[deport]

Rasmussen blew it big time in 2000. So at this stage I don't trust his polling... Scott has made corrections and time will tell how accurate they were.... But you are correct that a one shot poll isn't the way to look at things over the long run. Here's some locations of polls showing long term job approval and favorability ratings.

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/NEW_POLLS/polls-GWB_JA.html .. ratings since inauguration

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html

[DrDeb]

"Rasmussen blew it big time in 2000. So at this stage I don't trust his polling... Scott has made corrections and time will tell how accurate they were"


3 points:

1.) Actually, Rasmussen's predictions could have been 'right on'; however, we'll never know because the alphabet networks called Florida before the polls closed in Florida/the SouthWest/West [NOTE: This early call cost the President votes not only in Florida, but also in the Southwest and West -- as Guilliani stated earlier this week, the early call cost the President the popular vote and at least 3 states!]

2.) Zogby, the only pollster who supposedly called the 2000
elections correctly (read #1) completely blew 2002, e.g., he called Florida a 'toss-up' the morning of the election and Gov Bush won by double digits!

3.) ALL tracking polls (particularly those of LIKELY VOTERS) are more accurate/reliable than one-shot polls of the general public. Rasmussen's current tracking poll is consistent with others that I watch but can't mention because they aren't meant for public consumption (if you get my meaning)!

ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVE: PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH IS THE ONLY PRESIDENT IN THE MODERN ERA TO AVOID POLLING BELOW 50% IN A GALLUP POLL -- During their first terms, both Presidents Reagan and Clinton earned 'Gallup' job approval ratings in the 30s/40s OVER 50% of the time!

[BTW: I really enjoy reading your insightful posts! Keep up the GREAT work!]