it's the trend lines that are key in politics, said Charlie Black, a veteran GOP strategist and former chairman of the Republican National Committee. Still, Black said, there are reasons for Republicans not to be overconfident this January. "I'd rather be in our shoes than theirs, but it's also true that the country's very closely divided on a party basis, and if both sides consolidate their bases, it's going to be a close race," he said. "The president has an advantage, but it's not a huge advantage."
...
In fact, the economy has lost about 2.3 million jobs under Bush, the worst job creation record of any president since Herbert Hoover.
Bush is ticking off his base on two fronts: 1) out-of-control deficit spending; and 2) a radical amnesty plan to legalize millions of illegal immigrants and to hugely increase immigration levels. It makes me ill that Bush is proposing the latter when millions of Americans have lost their jobs.
If Bush and Rove think that they will win this November in a walk anyway, I guess they won't lose any sleep over the disaffection of many in the Republican base.
But if Black is being serious, and the 2004 election is expected to be a cliff-hanger like 2000 was, Bush had better think long and hard about the problems his spending and amnesty plan are causing among people who would otherwise consider him the obvious choice in an election against a Democrat.
I live in California, in a small farming community in the Sacramento Valley. Over half the residents of our town are migrant workers and their families. The flood of immigrants coming into our state is of concern to me, but I also see the reality that if we rounded them all up and threw them across the border, the ag industry in California would be decimated. I'm not thrilled with Bush's immigration proposal, but I'm also not going to kick him to the side of the road over one or two issues.
If Bush loses, it will be more the fault of strident narrowminded "conservatives" who blow one or two issues way out of proportion compared to the bigger picture. Fortunately, this "base" you say is being driven away amounts to a very small proportion of the electorate.
"Bush is ticking off his base on two fronts: 1) out-of-control deficit spending; and 2) a radical amnesty plan to legalize millions of illegal immigrants and to hugely increase immigration levels."
TWO QUESTIONS:
1.) Who comprises the President's base? Libertarians? Bucchannites? Members of the Consitution Party? Republicans?
If you answered Republicans, you would be correct! In last week's ABCNews/WashingtonPost Poll, 93% of Republicans indicated that they APPROVE of the President's job performance!
2.) If, as you claim, the "base" disapproves of the President's performance relative to the two issues you identify, on what issues (policy or performance) does the base agree?
--WAR ON TERROR? (THE overriding issue!)
--NATIONAL SECURITY?
--ECONOMIC PRO-GROWTH AGENDA? (a comprehensive pro-marriage, pro-small business plan that includes MUCH more than simple tax relief)
--PRO-LIFE INITIATIVES? (e.g., Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, Partial Birth Abortion ban, support for Unborn Victims of Violence Act, funding for crisis pregnancy centers, adoption programs, and on and on and on)
--CHARACTER/LEADERSHIP/FAITH?
--and so on, and so on, and so on
I'll answer by citing the following comments from the President's BASE ('real' people NOT policy wonks/ideological demagogues -- and no, I'm not saying you qualify as the latter):
"President Bush enjoyed a friendly crowd at Roswell’s Convention and Civic Center (NM) on Thursday as he hammered home points from this week’s State of the Union address.
Curry County Sheriff Roger Hatcher was among the supporters.
“I’m glad we have a president with backbone, who’s not afraid to make difficult decisions, regardless of how it affects his chances for re-election,”
The people of the world trust the word of America,” he said to whoops and hollers from the crowd.
Sheriff Hatcher summarized Bush’s speech as “excellent,” and Undersheriff Doug Bowman agreed with him.
“I’m grateful for his respect for law enforcement and the military. We’ve got a president who stands behind us 110 percent,” Bowman said.
Jordan Strebeck, a Clovis High School senior and student body president, also made the trip to Roswell. He said for someone who is interested in politics, Bush’s speech was “one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen.”
“I think he really cares about America and the people of America,” he added.
Strebeck’s friend Jason Seefeld, also a CHS senior, said Bush’s stands on the war on terror and home-front security impressed him.
“It was a once-in-a lifetime experience for us to come here and hear what he had to say,” Seefeld said.
Roswell resident Dottie Edwards said this was only the second time a sitting president has visited Roswell. Ronald Reagan visited the city in 1984. She said what she liked best about Bush’s speech was his honesty about the issues."
http://cnjonline.com/engine.pl?station=clovis&template=storyfull.html&id=4010