recovery persists right through to the election I suspect we will see a change in President come January 20, 2005. When one adds the discontent of conservatives with the liberalization of the nation by way of GWB's policies and legalizing criminal aliens by way of amnesty, I think there may be cause for concern.

[CyberAnt]

Thanks! My mom is very healthy .. she only has a little arthritus .. that's it!

I'm very proud of her .. in the year she has lived with me, she has become a registered republican (after being a democrat for 70 years), and she loves Bush and plans to vote for him in 2004. All it took was changing her over from CNN to FOX. Amazing!! She even admitted to me she felt very stupid for ever voting for the Clintons.

[.cnI redruM]

>>>>Your unfounded vitriol makes it even more enjoyable

You are reminding me of Howard Dean telling John Kerry not to whine.

[OldFriend]

Certainly the true blue conservative sure showed us when it came election time in 1992. Guess there are some people who care only for the nose at the end of their face and not the well being of the country, and now, the world.

Let them stay home and answer to G-d.

[.cnI redruM]

H1B visa quota in 2000: 200,000 slots.
H1B visa quota in 2003: 66,000 slots.

Net decrease since Bush took office - 134,000 H1B visas per year.

[DMCA]

Since no one know the number of H1B/L1 visa holders in the US they are unable to enforce the limit. Lou Dobbs has had quite a few people from both commerce and labor Dept's on and NONE of them could give a number. Also more companies are using the L1 visa program to get around the H1B visa limit. Also the blue-card program, as detailed so far, has no limits.

[Final Authority]

With respect to your reply #64, I could argue that voting for Perot, which is why Bush lost, was because they voted for the future of the Nation and not because they had an interest in the Republican party or the Presidency of Bush. You are right, voting for GWB will certainly be good for the world as he apparently is determined to give away our treasure to any liberal cause in another Nation, facilitate shipping away millions of jobs that Americans once had to other Nations, supply criminal aliens with welfare such as health care, SSI, food stamps, and other such things to improve their lives that they could never achieve in their own nation.

At one time in this land, men had three options, do nothing and go along with life, support the King, or fight for what was right. Those who fought for what was right were but 30% of the population. What would you do?

[netmilsmom]

Well bless her heart!
Tell her that I want my girls to grow up to be just like her!

[lasereye]

the new jobs that are being created are mainly in the service industry and service jobs pay less

I don't know about that. Banking and brokerage are services. So is consulting. Maybe you mean low skill service jobs pay less than low skill manufacturing.

[lasereye]

I do not remember large semiconductor fabs and other high tech factories being build in communist countries

They were built in places like Taiwan though.

[LandofLincoln]

NO, it is not a jobless recovery. There are jobs being created all over China and India.

[LandofLincoln]

Not when you condider the amount of people who have left the work force. If you use % you might be able to make an argument, but when you use raw numbers, you have no argument.

[DMCA]

Banking and Brokerage are in the process of being outsourced and L1 companies from India are trying to take over consulting.

[Doc-Joe]

And it does appear as if they gubmint is bringing in a lot of foreign workers to do jobs Americans would like to do,

I know what you mean. I was seeking a job in picking produce, janitorial services, or fast food. I had to settle, however, for a marketing manager position.

[lasereye]

Are you saying financial analysts are being outsourced? What kind of consulting is being taken over by India? Health care? Marketing?

[luckydevi]

for later

[mrustow]

Unemployment at the nadir of the recession 6.4%
Unemployment now 5.7%
That's a net gain 0.7%
That would factually refute the gravamen of the entire article.

First of all, the unemployment stats only count those who still qualify for unemployment checks, not those who have exausted their benefits. And they don't count the increasing numbers of people who were laid off from good paying jobs (i.e., and replaced by the lower-paid foreigners they were forced to train) and now either work at low-wage jobs, or who only have part-time work.