Posted on 01/22/2004 3:58:25 PM PST by Howlin
Dems to Face Off in Debate
Thursday, January 22, 2004
By Liza Porteus
MANCHESTER, N.H. — The seven Democratic contenders for the nomination to go head-to-head with President Bush in November will face off Thursday night in the last public debate before the New Hampshire primary.
The debate could be a make-or-break event for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (search) and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark (search), in particular, leading up to Tuesday's first-in-the-nation Democratic primary. Clark's campaign seems to have lost a little momentum to Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (search) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (search), whom many politicos see as a potential up-and-comer.
"I think if you're looking for an upset, look toward John Edwards ... there still could be a late break," said Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review.
Dean has seen his poll numbers spiral downward quickly and Clark's chances of getting one of the tickets out of New Hampshire could hinge on his performance in the debate, sponsored by Fox News Channel and scheduled to air at 8 p.m. EST.
According to a Fox News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll released Thursday evening, Kerry, still riding the "Iowa bounce" from his caucus victory in the Hawkeye State Monday night, is leading the race to win the New Hampshire primary. Dean continues to drop in the eyes of Granite State Democrats, according to the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (search).
Dean has dropped 7 percentage points in the last three days while Kerry has gained 6 percentage points. There was a potential sampling error of 4.4 percentage points.
• Click here for the N.H. Tracking Poll (pdf).
Meanwhile, Fox News has learned at least one New Hampshire tracking poll to be released Friday will show Dean has slipped as far as third place.
The pollster, who requested anonymity, said, "Dean is done, he shot himself in the foot with his scream and has not done anything to stop the bleeding. Dean is going on Letterman next? He's crazy."
That "scream" was in reference to Dean's post-Iowa caucus outburst, in which he screamed red-faced into a microphone — a move that still has a lot of people shaking their heads.
"Not only are we going to New Hampshire ... we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York," he yelled. "And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. YEAHHHH!!!"
•
Late-night talk shows are using the impassioned speech for comic relief, and remixes of the speech featuring the rock band Guns 'N Roses and house music are flying around the Internet at warp speed.
"There's something that happened in Iowa Monday night that I don't think you can undo," said Fred Barnes, co-host of Fox News' "The Beltway Boys." "The 'yeahhh' heard around the world."
Based in part on that incident, added the other co-host, Mort Kondracke, "the danger is, this guy will go postal in the middle of a world crisis."
Thursday, Dean made light of his political blunder, saying, "I still have not recovered my voice from my screeching in Iowa."
• For more campaign news, click to view Foxnews.com's You Decide 2004 page.
The Debate
The presidential contenders campaigned their way into the final debate Thursday.
"It's an important moment," said Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (search), trailing in the polls behind Clark, Edwards, Kerry and Dean.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (search) and Al Sharpton (search ) also rated spots on the debate stage at Saint Anselm College.
Dean and Clark supporters arrived at the debate locale more than four hours early.
Dean's voice is still hoarse from his Monday night outburst. He wouldn't discuss his debate strategy if he had one, he said, "because I wouldn't like to make that public before we actually do the debate."
A large number of Democrats see Dean as the least consistent candidate in the field. Rival campaigns expect the doctor-turned-politician to take the edge off of his Iowa performance with self-deprecating humor.
"I think he'll take the risk. The question is, is he too cute?" asked Tony Coelho, former campaign manager for Al Gore and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. "If he's too cute and you add that to the hotness of the other night, it's not presidential."
The potential big winner of the night could turn out to be Edwards — whose poll numbers have been gradually rising — if he comes across as positive and upbeat as he has in recent weeks.
Clark's selling points have been his military pedigree and his southern roots, but Edwards is increasingly popular in the South and Kerry is also a respected military man. Clark spokesman Bill Buck said his boss won't launch verbal attacks against other candidates except Bush.
New Hampshire voters will be drawn to "Gen. Clark's very positive view of the possibilities of America's future," Buck said.
Kucinich told Fox News he plans on being completely honest as part of his debate strategy.
"It's really a matter of being true to yourself … it's important to focus on the purpose and my purpose in the presidential race," the congressman said in a pre-debate interview, adding he will focus on proving the Iraq war was unnecessary, pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq and inserting U.N. peacekeepers.
"It's so important we have a president that will lead this country to peace and prosperity and the only way to do that is to tell the truth," Kucinich said.
To continue and even further his lead, Kerry advisers told Fox News that the senator will try to stay above the fray in Thursday night's debate and look presidential and electable. He will not to attack and will try to respond gracefully to attacks against him.
"Kerry does not want in any way to get negative and he's going to have to deflect people who come after him," Coelho said. "So he's going to have to try to keep it calm. No mistakes, Kerry will win."
The Polls
Of the 489 likely New Hampshire primary voters who were interviewed from Jan. 19-21 in the pre-debate Fox News poll, 30 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Kerry, 25 percent support Dean, 19 percent Clark, 8 percent Edwards, 7 percent Lieberman, 3 percent support Kucinich and 7 percent remain undecided.
An earlier Boston Herald poll of New Hampshire voters showed Kerry with 31 percent to Dean's 21 percent, while Clark had 16 percent. Edwards garnered 11 percent and Lieberman 4 percent.
A previous Fox News New Hampshire tracking poll taken from Jan. 18-20 showed Kerry and Dean in a virtual dead heat.
Fox News' Carl Cameron and Major Garrett contributed to this report.
Interesting to see that Edward's second place surprise in Iowa hasn't done much for his poll numbers.
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