The Jobless Recovery

Washington Post ^ | 1/27/04

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

...This is not the first jobless recovery. In 1991-92 the economy grew steadily, but job growth was almost nil. The reason for such recoveries, as a study by the New York Fed argues, is that the structure of the economy is changing faster than previously. In the 1970s and '80s, unemployment was roughly 50 percent "cyclical": Recessions drove firms to lay off workers and recoveries drove them to hire workers back into the same jobs. Now, by contrast, the "structural" component of unemployment accounts for most job losses: Technological and organizational shifts are driving firms to close jobs down permanently, and laid-off workers are having to look for entirely new work. That takes time. Firms have to create jobs they never had before, which takes longer than re-creating old ones. As a result, the new structural nature of unemployment means that job creation lags in the early stages of a recovery.

Mr. Bush should not be blamed for this, though his irresponsible fiscal policy harms business confidence and therefore job creation. But the bigger question is whether jobless recoveries are a bad thing. They are, after all, the flip side of good news. There is less cyclical unemployment these days, so recessions are milder; fewer jobs are being created now because fewer jobs were destroyed during the downturn. Moreover, a jobless recovery means, by definition, that each worker is producing more. Higher productivity, in turn, is the best promise possible of higher wages and employment in the future. Just look at the past decade: The jobless recovery of 1991-92 ushered in the longest economic expansion of the postwar period, which drove unemployment down to previously unheard-of levels, and fueled improvements in poverty, crime and other social indicators...

[searchandrecovery]

The street was constantly lined with unlicensed street vendors who pretty much worked retail as a full time job...

Charming little story there, redrum. All the shafted IT workers could just become...STREET VENDORS! And I'm sure none of the folks you saw was illegal.

Do you talk just to hear yourself say things?

[Huck]

On the shipping of jobs overseas, someone directed me once to some laws that appear to provide breaks to companies who move jobs elsewhere, but I don't remember the details. Thanks for your feedback.

[.cnI redruM]

Yeah that's exactly what I do. I just talk to hear myself say things. You have a wonderful afternoon and enjoy your position of smug and obnoxious condescension.

[RonBomb]

I haven't seen any evidence, anecdotal or otherwise of a hiring surge in January.

[1rudeboy]

why Why WHY!

If it wasn't for the date-stamp on your reply, I would swear that you wrote it in 1992. Or during most of the 1980's. Or during any Republican administration, for that matter.

[.cnI redruM]

The discussion involved whether or not SS withholdings were an accurate measure of gainful employment. My point was that they were not.

As for what jobless IT people do or don't do, I could give a frigging damn less. I personally, got laid off in both management and sales during the wonderful CLinton economy/IT boom. I didn't have a non-stop pity party going on to make me feel special like the IT people.

I put myself through school, worked crappy, low-wage jobs and retrained. I know work as a Data Analyst and am compensated nicely. It sucked for a while, but I solved my own difficulties rather than wallowing in them. The IT people can go do likewise.

[1rudeboy]

The Economist (magazine) recently demonstrated that manufacturing jobs have been falling, world-wide, for the last 30 years.

[DMCA]

During the 80's and early 90's we didn't have corp america send jobs overseas at the rate they are now. We also where not planing to make a h1b like program with no limits that was open to the entire world.

[Purdue Pete]

My husband is:

An electrical engineer
60 years old
downsized from 3 small companies in past 6 years
worked $10/hr. jobs in between layoffs
lives in technical wasteland - Indiana

AND...he has been hired at a large manufacturing company!!!
They are hiring also.

All of the guys, but one, who were let go at the same time have found jobs in their field. Some have left Indiana, but all have jobs.

He doesn't make the same money, but he was at the peak of his earning power (which was why he was let go). But that's ok...we can manage. You can't have everything!

[searchandrecovery]

You have a wonderful afternoon and enjoy your position of smug and obnoxious condescension.

Thanks, dude. Your unfounded vitriol makes it even more enjoyable. I want you to take a deep breath and step back from the ledge - don't jump.

[1rudeboy]

During the 80's and early 90's we didn't have corp america send jobs overseas at the rate they are now.

Yes we were. And people were howling that the Japanese were buying America with the money that we spent on TV's, VCR's, and autos. Look what happened. Nothing.

We also where not planing to make a h1b like program with no limits that was open to the entire world.

I must warn you that I have studied Immigration Law, and your comment above does not correspond to reality.

[KC_Conspirator]

You can talk to you are blue in the face, yet there are some that will deny the reality of the jobs situation its political implications. It reminds me a little bit of Bush 41 and how he really did not "get it" when it came to the economy.

[1rudeboy]

Jobs will play a deciding factor in the upcoming Election. Now that is a revolutionary theory. Thanks.

[DMCA]

I do not remember large semiconductor fabs and other high tech factories being build in communist countries.

[KC_Conspirator]

Hey, Peggy Noonan shares my view that some people in the GOP can be tone deaf to the issue.

[DMCA]

Do you have any sources for you assertion that jobs where going g off shore then as fast as they are now? You also have to look at this with the understanding that Bush's blue-card program will allow companies to import labor in unlimited amounts and they will not have to pay the prevailing wage.

[1rudeboy]

I do not remember large semiconductor fabs and other high tech factories being build in communist countries.

Finish the thought. You will stop them from being built, how?

[netmilsmom]

>>It solves my major concern .. being able to stay home and take care of my mom (91 yrs old).<<

God Bless you and a big hug to your 91 year young mother.
May she be blessed with many more.

[1rudeboy]

Do you have any sources for you assertion that jobs where going g off shore then as fast as they are now?

Well, you can start by looking at a graph of the civilian unemployment rate for the past 50 or so years here.

[DMCA]

They way we used to stop them by claiming, rightfully so, that they are a dual use tech that China should not have access to.