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Advantage Bush
The Weekly Standard ^ | February 2, 2004 | Fred Barnes

Posted on 01/23/2004 9:25:39 PM PST by RWR8189

They would have preferred Dean, but the Bushies are still confident.

Manchester, New Hampshire EVEN BEFORE Howard Dean's campaign began to fall apart, President Bush's underlings were paying attention to Dean's rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination. As the Iowa caucuses drew near, I chatted with a Bush operative at a rally for John Edwards. He was checking out the Democratic senator's campaign apparatus and stump spiel. He held a large Edwards sign in his hands. No doubt other Bush supporters were keeping tabs on Senator John Kerry and retired General Wesley Clark. That's smart politics.

The emergence of Kerry and Edwards in Iowa and Dean's collapse have been widely treated as bad news for Bush. And it's partly true. Dean would probably be the easiest Democrat for Bush to beat. Kerry and Edwards are far more electable. But Dean at least has the money to combat Bush from the time the nomination is locked up, probably in February or early March, until the conventions in late summer when public financing begins. Kerry and Edwards don't, though Kerry could tap his wife's largesse. Also, Iowa drove Dick Gephardt from the race. He was more feared as a potential opponent by the Bush team than either Kerry or Edwards.

If Bush strategists ranked the Democratic candidates as threats to Bush, the list would look like this: (1) Senator Joe Lieberman, (2) Gephardt, (3) Edwards, (4) Kerry, (5) Dean, (6) Clark. And since they regard the Lieberman campaign as dead, too, Bush advisers count the two toughest opponents for Bush as eliminated. Lieberman was feared because he's a centrist with a strong appeal on values issues, a point Lieberman himself made at the last New Hampshire debate here. Gephardt was viewed as a serious foe because of his Midwest roots, personal decency, and what one Bush aide calls his "authentic populism." Gephardt would have challenged Bush in states like Ohio and Missouri that the president won in 2000 and possibly thwarted Bush in states he lost but hopes to pick up this year (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania).

For more than a year, Republicans have been vetting Kerry. Is he vulnerable? Oh, yes, because of his 19-year record in Congress. Bush aides can rattle off Senate votes on national security issues they would use to knock Kerry: votes against the B1 bomber, against the Abrams tank, against the Patriot missile, against the $87 billion to fund the military in postwar Iraq, against full funding for the CIA as the terrorist threat grew. And the Bush camp disputes Kerry's populist credentials since Kerry and his wife are worth roughly $500 million.

Edwards is more competitive than Kerry, if only because his record in Congress is shorter (five years). That means he has little experience in national policymaking, which is a handicap but hardly a disabling one. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were elected with little experience on the national stage. Edwards is in the odd position of running for president explicitly on his supposed electability after deciding not to seek reelection in North Carolina, where his prospects for a second term were no better than 50-50. Edwards may be a greater threat to Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination than he would be to Bush in 2004.

What the Iowa caucuses didn't do was prompt the Bush campaign to accelerate its campaign plans. Bush's State of the Union address did not mark the kickoff. Instead, the campaign will go full-throttle when the Democratic nominee is clear. The longer that takes, the better from Bush's viewpoint. The campaign will spend in excess of $100 million, mostly on TV ads. The shorter the period in which Bush goes head to head, the more likely these ads will produce shock and awe.

Let's assume Dean is the political equivalent of Bruce Willis in the movie "The Sixth Sense"--that is, dead but he doesn't know it. And assume Clark, who isn't taken seriously by the Bush operation, won't be the nominee. Where does that leave Bush in the five major issue clusters against Kerry and Edwards? Let's see.

* National security. The issue here is the two wars, terror and Iraq. Kerry and Edwards scarcely mention Iraq anymore, except when asked. The Bush team interprets this as their having concluded the war issue helps Bush, not them. This is true. Dick Morris's idea that Bush must bring the troops home to win reelection is nonsense. What Bush needs is real progress in Iraq on military and political fronts. And Bush can make the case, as he did last week, that the war on terror is going well. Advantage Bush.

* Economy and taxes. Kerry and Edwards benefit from wanting to keep the Bush tax cuts for the middle class. That helps against Dean but less against Bush. The economy is roaring and the stock market is climbing, but the jobs picture could give Kerry or Edwards an opening. Bush is still 2 million jobs short of where he started in 2001. Advantage Bush (for now).

* Education. With passage of the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001, Bush neutralized the education issue, long a Democratic talking point. But Democrats have pounded him for not spending more, and his hold on the issue has eroded. He's beginning to fight back, but not as aggressively as Kerry and Edwards are attacking. Advantage Democrats.

* Health care. This is the best Democratic issue. Sure, Bush got a prescription drug benefit for the elderly, but polls show the public isn't appreciative. Meanwhile there's strong support for more government aid on health care. Bush will never be able to out-promise Kerry and Edwards. Advantage Democrats.

* Culture. One of the most politically potent passages in the State of the Union was Bush's take on gay marriage. It was a threefer, attacking judicial activism, gay marriage itself, and (by implication) Kerry's home state, Massachusetts, whose supreme court ruled in favor of same-sex marriage. Advantage Bush.

The president has another advantage, the ability to alter the political landscape, at least briefly. He can command the nation's attention at any time, change policies, announce new initiatives, meet with foreign leaders at summits, and so on. In their first big political test in Iowa, neither Kerry nor Edwards showed the ability to create openings on his own. They were reactive, and they got lucky. Kerry got the endorsement of an ex-Green Beret whose life he saved in Vietnam. The fellow, whom Kerry hadn't seen in 35 years, phoned out of the blue. Edwards played off the bitter squabbling in speeches and ads between Dean and Gephardt. To beat Bush, Kerry or Edwards will have to do a lot better.

Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush43; electionpresident; fredbarnes; weeklystandard
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To: Gunslingr3
Well let's see. I made a killing in the 90's market because I was smart enough to sell high. I spent 8 years in the Middle East making more money than you will see in a lifetime. I retired at 54 and am not eligble for SS for 6 more years. I have no debt and a 3 thousand square foot house completely paid for. All of my kids are out of college and doing well and are not whining little brats like some around here. Any other questions?
181 posted on 01/24/2004 2:17:35 AM PST by Texasforever
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To: Texasforever
Any other questions?

yes - the one I asked. Which largesse do you collect, or plan to collect, from the federal government?

182 posted on 01/24/2004 2:19:36 AM PST by Gunslingr3
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To: Gunslingr3
Which largesse do you collect, or plan to collect, from the federal government?

LOL. Did you see what I posted? Damn kid did you even go to school? I made too much for student loans for my kids, I am not even old enough for Social; Security or other" largesse and I don't need it anyway. I paid the maximum withholding tax for SS for 30 years and I never begrudged it going to my parent’s generation. You on the other hand are a whining Gen Xer.

183 posted on 01/24/2004 2:25:50 AM PST by Texasforever
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To: MJY1288
I am reading this and notice you came to the same conclusion I did about lack of vetoes.The Pork was added to things that were necessary and urgent to pass.

That is what we should hold our representatives feet to the fire for..but it's always the other guy's expenditure that's Pork.Our Pork is worthy and admirable.
184 posted on 01/24/2004 2:26:52 AM PST by MEG33
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To: Texasforever
I wonder sometimes if people read the posts they are basing their questions on..or read the answers!
185 posted on 01/24/2004 2:29:40 AM PST by MEG33
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To: BlackbirdSST; Mo1
Here you go. Educate yourself, and while you're at it, get down on your kness and thank God for President Bush.

http://www.freerepublic.com/~mo1/
186 posted on 01/24/2004 4:26:05 AM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: onyx
Educate yourself, and while you're at it, get down on your kness and thank God for President Bush.

I'm sitting here listening to Wes Clark on c-span and he just said if he is president .. he's going pass a law to force all parents to pay for their kids insurance till they are 21 and if they can't pay for it ... the government will

187 posted on 01/24/2004 6:48:39 AM PST by Mo1 (Join the dollar a day crowd now!)
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To: Mo1
OMG! Turn that thing off. It'll ruin your day.

You know, Mo, I think Weasley is deranged. Seriously.
188 posted on 01/24/2004 6:52:16 AM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: onyx
What and miss all the fun ... They are now saying they'll have Kerry on later playing an Ice Hockey game
189 posted on 01/24/2004 7:02:13 AM PST by Mo1 (Join the dollar a day crowd now!)
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To: Mo1; onyx
Don't ya'll EVER sleep?
190 posted on 01/24/2004 7:03:42 AM PST by EllaMinnow
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To: redlipstick; Mo1
LOL! Whenever I can. How about you, Mo?
191 posted on 01/24/2004 7:28:21 AM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: onyx; redlipstick
Sleep?? HA! .. what's that?

I have 3 kids and won't get my life back till the year 2018 .. so I figure I'm gonna sleep right thru 2019
192 posted on 01/24/2004 7:47:37 AM PST by Mo1 (Join the dollar a day crowd now!)
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To: GeronL
The Bushies should not feel confident. Many conservatives will stay home, count on it

Many may stay at home but I WILL NOT COUNT on it. I will do my duty and vote for GW the ONLY person in the race that has ANY conservative leanings at all.

193 posted on 01/24/2004 7:52:59 AM PST by PISANO (God Bless our Troops........They will not TIRE - They will not FALTER - They will not FAIL!!!!!)
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To: Mo1; redlipstick
Sleep?? HA! .. what's that?

I have 3 kids and won't get my life back till the year 2018 .. so I figure I'm gonna sleep right thru 2019

LMAO! Pssssst. Your problems ain't over when the children leave home. Trust me on this. I'm raising grandchildren.

The other day, I added it up and I've been raising babies non-stop for 35 years, and I see no end in sight since the little one is only four years old. IF, she's the last I'll be raising, my life will begin in 2018 also. Where do you want to go to celebrate? Nearest bar?

194 posted on 01/24/2004 7:56:27 AM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: onyx
Where do you want to go to celebrate? Nearest bar?

Son't care .. but it has to be near a warm sunny beach ..

It's snowing here ... I'm soooooo sick of snow *L*

195 posted on 01/24/2004 8:03:00 AM PST by Mo1 (Join the dollar a day crowd now!)
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To: BlackbirdSST
"Surely between the 3-4 of you, you can come up with 28 more examples of Conservative moves from this Admin."

That's easy. President Bush has *accomplished* more Conservative things in the last 3 years than any other President, starting with banning at least one form of abortion, cutting taxes, signing the first ever repeal of federal gun control, and killing globalist treaties like Kyoto and the U.S. - CCCP ABM treaty. See below.

Presidency of George W. Bush -- the first 36 months

 

Banned Partial Birth Abortion

Reversed Clinton's move to strike Reagan's anti-abortion Mexico Policy

Killed the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty

Killed U.S. involvement in the International Criminal Court

Killed Clinton's CO2 rules that were choking off all of the electricity surplus to California.

Killed Clinton's "ergonomic" rules that OSHA was about to implement; rules that would have shut down every home business in America.

Killed the U.S. - CCCP ABM Treaty that was preventing the U.S. from deploying our ABM defenses


Has CONSTRUCTION in process on the first ten ABM silos in Alaska so that America has a defense against North Korean nukes

 

Pushed through THREE raises for our military.

Increased Defense Dept funding which had deteriorated during the previous 8 years

 

Stopped foreign aid that would be used to fund abortions.

Supported and upheld the ban on abortions at military hospitals

Signed E.O. reversing Clinton's policy of not requiring parental consent for abortions under the Medical Privacy Act

Signed TWO bills into law that arm our pilots with handguns in the cockpit

Currently pushing for full immunity from lawsuits for our national gun manufacturers

Ordered Attorney-General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, NOT a leftist-imagined *collective* right


Told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control (i.e. the International Ban on Small Arms Trafficking Treaty)

Disarmed Libya of its Chemical, Nuclear, and biological WMD's without bribes or bloodshed

Successfully executed 2 wars: Afghanistan and Iraq. 50 million people who had lived under tyrannical regimes now live in freedom

 

Executed a WAR ON TERROR by getting world-wide cooperation to track funds/terrorists (has cut off much of the terrorist's funding and captured or killed many key leaders of the al Qaeda network)

 

Brought back our EP-3 intel plane and crew from China without any bribes or bloodshed

Started withdrawing our troops from Bosnia and has announced withdrawal of our troops from Germany and the Korean DMZ.

Signed the LARGEST nuclear arms reduction in world history with Russia

Initiated comprehensive review of our military, which was completed just prior to 9/11/01, accurately reported that ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE was critical.

Changed the tone in the White House, restoring HONOR and DIGNITY to the Presidency

Reorganized bureaucracy...after 9/11, condensed 20+ overlapping agencies and their intelligence sectors into one agency: the Department of Homeland Security.

Initiated discussion on privatizing Social Security and individual investment accounts.

Improving govt. efficiency with .8 million jobs put up for bid...weakening unions and cutting undeserved pay raises. Wants merit based promotions/raises only.

Orchestrated Republican control of the White House, the House AND the Senate.

Killed the liberal ABA's role in vetting federal judges for Congress.

GWB signed an executive order enforcing the Supreme Court's Beck decision (re: union dues being used for political campaigns against individual's wishes)

Turned around an inherited economy that was in recession.

Passed tough new laws to hold corporate criminals to account as a result of corporate scandals.

Signed 2 income tax cuts ---- 1 of which was the largest Dollar value tax cut in world history


Reduced taxes on dividends and capital gains

In process of eliminating IRS marriage penalty.

Increased small business incentives to expand and to hire new people


Signed into law the No Child Left Behind legislation delivering the most dramatic education reforms in a generation (challenging the soft bigotry of low expectations)

Reorganized the INS in an attempt to safeguard the borders and ports of America and to eliminate bureaucratic redundancies and lack of accountability.

Signed trade promotion authority

Committed US funds to purchase medicine for millions of men and women and children now suffering with AIDS in Africa

Passed Medicare Reform (authorized $39.5 Billion per year for preventive medicine such as drugs and doctor visits as well as included a ten year Privatization option)

Urging federal liability reform to eliminate frivolous lawsuits

Supports class action reform bill which limits lawyer fees so that more settlement money goes to victims

Submitted comprehensive Energy Plan--awaits Congressional action (works to develop cleaner technology, produce more natural gas here at home, make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, improve national grid, etc.)

Endorses and promotes The Responsibility Era ("In a compassionate society, people respect one another and take responsibility for the decisions they make in life. My hope is to change the culture from one that has said, if it feels good, do it; if you've got a problem, blame somebody else -- to one in which every single American understands that he or she are responsible for the decisions that you make; you're responsible for loving your children with all your heart and all your soul; you're responsible for being involved with the quality of the education of your children; you're responsible for making sure the community in which you live is safe; you're responsible for loving your neighbor, just like you would like to be loved yourself. " -----this quote was too good to leave out)

Started the USA Freedom Corps

Initiated review of all federal agencies with a goal to eliminate federal jobs (completed September 2003) in an effort to reduce the size of federal gov while increasing private sector jobs.

Part of coalition (Russia, Israel, EU, Palestine, USA) for Israeli/Palestinian "Roadmap to Peace"

Challenged the United Nations to live up to their responsibilities and not become The League of Nations ( in other words, completely irrelevant)

Nominated strong, conservative judges to the judiciary.

Changed parts of the Forestry Management Act to allow necessary clean-up of the national forests in order to reduce fire danger.

As part of the national forests clean-up, the President restricted judicial challenges (based on the Endangered Species Act and other challenges) and removed the need for an EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) before removing fuels/logging to reduce fire danger.


Significantly eased field-testing controls of genetically engineered crops.

President Bush signed the workplace verification bill to prevent hiring of illegal Aliens
S. 1685, the Basic Pilot Extension Act of 2003, was signed by President Bush on December 3, 2003.
It extends for five years the workplace employment eligibility authorization pilot programs created in 1996. It expands the pilot programs from the original five states to all 50 states.


196 posted on 01/24/2004 9:25:19 AM PST by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Texasforever
****I don't know. The level of silliness I have seen around here for the last 2 weeks dwarfs anything I have seen on FR to date. This is approaching Olympic proportions of idiocy.****

Perhaps there is a direct correlation between our age and our tolerance for stupidity? I know MY bull pucky tolerance quotient has been pinging higher and higher.....every year.

197 posted on 01/24/2004 9:33:55 AM PST by justshe (Do you trust a Democrat to protect America?)
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To: Gunslingr3
You think AQ would fold it's tent without OBL? You missed the WH memo, OBL isn't important, we don't mention him anymore...

Under GWB's leadership, we've diminished Al Qaeda by 70%.

I guarantee you, that no democrat presidential candidate could have or would have accomplished that, and I DO NOT want any democrat to be given the opportunity to reverse that trend.

198 posted on 01/24/2004 9:56:31 AM PST by alnick (A vote for anyone but George W. Bush for president in 2004 is a vote to strengthen Al Qaeda.)
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To: Texasforever
You on the other hand are a whining Gen Xer.

Opposition to welfare/socialism is 'whining'. Noted for future reference.

199 posted on 01/24/2004 10:04:17 AM PST by Gunslingr3
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To: Gunslingr3
Folks born after ~1971

Just as I thought.

200 posted on 01/24/2004 10:12:24 AM PST by alnick (A vote for anyone but George W. Bush for president in 2004 is a vote to strengthen Al Qaeda.)
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