[AuH2ORepublican]

"So it'll be bye-bye Gephardt and Kerry.

What do you base this on?"

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If Gephardt finishes second and Kerry finishes fourth (as I predict), I think they'll both have to drop out. They'll have no momentum going into New Hampshire and no chance of doing well in later primaries (and in the caes of Gephardt, no money left).

If you're asking on what I base my Dean-Gephardt-Edwards-Kerry predicted finish in Iowa, mostly my gut instict based on each candidate's ground game, organization and poll results.

[Pubbie]

"If you're asking on what I base my Dean-Gephardt-Edwards-Kerry predicted finish in Iowa, mostly my gut instict based on each candidate's ground game, organization and poll results."

Which polls have you been looking at?

Supposedly the most accurate poll with the right methodology was The LA Times poll - and that showed Dean winning with 29% of the total vote.