I'm afraid you're right, if job creation doesn't pick up pretty soon. If it does, Dubya should win, but maybe by less than a landslide. Kerry will try to walk a tightrope and contend Bush doesn't know what he's doing in Iraq and the war was unjust, while simultaneously not saying he'd withdraw from Iraq. This could be seen by the mushy middle as the talking out of both sides of his mouth that it is, or as a more "sophisticated" approach to foreign policy. If the Bush team just assumes everyone will see it the first way, they're probably miscalculating (again). A skillful campaign should knock him off the tightrope.