India, Russia sign Gorshkov deal (... Nuclear armed aircraft carrier)

Deccan Herald (Bangalore, India) ^ | Deccan Herald

[Brian_Baldwin]

Note: BOLD-BLUE my highlights ...

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India, Russia sign Gorshkov deal

The refurbished aircraft carrier with its fighter planes will give the Indian Navy a virtual marine monopoly in the South Asian region.

NEW DELHI, DHNS / UNI:

After protracted negotiations since the mid 1990s, India on Tuesday inked its biggest ever defence deal worth 1.5 billion US dollars (Rs 7,000 crore) for the acquisition of 44,500 tonne aircraft carrier “Admiral Gorshkov” with its complement of 28 MIG 29-K fighter planes from Russia.

The deal for the purchase of the refurbished aircraft carrier was announced by Defence Minister George Fernandes and his Russian counterpart Sergei Ivanov at a joint press conference. Mr Fernandes said the signing of the deal was a “historic occasion” and constituted “a major landmark between India and Russia in strategic and defence relations”. He said it would contribute to “the furthering of our defence, technological and bilateral relations as a whole”.

Mr Ivanov observed that India-Russia relations had progressed from a buyer-seller one to R&D as evident from cooperation over the Bhramos missile project. The military-technical ties between the two countries also extended to joint exercises with each other, he said. The two sides had common perceptions on Iraq and Afghanistan, besides, a “meeting of minds on counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation”, Mr Ivanov pointed out.

Referring to the interaction with his Russian counterpart, Mr Fernandes explained, “our discussions were productive… with several commonalities.” He said “defence relations were excellent and on track.” Mr Fernandes said, “Ivanov is a friend of India.”

Mr Ivanov said defence ties form a fundamental component of India-Russia relations and events around the globe demand international efforts to cope with them. In the context of the aircraft carrier sale, the Russian Defence Minister noted, “future contracts involve technical assistance and development of infrastructure.” Commenting on the T-90 main battle tank imported from Russia, Mr Ivanov said they are fully operational and have undergone all range of tests to assess its performance under different climatic conditions. The carrier will be modernised for the Indian Navy under a 700-million-dollar project.

Admiral Gorshkov was laid down at a shipyard in Nikolayev (Ukraine) in December 1978 and inducted into the then USSR Navy in December 1991 as ‘Baku’.


ADMIRAL GORSHKOV

* Cost: US $1.5 billion, the biggest defence deal so far

* The ship has a fleet of 28 Mig-29K fighter planes

* Weighs over 44,000 tonnes, speed of more than 30 knots

* Nuclear-armed

* Neighbours Pakistan and China left behind

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[Brian_Baldwin]

In larger context, this is part of the emerging US-Russia-India alliance against China as well as eventual Islamic terrorism. You think not. But watch.

[Paleo Conservative]

In larger context, this is part of the emerging US-Russia-India alliance against China as well as eventual Islamic terrorism.

But Russia also sells its most advanced MIGs to China as well. Sounds like a reversal of Lenin's boast that the capitlists would sell him the rope from which they would hang.

[Brian_Baldwin]

Here's the Russian side of the story (Moscow Times, http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/01/21/001.html):

$1.5Bln Gorshkov Contract Is SealedBy Lyuba Pronina
Staff Writer

	Ajit Kumar / AP Ivanov posing with his Indian counterpart George Fernandes in New Delhi on Tuesday.

As defense officials toasted the $1.5 billion deal to supply the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to India, analysts speculated whether domestic firms can deliver on time, and how Moscow will hold on to its position as New Delhi's leading arms supplier.

Wrapping up nearly a decade of laborious negotiations, Russia and India signed a package of contracts Tuesday, obligating Moscow to upgrade and deliver the carrier by 2008.

"These contracts constitute a landmark in our military-technical cooperation and will contribute to the furthering of our defense, technological and bilateral relations as a whole," Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said at a news conference in New Delhi with his visiting Russian counterpart, Sergei Ivanov.

The 20-year-old Gorshkov will be given to India for free. But its retrofit will cost about $650 million, while its fitting with 16 MiG-29 and eight Ka-27 and Ka-31 naval helicopters will come at a price of an extra $730 million, according to media reports.

Ivanov said that the Gorshkov deal will be followed by contracts to include the creation of port infrastructure. He said it was too early to talk about price.

A source in the aviation industry said that an option of 30 additional MiG-29s has been discussed.

Overall, the eventual sum of contracts could come up to $3 billion, said Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

"This is a success not only for Russia but also for India. It joins the United States and France in an elite club of carrier owners, which is even tighter than that of the nuclear powers."

Last month Indian naval chief Madhvendra Singh said the Gorshkov will "change the scene completely in our area," Reuters reported.

India's only carrier at present, the INS Viraat, was built for defense and has a limited range.

Now the Gorshkov will give the Indian navy the capacity to put a carrier task force within range of China.

With the deal finally complete, Russian manufacturers will have to make a concerted effort to meet the deadline, Makiyenko said.

"It will be a serious challenge, but they simply have to do it now."

An official at the Severodvinsk machine-building enterprise, or Sevmash, where the Gorshkov has been idle since 1997, said the deal would be a boost for the company. Currently the company's 23,000 employees survive on an average salary of a little more than $100 per month making an oil platform for state oil company Rosneft and constructing four nuclear submarines for the navy.

"In Soviet times, we had 40,000 staff and made five ships per year. Now we make one in a decade," the company official said. He insisted, however, that Sevmash has all the skilled labor it needs to carry out the retrofit of Gorshkov and is unlikely to invite outside specialists.

Makiyenko said the greater challenge is for Russian Aircraft Building Corp. MiG.

"In the last few years MiG has subsisted on platforms it inherited from the Soviet Union," he said.

"Now it will have to make aircraft from scratch, as well as finish up research and development on the jet."

After supplying a batch of MiG-29s to Malaysia in 1995, the company's finances dried up until new chief Nikolai Nikitin scored $1 billion in new contracts in 2001. Nikitin was fired last year under controversy, and replaced by Valery Toryanin, a former senior manager at rival Sukhoi.

"A real battle is now going on where to produce the MiG-29s" for the Gorshkov, a source in the aviation industry said.

Competing options are MiG's own facility in the Moscow region, the Sokol plant in Nizhny Novgorod or Sukhoi's facility in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

Tuesday's deal further bolsters Russia's position as India's No. 1 supplier. Conversely, India is Russia's most important arms market after China.

The Soviet Union and later Russia have sold $33 billion worth of arms to India since 1960, Ivanov said.

But analyst Makiyenko said that despite this long relationship, Russia will have to make good on its obligations to ward off growing competition from Israel and France.

Makiyenko said the Gorshkov deal is the first major arms contract with India since 2001, when a $700 million agreement was signed for 310 T-90C tanks to be either delivered or built under license.

More than 130 tanks have already been delivered and more units are being sent for assembly in India, Ivanov said in New Delhi.

The remaining 12 Su-30MKI fighters under a 1996 deal will be delivered later this year, an aviation official said.

India also wants to lease Akula-class nuclear submarines and long-range Tupolev strategic bombers. Ivanov said there were no talks on the subs, but said he does not rule out delivery of the Tupolevs. Having received two out of three frigates last year, India is actively negotiating the purchase of three more, a source close to manufacturer Baltiisky Zavod said.

Marat Kenzhetayev, an expert with the Center for Arms Control, said that the battleships could be the next big contract for Russia.

Kenzhetayev said that Russia could also count on more diesel sub deliveries and the modernization of T-72 tanks and MiG-27 fighters.

Analysts agreed that Russia has managed to hold its position as India's primary arms supplier, despite New Delhi's drive for diversification.

"Our task is to stay within the top three suppliers," Makiyenko said.

Besides Israel and France, the United States has also identified India as a potential customer.

President George W. Bush said earlier this month that the United States and India will expand cooperation on missile defense.

The sale of the U.S. Patriot missile defense system to India could be a possibility in the longer-term future, said Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of Washington's Center for Defense Information.

"Unlike with China, which takes weapons of consecutive generations, India is making a leap," he said. "Though [the Indians] have a policy of using other systems, they will have a technological problem of digesting them."

Kenzhetayev said that India will be wary of submitting itself to technical dependence on a global leader whose opinions can be swiftly altered.

A source in an aviation company said the real test will be India's upcoming tender for a light fighter, where the MiG-29 will stand off against France's Mirage-2000-5.

"We are calm about [the competition] and understand that the vast Indian market can be sustained only on the quality and competitiveness of our products," Ivanov said.

[BroncosFan]

Don't forget Japan. A nice second term diplomatic achievement would be a redux of TR's Portsmouth deal between Russia and Japan. It's time they cut a deal on the Kuriles and some American brokering might help. That's how TR got his Nobel, though I doubt Dubya would get one even if he brought us world peace.

[Brian_Baldwin]

"President George W. Bush said earlier this month that the United States and India will expand cooperation on missile defense." --- wonder what that means

[Brian_Baldwin]

Well, yes, I want to see Japan get into the alliance (of the future). I want to see a US-RUSSIA-INDIA-JAPAN alliance against Islamic threat and the coming China threat. I even see Israel playing a part. That's what I want to see. And, that's what I think needs to happen (in my humble opinion). I see this becoming more of an ideation of conservatives post-Bush, e.g. going into the years 2010 abouts. Right now it's Islamic Fascism. They will be defeated. Communist China is coming close behind, unless, and this IS possible, their own people overthrow the communist dictatorship.

[BroncosFan]

Those sales (and it's a lot more than just jets) seem foolish, but I don't think Putin's a fool. He's in hock to the mil-ind complex and this keeps them happy. Grand strategy-wise, it's buying time and encouraging the PRC to go south and not north. Eventually, if China holds together, she will seek to redress the unequal treaties made with the czars. Putin's gambling Russia will have it's act together by then. Unfortunately, demographic trends suggest otherwise.

[Brian_Baldwin]

I want to see Japan rearm. Shocking, I know. But ... that's how I see it. Also, no one is going to stop India. They are a coming super power, already they are the blue water leaders. And, they are also a natural friend against common enemies, even if they don't fully understand that yet. We need them. And they need us. And yes, we also need Japan.

[BroncosFan]

India and Japan just had their first joint naval exercise. I think Vietnam played along too. I think a soft, unspoken form of containment is being practiced already.

[JSteff]

This is more like an addition to the Russia/China military 'understanding' against us. They are more trying to scare us. Right now they all see how basically 'all oceans are belong to us'.

China and Russia have no ability to be militarily south of Asia, because they have no bases or other ability to project power there. We have the ability to secure our oil because of our presence there which makes them unimportant to us. This scares them.

India is using everyone as they can right now but is NOT happy about our cozy relations with Pakistan... even though they know we will chuck Pakistan when they have expended their nukes. India is really does not care about either Russia, China, or us so this is just a chance to get some technology to investigate so they can do it themselves later.

Russia is far less afraid of China than us. Terrorism is a problem they brutally (rightfully) handle on their own. So this is more a bid to make us have to reallocate assets (some subs, cruisers, carrier or two) to cover an Indian carrier just south of "our" oil fields in the ME.

There is nothing in this for us.

[Orion78]

PING!

[Jason Kauppinen]

"Russia is far less afraid of China than us."

How do you figure?

[COEXERJ145]

I'm not quite sure that India is getting that great of a deal. The Kievs were never the best the Soviets had to offer and with all the modifications to allow it to operate conventional aircraft, one has to wonder how effective it will still be. Besides, I'm sure one Exocet would send it right to the bottom.

As to why Russia is selling it, they just want to get rid of it. If they don't sell it, the ship will just rust away and sooner or later they'll have to clean up the mess. This way they make a nice profit and dispose of a useless asset.

I'm surprised India didn't purchase the Kuznetsov seeing how Russia doesn't have the money to operate the thing except for short periods of time. It is far more advanced than the Kiev class Admiral Gorshkov.

[Cronos]

Grand strategy-wise, it's buying time and encouraging the PRC to go south and not north.

WEll, if that is the strategy, it's a foolish one. China will not try to expand southwards into South East Asia and India because there are dense populations already there. It's easier for them to move northwards into Siberia where there are vast reserves of oil, gas, etc. I wonder what's the Russians plans for this eventuality. After all, Siberia, until the 1700s was still open to all and the Chinese would consider it a good plan to expand for liebenstraum -- and Russia has been invaded from the east more than once before.

[Cronos]

Russia has been trying to regain Constantinople for centuries (though it was denied them by the English and French fighting FOR theMuslimTurks against Russia in the Crimean war). Russia also fears losing Siberia to China. China's got the demographic momentum now and it's willing to wait for decades more. India cares a LOT about China -- they've fought a war with them already and would like to take Tibet away from China and restore it as a buffer state.

[Cronos]

I'm sure one Exocet would send it right to the bottom.

Pretty true, but then the Indian navy is not directed against us, it's directed against the navies (and Air forces) of China and Pakistan and maybe to scare Arabian threats. Against THEM it's pretty effective. Against OUR navy, quite frankly, the entire world's navies COMBINED would have no chance at all, not now and not for another 2 decades at least.

[Cronos]

The decision was very nearly made in the winter of 2001 to do a massive combined take over of Pakistan

Where do you figure that?

[RussianConservative]

Problem is geography...to reach oil field in Siberia only have short distance of 2 thousand kilometere of some of most rugged mountain and dense forest in world...great partisan land and few major roads. China oil reserve for whole country is 30 days...2,000 km of mountain land is far to travel, especially when superior airforce bomb only few routes to get there....no chinese not go north first, Taiwan, Vietnam maybe. Indian navel ship so India can stop Chinese oil and shipping from Africa...while it and Vietnam attack north...then there is issue of Phillipenes and China traffic.

[Cronos]

But the Mongols and the Huns moved over the steppes and Tundra pretty fast. Even now, the Russian military is powerful enough to stop them, but in five years? To head north, they're already infiltrating into Siberia. they can't do so to the South as the nations there don't really have hte space and can manage the smaller borders more effectively. Your border with China is HUGE. More impossible than the US border with Mexico/.