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Blind Into Baghdad
The Atlantic Monthly ^ | January/February 2004 | James Fallows

Posted on 01/13/2004 5:33:50 PM PST by optimistically_conservative

The U.S. occupation of Iraq is a debacle not because the government did no planning but because a vast amount of expert planning was willfully ignored by the people in charge. The inside story of a historic failure

On a Friday afternoon last November, I met Douglas Feith in his office at the Pentagon to discuss what has happened in Iraq. Feith's title is undersecretary of defense for policy, which places him, along with several other undersecretaries, just below Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz in the Pentagon's hierarchy. Informally he is seen in Washington as "Wolfowitz's Wolfowitz"—that is, as a deputy who has a wide range of responsibilities but is clearly identified with one particular policy. That policy is bringing regime change to Iraq—a goal that both Wolfowitz and Feith strongly advocated through the 1990s. To opponents of the war in Iraq, Feith is one of several shadowy, Rasputinlike figures who are shaping U.S. policy. He is seen much the way enemies of the Clinton Administration saw Hillary Clinton. Others associated with the Bush Administration who are seen this way include the consultant Richard Perle; Lewis "Scooter" Libby, the chief of staff for Vice President Dick Cheney; and the Vice President himself. What these officials have in common is their presumably great private influence and—even in the case of the Vice President—their limited public visibility and accountability.

In person Douglas Feith is nothing like Rasputin. Between a Reagan-era stint in the Pentagon and his current job he was a Washington lawyer for fifteen years, and he answered my questions with a lawyer's affability in the face of presumed disagreement. I could be biased in Feith's favor, because he was the most senior Administration official who granted my request for an interview about postwar Iraq. Like Donald Rumsfeld, Feith acts and sounds younger than many others of his age (fifty). But distinctly unlike Rumsfeld at a press conference, Feith in this interview did not seem at all arrogant or testy. His replies were relatively candid and unforced, in contrast to the angry or relentlessly on-message responses that have become standard from senior Administration officials. He acknowledged what was "becoming the conventional wisdom" about the Administration's failure to plan adequately for events after the fall of Baghdad, and then explained—with animation, dramatic pauses, and gestures—why he thought it was wrong.

Feith offered a number of specific illustrations of what he considered underappreciated successes. Some were familiar —the oil wells weren't on fire, Iraqis didn't starve or flee—but others were less so. For instance, he described the Administration's careful effort to replace old Iraqi dinars, which carried Saddam Hussein's image ("It's interesting how important that is, and it ties into the whole issue of whether people think that Saddam might be coming back"), with a new form of currency, without causing a run on the currency.

But mainly he challenged the premise of most critics: that the Administration could have done a better job of preparing for the consequences of victory. When I asked what had gone better than expected, and what had gone worse, he said, "We don't exactly deal in 'expectations.' Expectations are too close to 'predictions.' We're not comfortable with predictions. It is one of the big strategic premises of the work that we do."

The limits of future knowledge, Feith said, were of special importance to Rumsfeld, "who is death to predictions." "His big strategic theme is uncertainty," Feith said. "The need to deal strategically with uncertainty. The inability to predict the future. The limits on our knowledge and the limits on our intelligence."

In practice, Feith said, this meant being ready for whatever proved to be the situation in postwar Iraq. "You will not find a single piece of paper ... If anybody ever went through all of our records—and someday some people will, presumably—nobody will find a single piece of paper that says, 'Mr. Secretary or Mr. President, let us tell you what postwar Iraq is going to look like, and here is what we need plans for.' If you tried that, you would get thrown out of Rumsfeld's office so fast—if you ever went in there and said, 'Let me tell you what something's going to look like in the future,' you wouldn't get to your next sentence!"

"This is an important point," he said, "because of this issue of What did we believe? ... The common line is, nobody planned for security because Ahmed Chalabi told us that everything was going to be swell." Chalabi, the exiled leader of the Iraqi National Congress, has often been blamed for making rosy predictions about the ease of governing postwar Iraq. "So we predicted that everything was going to be swell, and we didn't plan for things not being swell." Here Feith paused for a few seconds, raised his hands with both palms up, and put on a "Can you believe it?" expression. "I mean—one would really have to be a simpleton. And whatever people think of me, how can anybody think that Don Rumsfeld is that dumb? He's so evidently not that dumb, that how can people write things like that?" He sounded amazed rather than angry.

No one contends that Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz, or Douglas Feith, or the Administration as a whole is dumb. The wisdom of their preparations for the aftermath of military victory in Iraq is the question. Feith's argument was a less defensive-sounding version of the Administration's general response to criticisms of its postwar policy: Life is uncertain, especially when the lid comes off a long-tyrannized society. American planners did about as well as anyone could in preparing for the unforeseeable. Anyone who says otherwise is indulging in lazy, unfair second-guessing. "The notion that there was a memo that was once written, that if we had only listened to that memo, all would be well in Iraq, is so preposterous," Feith told me.

The notion of a single memo's changing history is indeed farfetched. The idea that a substantial body of knowledge could have improved postwar prospects is not. The Administration could not have known everything about what it would find in Iraq. But it could have—and should have—done far more than it did.

Almost everything, good and bad, that has happened in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime was the subject of extensive pre-war discussion and analysis. This is particularly true of what have proved to be the harshest realities for the United States since the fall of Baghdad: that occupying the country is much more difficult than conquering it; that a breakdown in public order can jeopardize every other goal; that the ambition of patiently nurturing a new democracy is at odds with the desire to turn control over to the Iraqis quickly and get U.S. troops out; that the Sunni center of the country is the main security problem; that with each passing day Americans risk being seen less as liberators and more as occupiers, and targets.

All this, and much more, was laid out in detail and in writing long before the U.S. government made the final decision to attack. Even now the collective efforts at planning by the CIA, the State Department, the Army and the Marine Corps, the United States Agency for International Development, and a wide variety of other groups inside and outside the government are underappreciated by the public. The one pre-war effort that has received substantial recent attention, the State Department's Future of Iraq project, produced thousands of pages of findings, barely one paragraph of which has until now been quoted in the press. The Administration will be admired in retrospect for how much knowledge it created about the challenge it was taking on. U.S. government predictions about postwar Iraq's problems have proved as accurate as the assessments of pre-war Iraq's strategic threat have proved flawed.

But the Administration will be condemned for what it did with what was known. The problems the United States has encountered are precisely the ones its own expert agencies warned against. Exactly what went wrong with the occupation will be studied for years—or should be. The missteps of the first half year in Iraq are as significant as other classic and carefully examined failures in foreign policy, including John Kennedy's handling of the Bay of Pigs invasion, in 1961, and Lyndon Johnson's decision to escalate U.S. involvement in Vietnam, in 1965. The United States withstood those previous failures, and it will withstand this one. Having taken over Iraq and captured Saddam Hussein, it has no moral or practical choice other than to see out the occupation and to help rebuild and democratize the country. But its missteps have come at a heavy cost. And the ongoing financial, diplomatic, and human cost of the Iraq occupation is the more grievous in light of advance warnings the government had.

Before September 11, 2001: The Early Days

Concern about Saddam Hussein pre-dated the 9/11 attacks and even the inauguration of George W. Bush. In 1998 Congress passed and President Bill Clinton signed the Iraq Liberation Act, which declared that "it should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power." During the 2000 presidential campaign Al Gore promised to support groups working to unseat Saddam Hussein. In the week before Bush took office, Nicholas Lemann reported in The New Yorker that "the idea of overthrowing Saddam is not an idle fantasy—or, if it is, it's one that has lately occupied the minds of many American officials, including people close to George W. Bush." But the intellectual case for regime change, argued during the Clinton years by some Democrats and notably by Paul Wolfowitz, then the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, shifted clearly toward operational planning after the destruction of the World Trade Center.

For much of the public this case for war against Iraq rested on an assumed connection (though this was never demonstrated, and was officially disavowed by the President) between Saddam Hussein's regime and the terrorist hijackers. Within the government the case was equally compelling but different. September 11 had shown that the United States was newly vulnerable; to protect itself it had to fight terrorists at their source; and because Saddam Hussein's regime was the leading potential source of future "state-sponsored" terrorism, it had become an active threat, whether or not it played any role in 9/11. The very next day, September 12, 2001, James Woolsey, who had been Clinton's first CIA director, told me that no matter who proved to be responsible for this attack, the solution had to include removing Saddam Hussein, because he was so likely to be involved next time. A military planner inside the Pentagon later told me that on September 13 his group was asked to draw up scenarios for an assault on Iraq, not just Afghanistan.

Soon after becoming the Army Chief of Staff, in 1999, General Eric Shinseki had begun ordering war-game exercises to judge strategies and manpower needs for possible combat in Iraq. This was not because he assumed a war was imminent. He thought that the greater Caspian Sea region, including Iraq, would present a uniquely difficult challenge for U.S. troops, because of its geography and political tensions. After 9/11, Army war games involving Iraq began in earnest.

In his first State of the Union address, on January 29, 2002, President Bush said that Iraq, Iran, and North Korea were an "axis of evil" that threatened world peace. "By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States."

By the time of this speech efforts were afoot not simply to remove Saddam Hussein but also to imagine what Iraq would be like when he was gone. In late October of 2001, while the U.S. military was conducting its rout of the Taliban from Afghanistan, the State Department had quietly begun its planning for the aftermath of a "transition" in Iraq. At about the time of the "axis of evil" speech, working groups within the department were putting together a list of postwar jobs and topics to be considered, and possible groups of experts to work on them.

One Year Before the War: The "Future of Iraq"

Thus was born the Future of Iraq project, whose existence is by now well known, but whose findings and potential impact have rarely been reported and examined. The State Department first publicly mentioned the project in March of 2002, when it quietly announced the lineup of the working groups. At the time, media attention was overwhelmingly directed toward Afghanistan, where Operation Anaconda, the half-successful effort to kill or capture al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters, was under way.

For several months before announcing the project the State Department had been attempting to coordinate the efforts of the many fractious Iraqi exile organizations. The Future of Iraq project held the potential for harnessing, and perhaps even harmonizing, the expertise available from the exile groups.

It was also in keeping with a surprisingly well established U.S. government tradition of preparing for postwar duties before there was a clear idea of when fighting would begin, let alone when it would end. Before the United States entered World War II, teams at the Army War College were studying what went right and wrong when American doughboys occupied Germany after World War I. Within months of the attack on Pearl Harbor a School of Military Government had been created, at the University of Virginia, to plan for the occupation of both Germany and Japan. In 1995, while U.S. negotiators, led by Richard Holbrooke, were still working at the Dayton peace talks to end the war in the Balkans, World Bank representatives were on hand to arrange loans for the new regimes.

Contemplating postwar plans posed a problem for those who, like many in the State Department, were skeptical of the need for war. Were they making a war more likely if they prepared for its aftermath? Thomas Warrick, the State Department official who directed the Future of Iraq project, was considered to be in the antiwar camp. But according to associates, he explained the importance of preparing for war by saying, "I'm nervous that they're actually going to do it—and the day after they'll turn to us and ask, 'Now what?'" So he pushed ahead with the project, setting up numerous conferences and drafting sessions that would bring together teams of exiles—among them Kanan Makiya, the author of the influential anti-Saddam book Republic of Fear, first published in 1989. A small number of "international advisers," mainly from the United States, were also assigned to the teams. Eventually there would be seventeen working groups, designed systematically to cover what would be needed to rebuild the political and economic infrastructure of the country. "Democratic Principles and Procedures" was the name of one of the groups, which was assigned to suggest the legal framework for a new government; Makiya would write much of its report. The "Transitional Justice" group was supposed to work on reparations, amnesty, and de-Baathification laws. Groups studying economic matters included "Public Finance," "Oil and Energy," and "Water, Agriculture and Environment."

In May of 2002 Congress authorized $5 million to fund the project's studies. In the flurry of news from Afghanistan the project went unnoticed in the press until June, when the State Department announced that the first meetings would take place in July. "The role of the U.S. government and State Department is to see what the Iraqis and Iraqi-Americans want," Warrick said at a conference on June 1, 2002. "The impetus for change comes from [Iraqis], not us. This is the job of Iraqis inside and outside."

That same day President Bush delivered a graduation speech at West Point, giving a first look at the doctrine of pre-emptive war. He told the cadets, to cheers, "Our security will require all Americans to be forward-looking and resolute, to be ready for pre-emptive action when necessary to defend our liberty and to defend our lives." Later in the summer the doctrine was elaborated in a new National Security Strategy, which explained that since "rogue states" could not be contained or deterred, they needed to be destroyed before they could attack.

Whenever National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was interviewed that summer, she talked mainly about the thinking behind the new policy. When Vice President Dick Cheney was interviewed, he talked mainly about Saddam Hussein's defiance of international law. But when Secretary of State Colin Powell was interviewed, he constantly stressed the value of an international approach to the problem and the need to give UN arms inspectors adequate time to do their job.

War with Iraq was not inevitable at this point, but it seemed more and more likely. Daily conversation in Washington, which usually reverts to "So, who do you think will be the next President?," switched instead to "So, when do you think we're going to war?"

It was in these circumstances that the Future of Iraq project's working groups deliberated. Most of the meetings were in Washington. Some were in London, and one session, in early September, took place in Surrey, where representatives of a dozen mutually suspicious exile groups discussed prospects for democratic coexistence when Saddam Hussein was gone. (Along with Chalabi's INC the meeting included several rival Kurdish groups, Assyrian and Turkomen organizations, the Iraqi Constitutional Monarchy Movement, and others.)

The project did not overcome all the tensions among its members, and the results of its deliberations were uneven. Three of its intended working groups never actually met—including, ominously, "Preserving Iraq's Cultural Heritage." The "Education" group finally produced a report only six pages long, in contrast to many hundreds of pages from most others. Some recommendations were quirky or reflected the tastes of the individual participants who drafted them. A report titled "Free Media" proposed that all Iraqi journalists be taken out of the country for a month-long re-education process: "Those who 'get it' go back as reporters; others would be retired or reassigned." A group that was considering ways of informing Iraq about the realities of democracy mentioned Baywatch and Leave It to Beaver as information sources that had given Iraqis an imprecise understanding of American society. It recommended that a new film, Colonial America: Life in a Theocracy, be shot, noting, "The Puritan experiments provide amazing parallels with current Moslem fundamentalism. The ultimate failures of these US experiments can also be vividly illustrated—witch trials, intolerance, etc."

But whatever may have been unrealistic or factional about these efforts, even more of what the project created was impressive. The final report consisted of thirteen volumes of recommendations on specific topics, plus a one-volume summary and overview. These I have read—and I read them several months into the occupation, when it was unfairly easy to judge how well the forecast was standing up. (Several hundred of the 2,500 pages were in Arabic, which sped up the reading process.) The report was labeled "For Official Use Only"—an administrative term that implies confidentiality but has no legal significance. The State Department held the report closely until, last fall, it agreed to congressional requests to turn over the findings.

Most of the project's judgments look good in retrospect—and virtually all reveal a touching earnestness about working out the details of reconstructing a society. For instance, one of the thickest volumes considered the corruption endemic in Iraqi life and laid out strategies for coping with it. (These included a new "Iraqi Government Code of Ethics," which began, "Honesty, integrity, and fairness are the fundamental values for the people of Iraq.") The overview volume, which appears to have been composed as a series of PowerPoint charts, said that the United States was undertaking this effort because, among other things, "detailed public planning" conveys U.S. government "seriousness" and the message that the U.S. government "wants to learn from past regime change experiences."

For their part, the Iraqi participants emphasized several points that ran through all the working groups' reports. A recurring theme was the urgency of restoring electricity and water supplies as soon as possible after regime change. The first item in the list of recommendations from the "Water, Agriculture and Environment" group read, "Fundamental importance of clean water supplies for Iraqis immediately after transition. Key to coalition/community relations." One of the groups making economic recommendations wrote, "Stressed importance of getting electrical grid up and running immediately—key to water systems, jobs. Could go a long way to determining Iraqis' attitudes toward Coalition forces."

A second theme was the need to plan carefully for the handling and demobilization of Iraq's very sizable military. On the one hand, a functioning army would be necessary for public order and, once coalition forces withdrew, for the country's defense. ("Our vision of the future is to build a democratic civil society. In order to make this vision a reality, we need to have an army that can work alongside this new society.") On the other hand, a large number of Saddam's henchmen would have to be removed. The trick would be to get rid of the leaders without needlessly alienating the ordinary troops—or leaving them without income. One group wrote, "All combatants who are included in the demobilization process must be assured by their leaders and the new government of their legal rights and that new prospects for work and education will be provided by the new system." Toward this end it laid out a series of steps the occupation authorities should take in the "disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration" process. Another group, in a paper on democratic principles, warned, "The decommissioning of hundreds of thousands of trained military personnel that [a rapid purge] implies could create social problems."

Next the working groups emphasized how disorderly Iraq would be soon after liberation, and how difficult it would be to get the country on the path to democracy—though that was where it had to go. "The removal of Saddam's regime will provide a power vacuum and create popular anxieties about the viability of all Iraqi institutions," a paper on rebuilding civil society said. "The traumatic and disruptive events attendant to the regime change will affect all Iraqis, both Saddam's conspirators and the general populace." Another report warned more explicitly that "the period immediately after regime change might offer these criminals the opportunity to engage in acts of killing, plunder and looting." In the short term the occupying forces would have to prevent disorder. In the long term, according to a report written by Kanan Makiya, they would need to recognize that "the extent of the Iraqi totalitarian state, its absolute power and control exercised from Baghdad, not to mention the terror used to enforce compliance, cannot be overestimated in their impact on the Iraqi psyche and the attendant feeling of fear, weakness, and shame." Makiya continued, "These conditions and circumstances do not provide a strong foundation on which to build new institutions and a modern nation state."

Each of the preceding themes would seem to imply a long, difficult U.S. commitment in Iraq. America should view its involvement in Iraq, the summary report said, not as it had Afghanistan, which was left to stew in lightly supervised warlordism, but as it had Germany and Japan, which were rebuilt over many years. But nearly every working group stressed one other point: the military occupation itself had to be brief. "Note: Military government idea did not go down well," one chart in the summary volume said. The "Oil and Energy" group presented a "key concept": "Iraqis do not work for American contractors; Americans are seen assisting Iraqis."

Americans are often irritated by the illogic of "resentful dependence" by weaker states. South Koreans, for example, complain bitterly about U.S. soldiers in their country but would complain all the more bitterly if the soldiers were removed. The authors of the Future of Iraq report could by those standards also be accused of illogical thinking, in wanting U.S. support but not wanting U.S. control. Moreover, many of the project's members had a bias that prefigured an important source of postwar tension: they were exiles who considered themselves the likeliest beneficiaries if the United States transferred power to Iraqis quickly—even though, precisely because of their exile, they had no obvious base of support within Iraq.

To skip ahead in the story: As chaos increased in Baghdad last summer, the chief U.S. administrator, L. Paul "Jerry" Bremer, wrestled constantly with a variant of this exile paradox. The Iraqi Governing Council, whose twenty-five members were chosen by Americans, was supposed to do only the preparatory work for an elected Iraqi government. But the greater the pressure on Bremer for "Iraqification," the more tempted he was to give in to the council's demand that he simply put it in charge without waiting for an election. More than a year earlier, long before combat began, the explicit recommendations and implicit lessons of the Future of Iraq project had given the U.S. government a very good idea of what political conflicts it could expect in Iraq.

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iraq; iraqifreedom; jamesfallows
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To: Lion in Winter
Yup, Just like the RAT who the democrats are saying represents the position of the War College
21 posted on 01/13/2004 6:32:11 PM PST by MJY1288 (WITHOUT DOUBLE STANDARDS, LIBERALS WOULDN'T HAVE ANY !)
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To: optimistically_conservative
Other than the ability of a small number of baathists and terrorists to conduct hit-and-run attacks, WHAT HAS GONE WRONG IN IRAQ???!?

Nearly everything under the power of the administration in the war has gone RIGHT.

22 posted on 01/13/2004 6:44:50 PM PST by WOSG (I dont want the GOP to become a circular firing squad and the Socialist Democrats a majority.)
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To: optimistically_conservative
You can't swing a cat in Washington without hitting a former undersecreatary of something. I think I heard this guy on a local radio show once and he was abbrassive and obnoxious. He was one of these people that starts talking and never shuts up.
23 posted on 01/13/2004 6:44:56 PM PST by anncoulteriscool
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To: optimistically_conservative
If the Iraq "failure" was replicated in Vietnam in the 1960s, the cold war would have ended by 1967.

24 posted on 01/13/2004 6:52:37 PM PST by WOSG (I dont want the GOP to become a circular firing squad and the Socialist Democrats a majority.)
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To: optimistically_conservative
Let me see...the war is a "debacle". In less than ten months we've defeated the Iraqi army, deposed Hussein and put him in chains, began the establishment of democracy in Iraq, and started a chain reaction of acquiescence to our demands in nearby countries who've decided that discretion is the better part of valor. I believe we need a few more "debacles" like this one.
25 posted on 01/13/2004 6:53:50 PM PST by driftless ( For life-long happiness, learn how to play the accordion.)
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To: optimistically_conservative
This is funny, because according to the former Massad chief, who happens to be an expert on the Mid-East, this war in Iraq is the most extraordinary event to have occured in the last 100 years in the Mid-East. In just a few short months, the landscape has completely changed, as Libya and Syria are not only discussing giving up their WMDs, they are also engaged in serious dialog with Israel. Iran and N. Korea who were obstinent(sp) about their nuclear weapons programs, are now having second thoughts. As this gentleman said, the public picture of Saddam in the custody of US soldiers had to be one of the most frightening scenes for the dictators in this region. And I believe he is right--because in the Mid-East, might makes right, whether we like it or not.

Every American death in Iraq is a tragedy, but after "only" 10 months in Iraq with less that 500 fatalities, these people's perspective is a little warped. This is result of our fast-food/microwave society that demands instant results and gratification...and most of the time, without any sacrifice. Please...to make any proclamations at this point about the failure, or success, in Iraq is just playing politics.
26 posted on 01/13/2004 7:00:30 PM PST by cwb (ç†)
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To: Lion in Winter
The Michael Kelly would never have allowed The Atlantic to be taken over by liars. But the magazine seems to be in the thrall of the Soros gang.
27 posted on 01/13/2004 7:03:31 PM PST by ingeborg
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To: ingeborg
The late Michael Kelly that is.
28 posted on 01/13/2004 7:04:05 PM PST by ingeborg
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To: Cautor
Fallows was a Harvardian Rhodent Scholar, eh??

Some of us recall when Rhodes Scholars actually were well-rounded, intelligent and self-actualized people rather than the PC 'droids of recent years, er, decades .... Ditto Harvard grads ....

What has become of the Academy?

29 posted on 01/13/2004 7:32:09 PM PST by dodger
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To: optimistically_conservative
The mind boggles at the arrogance in the account ..

"The U.S. occupation of Iraq is a debacle ... " it starts off with a false main premise and goes downhill from there.

The presumption that we needed 400,000 troops to be in Iraq has been shown false by events. 130,000 is doing the trick.

It really boils down to "The Bush administration is incompetent because they didnt listen to the wonderful ideas of some various outsiders and the smart insiders who know so much more than those boobs Rumsfeld and Cheney ..."

but the nitpicking and anti-Rumsfeld/anti-Pentagon arrogance & hypocrisy really grates. Let take just one snippet ...

"The NGO representatives had no fault to find with the choice of Garner, but they were concerned, because his organization would be a subunit of the Pentagon rather than an independent operation or part of a civilian agency. "We had been pushing constantly to have reconstruction authority based in the State Department," Joel Charny told me. He and his colleagues were told by Wendy Chamberlin, a former ambassador to Pakistan who had become USAID's assistant administrator for the area including Iraq, that the NGOs should view Garner's appointment as a victory. After all, Garner was a civilian, and his office would draw representatives from across the government. "We said, 'C'mon, Wendy, his office is in the Pentagon!'" Charny says. Jim Bishop, a former U.S. ambassador who now works for InterAction, pointed out that the NGOs, like the U.S. government, were still hoping that other governments might help to fund humanitarian efforts. Bishop asked rhetorically, "Who from the international community is going to fund reconstruction run through the Pentagon?" "

Ah, so we were supposed to let the tail wag the dog and not have the pentagon do anything wrt post-war Iraq, just to satisfy the UN and other outsiders? What idiocy!

In the end of course, USA has shouldered the financial and humanitarian burden anyway. NGOs are non-existent practically in Iraq.

Now let me state a few things that ARE useful in this article: First it totally explodes the myth that planning didnt happen or that the administration didnt have a plan; yes they did have a plan. Some folks DIDNT LIKE THE PLAN and are complaining BECAUSE THEY WANTED A HUGE EXPENSIVE UN-STYLE OCCUPATION BY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS, replete with masses of well-funded NGOs handing out the dole to an Iraqi Welfare State. But Rummy didnt want it. Cheney and the administration didnt want it. The Bush team wanted a leaner occupation force that left Iraqis to their own devices as much as possible.

The Administration is indeed in a different place from the UN-types, the State Dept Liberals and the NGOs about occupying countries. BULLY FOR THEM! This sent a clear message - yes, it may have sent a message to Iraqis for a week or too that looting can happen ... but over time it has sent a positive message to Iraq: "Iraq is your country and you are responsible for it." You cant build freedom by turning a country into a refugee camp.

What Fallows doesnt say is that now we already have 200,000 new Iraqi security forces. He doesnt say that many of the recruits came from the old Iraq army anyway, so the complaint about disbanding the army is not a fundamental issue, but about tactical decision. Nor does he mention the cogent reasons for not keeping the old army - untrained, a *draft* army (do you want to keep people against their will as you build "freedom"?), and of course an instrument of saddam's terror. I too wondered about disbanding the Iraqi army. But it's a call you could make either way, and in the end the new Iraqi army is more effective and is not tarnished with saddam's old regime. Good. New money, new army, new Govt, new ministers, new thinking, New Iraq. Saddam's entire govt, palaces, everything, will be gone. Even him.

This article is not serious journalism. If it was, Fallows would at least grant the benefit of the doubt on the coalition's success in avoiding oil fires, refugee crises; he'd at least mention that in many ways May-to-December was *not post-war* but was still a war-time period where baathists still tried hit-and-run attacks; he'd point out the huge POLITICAL SUCCESS of getting new Iraqi Governing Council up and running and having local Govts throughout Iraq.

Rather, this is an attack piece from a former Carter administration official whose agenda is to defend practices of occupation that have now been discredited by the success in Iraq. Those successes - as in any war - comes not without a price or without messiness. But it is success nonetheless.


30 posted on 01/13/2004 7:36:24 PM PST by WOSG (I dont want the GOP to become a circular firing squad and the Socialist Democrats a majority.)
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To: cwboelter
Right.

"This is funny, because according to the former Massad chief, who happens to be an expert on the Mid-East, this war in Iraq is the most extraordinary event to have occured in the last 100 years in the Mid-East. In just a few short months, the landscape has completely changed, as Libya and Syria are not only discussing giving up their WMDs, they are also engaged in serious dialog with Israel. Iran and N. Korea who were obstinent(sp) about their nuclear weapons programs, are now having second thoughts."

Barring major setbacks, the Liberation of Iraq will prove to be a stunning and fabulous success at the strategic level. Our victory in the war already was a fantastic success, and the low-level conflict too, though bloody, is not proving of any strategic consequence *if we dont let it be*. (Now, with Democrats in charge, they would let the terrorists win and would bug out, turning a bloody conflict into a major strategic blinder that would cost us for decades to come.) Winning in Iraq is the strategic equivalent of us winning the liberation of Eastern Europe in the Cold War in the 1950s. It's not the whole 'war on terror' but at least now we are at the end of the beginning.

31 posted on 01/13/2004 7:42:03 PM PST by WOSG (I dont want the GOP to become a circular firing squad and the Socialist Democrats a majority.)
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To: WOSG
"The U.S. occupation of Iraq is a debacle ... " it starts off with a false main premise and goes downhill from there.

Exactly. Fallows initial premise is false. Or, at the very least, grossly premature. And his assertion is totally unsupported...resting on a foundation of air.

He has told us that the grass is blue. We are now to proceed forward on the assumption this premise is correct.

Simply awful analysis -- of a transparently partisan and mendacious nature.

If this article accurately represents the state of left-wing intellectual thought, they are in a sad condition, indeed.

32 posted on 01/13/2004 8:05:36 PM PST by okie01 (www.ArmorforCongress.com...because Congress isn't for the morally halt and the mentally lame.)
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To: gaspar
Agree, thanks for your perspective.
33 posted on 01/13/2004 9:52:37 PM PST by optimistically_conservative (A couple of guys with boxcutters in Germany posed no imminent threat until Sept. 11 2001)
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To: ingeborg
Amen. During Kelly's rein, it was the best magazine in the country. Bar none. I've been so willing to cut 'em a break of late, but this issue clinched it -- it's gone bad. None only is the liberal cant obvious, it's two big features this month are derivative of a much better recent cover story on the occupation/liberation in The New Yorker (which, under David Remnick, is now readable again and seems to understand the evil of totalitarian regimes).
34 posted on 01/13/2004 10:05:54 PM PST by BroncosFan (Pat Toomey for Senate!)
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To: WOSG
During the "peace" of the 90s the State Dept. (Halfbright/Wholecrook) ran the Pentagon by calling the shots ("Why have a military if we're not going to use it").

In this administration the Pentagon drives foreign policy during war.

Fallows sees a problem with that.

I don't.
35 posted on 01/13/2004 10:06:57 PM PST by optimistically_conservative (A couple of guys with boxcutters in Germany posed no imminent threat until Sept. 11 2001)
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bump to read later
36 posted on 01/15/2004 5:49:07 PM PST by meema
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To: Batrachian
I think you are missing the point. The most important time of an occupation is the first months. During this time, nothing that was forseen as a possible problem was adaquetly prepared for. It so happens that what was forseen as possible problems are indeed the problems we are having.

Yes, if we go in blind (not taking any of the findings information) then we can only do what we can when situations arise. And yes, our soldiers over there are doing a great job of that fire-fighting.

But don't fool yourself, Rumsfeld sent us to occupy Iraq unprepared. Worse, he did it willingly.
37 posted on 01/28/2004 9:25:03 AM PST by bothsides
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To: driftless
Ummm, the article says the OCCUPATION has been a debacle, not the WAR. Read the article.
38 posted on 01/28/2004 9:26:47 AM PST by bothsides
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To: bothsides
I didn't say we where prepared for the occupation. I only said that you can't declare something like this a total failure after 7 months.

It also depends on what you think the goals where. If you think that the main goal of Operation Iraqi Freedom was to depose Saddam Hussein then you have to agree that from that point of view the mission was an unqualified success since Saddam Hussein was, indeed, deposed.

I'm starting to think that this was, in fact, the only real goal of the war. Everything else is window dressing, and if Iraq turns into an Islamofascist regime allied with Iran then I have to ask if it was such a brilliant thing to do, after all.

39 posted on 01/28/2004 3:50:37 PM PST by Batrachian
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Comment #40 Removed by Moderator


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