Dean victorious in D.C. primary

Washington Times ^ | 1/14/04 | Brian DeBose

[kattracks]

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean won the District's nonbinding Democratic presidential primary last night in an election that was supposed to draw attention to the city but was marked by average turnout for a presidential primary.

The Rev. Al Sharpton, seen as Mr. Dean's biggest challenge, conceded the contest just before 11 p.m. He told supporters at his postelection party at Republic Gardens restaurant on U Street that Mr. Dean had too much institutional strength.

[BroncosFan]

Note the reference to the Lucky Bar.

[dangus]

Sooooo....

Turnout stayed at only 8%, no higher than when the primary was held in May... True to soviet style, only one major candidate -- Dean -- ran... Al Sharpton actually had himself photographed breaking campaign laws... The theme of the primary was how unjust it is that DC's congressional vote doesn't count, so they ran a primary that's illegal (by party rules), so the votes don't count... DC couldn't've done better showing why they're not ready for statehood.

By the way, Dean was expected to win big... Sharpton finished closer than expected.

[Brandon]

With 124 of 142 precincts reporting, Mr. Dean had 42 percent of the vote and Mr. Sharpton had 35 percent. Among the other major candidates on the ballot, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois had 12 percent and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio garnered 8 percent.

Moseley-Braun seems to be accomplishing her mission (at least so far): to prevent Sharpton from coming in first in any primary with a large number of black voters.

[dangus]

In November, polls showed Dean leading Sharpton, 27-4, with voters given a choice of all nine ring-wraiths. Now, you'd think that with all the other white guys droping out, and Sharpton expending no funds, Dean would hold that lead... the actual results were Dean over Sharpton by only 45-37, with Mosely Braun at 12. This suggests Dean couldn't bring out the vote.

Democrats tend to be much more apolitical, and also tend to vote for who the TV tells them to. And of course, the TV-led also are less committed. I wonder if Dean's support -- beyond the mauve-haired, nose-pierced freaks -- tends to be these apathetics TV voters. If so, he may see weak turnout. If that happens:

Iowa (5 representatives*): Goes to Gephardt
New Hampshire (2): Goes to Dean, but by a thin margin... Polls have Clark closing in fast.
South Carolina (6): Clark pulling past Dean
Arizona (6): Clark
Missouri (8): Gephardt, still by a lot
New Mexico (3): Unknown (few polls done)
Oklahoma (5): Clark
Delaware (1): Does it matter?

Clark walks away from the first eight states with a lead; Gephardt holds in there as far as delegates. Campaign swings towards the first megastate, Michigan, with Gephardt looking competitive as the union man in a union state.

Come the March 2nd mega-primary, You've got three major candidates, Gephardt, Dean and Clark, still competitive, with Sharpton getting a fixed percentage (around 5?). No way anyone walks out with 50%. You can throw the losers' delegates at the front-runners, but I don't think Edward's, Lieberman's, and Kerry's delegates will add up to much.

Surprise, surprise... it could be a long, soctly campaign. tee-hee!

(* I just use reps as a measure of the size of the state; this has nothing to do with the apportionment of delegates.)

[Brandon]

with Sharpton getting a fixed percentage (around 5?).

Sharpton will get more than 5% in SC; bank on it.

For the rest of your scenario, I think it leave Dick Gephardt on life support -- if all he manages to do is win Iowa and Missouri, while Clark and Dean divide up the rest, he won't be competitive in the March Super Tuesday.

[dagnabbit]

Why do I suspect she'll being paying in cash for about the next 10 years?

[dangus]

Oh, I certainly agree Sharpton will get more than 5% in SC, but he'll get less in AZ, NM, DE. BY "fixed," I meant that whatever happens between now and then won't change how he does; the amount he gets in each state will vary greatly.

I also agree Gephardt will be on life support. He doesn't have the campaign cash. But while he won't be likely to win, he'll keep the winner's total well below 50%, he'll pick up several delegates and he'll be able to bargain what becomes of them. If no-one gets 50% and Gephardt and Sharpton keep their delegates, we get a brokered convention. No-one will let that happen, as it would spell disaster for the Democrats, but the threat of it happening gives Gephardt clout.

[woofer]

I also agree Gephardt will be on life support. He doesn't have the campaign cash.

Maybe L'il dickie can mortgage some of the property in Missouri that he owns to raise some cash, like Kerry did.

Um, sorry. L'il dickie doesn't own any property in Missouri. He just keeps the lease on his Mom's old apartment. Only owns East Coast properties.