Dean Goes All In. Betting big in New Hampshire.

NRO ^ | January 26, 2004, 9:39 a.m. | By Chip Griffin

[.cnI redruM]

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE — Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager, must be caught up in the poker craze that seems to be sweeping across America these days. Their activities over the weekend clearly indicate that the Dean campaign has decided to go "all in" with their chips in New Hampshire.

As anyone will know who has watched Celebrity Poker, The World Poker Tour, or any of the other TV shows about the card game that have proliferated in recent months, the popular tournament game of "No Limit Texas Hold'em" allows the player to bet all of the chips he has on one hand. In the terminology of the game, this is called going "all in."

Often, a player must go all in when his chips have dwindled to a precious few and he has no hope of surviving the tournament without a big win. And that's where Dean stands today. Without a strong showing in the Granite State, Howard Dean is as good as done. The former Vermont governor really has no choice but to bet big here.

And betting big he is. The Dean campaign has pulled TV ads in all states except New Hampshire. They are dumping 120,000 videotapes of the Diane Sawyer interview all over the state (enough for about 1 out of every 10 men, women, and children here). The reclusive "Doc Judy" has even begun to pop up almost as much as a whack-a-mole.

Will it pay off? It might. The (admittedly) notoriously unreliable tracking polls seem to indicate that Dean's freefall has abated and some even suggest a little recovery. These same surveys show that Dean's supporters are solid, with roughly three-quarters saying they won't change their mind. Of course, if you're still with Dean today, one has to figure it would take a tsunami to change your vote if the events of the past week haven't softened you. All in all, the Dean campaign has to be feeling better today than they did one week ago.

Now the chips are in and the cards are about to be turned.

[itsallover]

more like 7-2 off

[dangus]

NO! No! no no nononono!

We LIKE Dean!
Sadly to say, Bush's recent decisions on budget and immigration show that we need someone stupid or crazy for him to go up against. Have you seen Bush's poll numbers drop like a stone?

[Fixit]

Unfortunately Dean is playing with a 2-5 off suited and everyone knows it.

Don't you mean a 2-7 off suit?

A 2-5 or 2-6 still allows the possiblity of a straight...

[dangus]

>> Unfortunately Dean is playing with a 2-5 off suited and everyone knows it. >>

Still leaves room for an inside straight.

[jern]

Why? Dean is the one we want to go against.

[.cnI redruM]

Dean's campaign reminds another variant of poker. B--- S---!

[dangus]

O, who are we kidding... You never have to worry about "Straight" and "Dean" appearing together anywhere.

[dangus]

I'm more thinking about him getting a flush. (Odd thought: You can't have a straight AND have two of a kind!)

[chris1]

GO HOWIE GO!!!!!!!!!!!! Edwards or Kerry could give Bush a run for the money. Howie at least would be very entertaining.

[Sunsong]

Go Dean go!

[.cnI redruM]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Maybe not yet.....

[jpl]

I'd love to play high stakes against a nut like Howard Dean. He's got the worst "poker face" imaginable.

[Sunsong]

Zogby has Kerry at 31% and Dean at 28 % in his daily tracking poll. Even a strong second for Dean would be a win. He was declared dead. Here's to a VERY strong showing for Dean or even a win.

We want this election to be fun :-)

[ForOurFuture]

Wouldn't it be great if Dean and Kerry ended up in a virtual tie for the lead, with the margin between the two being not more than 1 to 1.5 points? IMO, it would be hilarious to observe the reaction of the pundits and analysts to such a freak scenario. It would also prolong the struggle and allow chaos into the room. Delightful!

[sphinx]

If Dean can come back in NH, Kerry might have to mortgage another house for the next round ....

[OldFriend]

We have to hope the independents vote for crazy howard for two reasons.... one to stick it to the media for their over hype and one to help our beloved President.

[.cnI redruM]

It could still be up for grabs in late March....

[SamAdams76]

Videotapes? Who still uses a VCR these days? Wouldn't it have been cheaper (and cooler) to crank out a bunch of DVDs? He could have included his "I Have A Scream" speech as bonus material in the "Additional Features" section.

[JohnnyZ]

We want Dean to win tomorrow, and every Bush supporter who is eligible to vote as an Independent tomorrow should pull the lever for Dean.

There are strategic reasons to vote for Dean, Kerry, Clark, and Lieberman, depending on what the polls say.

If the objective is to Stop Edwards: vote for Dean if Edwards is closing in on 2nd, vote for Clark or Lieberman if Edwards can still be edged out for 3rd.

A vote for Kerry helps the Massachusetts liberal gain momentum to overcome his southern weakness and win the nomination.

A vote for Dean helps him stay in 2nd and sets up a Kerry-Dean race with Edwards being pushed to the side (hopefully). I don't think Dean can win the nomination at this point. I hope I'm wrong, but his negatives are HIGH.

A vote for Clark is potentially VERY useful. If Clark beats Edwards in NH, CLARK lays claim to the title of southern candidate and the two of them drag each other down and out. It would take the bloom off the rose and might prevent Edwards from winning SC, which would finish him.

A vote for Lieberman, who has been rising in the polls since his stellar performance in the debate, would be great if it gets him ahead of Edwards. A Kerry-Dean-Lieberman finish would suck the air out of an Edwards candidacy because the media would not be able to concentrate on more than three story lines, and Holy Joe would be the flavor of the day.

[pt17]

I could be wrong on this but I think crazy Howard is our dream demo candidate, especially since he reportedly said that life in Iraq was better under Saddam.